Saturday, November 10, 2012

Friday Box Office: Skyfall does $33 million on opening day (s).

Oddly enough, despite the four years of hype and anticipation, plus the IMAX sneak-peak and respective price bump, Skyfall earned just a bit more than Quantum of Solace on its first Friday.  With $33 million in the bag (including its $2.2 million Thursday IMAX sneak day), it's just above the $27 million debut for Quantum of Solace.  Adjusted for inflation and the IMAX price bump, it barely sold more tickets.  On the plus side, this new entry is likely to have much better word of mouth and thus insure a larger multiplier both for the weekend and for the long-game.  I don't have much time so I'm going to make this quick.  The weekend multiplier comparisons are the last six 007 films, basically everything since 1995 when Pierce Brosnan kicked the films into the blockbuster age with GoldenEye back in 1995.  GoldenEye debuted with $26 million off a $8 million* opening day (3.25x) while Tomorrow Never Dies earned $8 million* on its first day heading towards a $25 million debut (3.125x).  The World Is Not Enough earned $12 million towards a $35 million opening (2.9x) while Die Another Day opened with $16 million towards a $47 million opening weekend (2.9x).  Casino Royale opened with $14 million and closed Sunday with $40 million (2.85x) while Quantum of Solace debuted with $27 million and closed the weekend with $67 million ($74 million adjusted for inflation and a 2.4x weekend multiplier).  Thus assuming the mostly disliked Quantum of Solace was a fluke (it dropped a bit on Saturday) but acknowledging a more front-loaded marketplace, we're looking at something between 2.6x and 2.9x for the weekend.  Thus Skyfall could open with between $86 million and $95 million for the weekend.  Obviously we'll know for sure tomorrow...

Scott Mendelson

*The opening days for GoldenEye and Tomorrow Never Dies are estimates based on my recollection, as I can't find opening day figures.  Alas ShowbizData doesn't allow you to dig into their daily box office archives.

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