The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
2012165 minutes
rated PG-13
by Scott Mendelson
I don't know if seeing The Hobbit part 1 of 3 (teaser/trailer) in the much-discussed 48 frames-per-second diminished the viewing experience, but it certainly didn't help. Since it's the way Peter Jackson intended the film to be seen, it very much counts when judging the overall motion picture. It's neither the great savior of cinema that the likes of Peter Jackson or James Cameron would have you believe, but nor is it a bell weather of the 'death of cinema'. It is *different*, that's for sure. You get an unparalleled clarity of vision and a certain lifelike presentation, akin to looking at a window at 'real life'. The various CGI creatures look arguably more lifelike and the 3D is pretty flawless (although the screen looked even more vibrant when I took off the glasses, making me wish there had been a 48 fps 2D option). But for that clarity you lose a certain cinematic grandeur. Yes, certain introductory scenes look like live theater and yes there is an inconsistency of speed, as any number of moments will make one wonder if they're watching the film on 1.5x speed on their Playstation 3. Moreover, even during the action sequences, a few of which are indeed still impressive, resemble not so much epic struggles but rather like watching a staged recreation akin to Civil War reenactors. Especially during battle scenes set in open fields, it feels more like the finale of Role Models than a tent-pole action sequence. Ironically, it's a technology that may actually be better suited to character dramas that big-scale action. Your eyes do indeed adjust to the whole 'speed play' issue pretty quickly, but you never do become 'used' to the effect during the entire 165 minute running time.
Initial reports show that The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey earned $13 million from 3,100 screens at 12:01am last night, setting a record for December and surpassing the respective $8 million midnight gross earned by The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King way back in December 2003. It opens wide on over 4,000 screens consisting of 2,000 different viewing options today. Of course, said figure was nine years ago and without the 3D/IMAX ticket-price bump, but that's for another day. What this looks like for the weekend is pretty simple. The "prequel" is arguably heavily anticipated by hardcore-but less anticipated by the general moviegoer. I was at the midnight showings for The Two Towers and Return of the King, but nine years later, I'm merely catching an after-work screening with a friend, as much to see the 48 fps as see the film that I'm not all that excited for. Obviously some of that is me merely being an adult with a family and various adult responsibilities (four years ago, I ended up waiting until Saturday afternoon of its five-day opening weekend to see Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull), but part of that is merely the fact that this new film is squarely pitched to the hardcore fans. That's not a bad thing, it just means that the midnight screening (and opening Friday) will be more front loaded than the prior Lord of the Rings pictures. So we're looking at a midnight-to-weekend percentage of 14-20%, with a possibility that potential bad word of mouth (obviously speculative here) gives us a multiplier closer to the 22% of the latter Harry Potter/Twilight pictures. Realistically, The Hobbit is looking at an opening weekend of between $65 million and $93 million, with an off-chance of massive front loading giving the film something akin to a $59 million opening weekend. So let's be realistic and give it $80 million for now. 
