When 'on track' becomes a 'disappointing': The perils of early box office reporting...

At 3:28pm yesterday, The Hollywood Reporter sent out links to an article regarding early box office estimates based purely on afternoon matinees on the East Coast.  In it, they claimed that Paramount's Footloose remake was on track to gross $20 million for the weekend, which was considered a solid win as tracking had put the film at between $15 million and $18 million going into Friday.  Yet by midnight, the numbers had been revised, both by The Hollywood Reporter and Deadline Hollywood.  Now the number is at around $5.57 million for Friday, which means that the 80s remake looks to gross around $16-17 million (of course, official Friday estimates will be out in a couple hours...).  So, as expected, Nikki Finke is screaming about how the number is 'disappointing', with yet another seemingly-invented quote from a studio executive about how the industry is 'DOOMED!'.  Yes, some of this is just Finke being Finke where every weekend is a failure and every movie is terrible.  But we have a situation where a film was 'doing better than expected' in the late afternoon, yet was a disappointment despite opening right in line with tracking because the earliest-of-early estimates were a bit over-inflated.  Yes yes, I know I spent the summer guessing the weekend box office grosses for major summer films based on midnight grosses, so perhaps I may be a hypocrite.  BUT, I didn't run around screaming 'bomb!' because a film's opening weekend didn't open right in line with my purely-for-fun midnight math.  As it is, I'd argue it's good news that an 80s remake that no one wanted and a prequel to an 80s horror film (which is in itself a remake of a 50s horror film) that no one didn't explode at the box office (The Thing looks to do around $10 million, give or take).  Maybe the world wants more than remakes and revamps of the movies they grew up with...

Scott Mendelson

Hollywood Reporter thinks no R-rated film has opened to $100 million, can't quite recall, can't be bothered to check.

Yes, The Hangover 2 is tracking to perhaps be the first R-rated film to open at or above $100 million in a Fri-Sun 3-day weekend.  Of course, the film is opening on a Thursday and has a Memorial Day Monday, so we'll see how that impacts the numbers soon enough.  But The Hollywood Reporter can't be bothered to check if any R-rated film has ever opened to $100 million before (nor can they be bothered to state whether the proposed $110 million number is from the Fri-Sun portion, or the whole five-day opening).  Quote: "No R-rated film has ever opened to $100 million or greater at least none that anyone can remember."  Yes, the great and illustrious Hollywood Reporter couldn't spend 30 seconds on Box Office Mojo to look into the accuracy of that statement.  For the record, it is true.  The biggest 3-day R-rated opening was The Matrix Reloaded with $91.7 million.  That film also opened on a Thursday, which gave the film a $134 million four-day opening weekend.  The only other R-rated opening weekend to approach $100 million was the five-day opening weekend of The Passion of the Christ.  It opened on a Wednesday and grossed $125 million by Sunday, with $83 million of that coming from the traditional Fri-Sun weekend. I knew those box office numbers off the top of my head.  Call it a gift or a curse, but I have an uncanny knack for remembering box office numbers. But you know what, Hollywood Reporter, I LOOKED IT UP.  Ya know, just to be safe.  You damn-well should have too.  Oh, and the fact that we haven't had a $100 million opener since November doesn't mean we're in a slump!  It just means that $100 million openers are still rare enough for them to be newsworthy.

Scott Mendelson