Weekend Box Office (10/23/11): Paranormal Activity 3 scores record October debut with $52.6 million (but it's not the top horror opening).

Despite what everyone else is reporting, Paranormal Activity 3 (review) did not set a record this weekend for the biggest opening for a horror film.  Lest we forget, Hannibal (review) opened with $58 million in February of 2001, which was actually the biggest R-rated opening ever at the time.  Anyway, Paramount's threequel/prequel will have to settle with merely being the second- biggest horror debut ever, the eighth-biggest R-rated opening, and the top October launch.  Tragic, I know. The $5 million film grossed a massive $54 million this weekend, which is a 29% jump from Paranormal Activity 2's $40.6 million opening this time last year.  The film had a massively front loaded weekend, the ninth-biggest on record, with a mere 2.02x weekend multiplier.  Still, that was better than the 2.01x weekend multiplier for Paranormal Activity 2 last year (the sixth-smallest such multiplier).  The picture played 53% under-25 and 54% female.  Considering the film pulled just in $1.7 million more at midnight, the $26 million opening day (around $6 million more than Paranormal Activity 2's $20.6 million Friday) and $12 million jump in total opening weekend compared to the last film, there is a clear growth in this series.

Review: Paranormal Activity 3 (2011) proves that the third time is not the charm.

Paranormal Activity 3
2011
81 minutes
rated R

by Scott Mendelson

For better or worse, the Paranormal Activity series is the Where's Waldo? of horror films.  You know when the lights go down and a graphic pops up on the screen telling you what day it is that something SPOOKY is going to occur.  But since you don't know what it is, you somewhat nervously scan the screen for any clue at where the creepy sight or randomly loud noise might come from.  It's an effect that makes the film the closest thing to actually walking through a haunted house ("Hey, that door's unlocked... look out!"), which explains much of the franchise's appeal.  Half of the fun of this kind of movie is watching the crowded audience react like puppets at just the right moments.  It's ironic that this series, which arguably looks and sounds no better on a big screen than it would as a bootleg viewed on a smart phone, is one of the few that absolutely demands to be seen in the biggest, most packed theater one can find.  As a party movie, a game of sorts among friends or fellow moviegoers, it has its value.  But as a movie, this third installment is both a bit of a cop-out and, thanks to its status as a prequel, a bit of a narrative cheat.

Midnight Box Office (10/21/11): Paranormal Activity 3 scores $8 million in "midnight" shows. It's looking like a $48-52 million opening weekend.

I put the word "midnight" is quotes because Paramount was nice enough to offer 10pm shows in many theaters last night as well as the customary 12:01am screenings.  So, with the announcement that Paranormal Activity 3 made $8 million last night, I'm going to assume that they mean the 10pm and 12:01am shows.  While there may be some folks (like myself in fact) who checked out a 10pm screening who would not have bothered with a midnight showing, it stands to reason that most of the people who checked out a 10pm screening probably wouldn't have had much of a problem pulling a midnight shift either, so for the moment let's presume the effect of those blessed 10pm showings are negligible.  The math on this one is pretty easy.  If you recall, it was Paranormal Activity 2 and it's $6.3 million midnight gross this time last year that led me to start playing this game of 'midnight-to-weekend math'.  That sequel scored a record at the time for an R-rated midnight debut, which has since been beaten by the $10 million 12:01am showings of The Hangover part II.  Paranormal Activity 2, befitting its appeal as a midnight party movie (last night's audience was more fun than the movie itself), pulled in a hefty 15.5% of its $40.6 million weekend total at midnight.  A similar performance for this picture would give it an opening weekend total of $51 million.  So it stands to reason that the third picture should do about the same number, perhaps a little more due to progressive sequel-front-loading.  So, offhand, the opening weekend for Paranormal Activity 3 should fall somewhere between $48 million (if the number is 16.5% of its total) and $59 million (if the midnight number is just an unlikely 13.5% of its total).  Either way, Paramount has another cheap smash hit on its hand, which guarantees that we'll be seeing Paranormal Activity 4 this time next year.  Now I'm off to write my review.

Scott Mendelson     

Paranormal Activity 3 gets a surprisingly revealing teaser.

Considering how completely enshrouded in mystery the second film is, it's a little surprising that Paramount basically ups and reveals the primary plot in this moody and effective teaser.  This time around, it's being helmed by Henry Joost and Ariel Schulman, who broke out last year with the somewhat questionable (in regards to its 'non-fiction-ness') documentary Catfish.  I have no objection with the third film in this franchise being an 80s-set prequel, but I have to wonder where they will go after they'd allegedly explained much of the mystery in this alleged 'here's how it all began' third chapter.  I am genuinely curious to see A) if they actually shot the film on old-fashioned VHS camcorders and B) whether this series can maintain the consistency of the Saw franchise, which was flying high for five straight installments before crashing with the sixth (and ironically best) chapter back in 2009.  It took direct competition from the first Paranormal Activity to bring down Jigsaw.  What will be the next October-scheduled franchise to take down the poltergeists/demons from this series in a few years?  Anyway, this one opens on October 21st, which is the same weekend as the wide releases of the first two films.  As always, we'll see...

Scott Mendelson