Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides crosses $200 million in 22 days. It won't match its budget domestically, but it may hit $1 billion worldwide.

Disney's Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides is the poster child for the overwhelming strength of overseas box office over the last couple years.  Here is a movie that is poised to become one of the fifteen biggest grossing movies of all time worldwide, yet it will likely not surpass its $250 million production budget in domestic grosses. But the film did cross the $200 million mark in 22 days, or merely three days faster than the first Pirates of the Caribbean back in 2003.  The prior sequels did it in nine days and eight days respectively, so this is indeed a franchise comedown on the domestic front.  Worldwide however, the film has already passed the $654 million grossed by Curse of the Black Pearl, with its sights set on the $963 million grossed by At World's End and the $1.066 billion grossed by Dead Man's Chest.  In terms of just foreign grosses, On Stranger Tides has grossed $615 million (the fourteenth largest total ever), and it's bearing down on the $642 million overseas total for Dead Man's Chest and the $654 million overseas cum for At World's End.  Obviously, we'll know in a week or so whether Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides becomes the first franchise to have two films reach $1 billion worldwide and/or becomes the first film to hit $900 million $1 billion while grossing less than $250 million in the US.  Fascinating...

Scott Mendelson

Thanks to dirty, stinking, good-for-nothing foreigners, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides becomes second-fastest movie to gross $800 million worldwide.

This is one problem for which you cannot blame America.  As of yesterday, Disney's Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides sailed past the $800 million mark in just over 3 weeks.  That's the second fastest such sprint, behind James Cameron's Avatar.  Sadly this means that the really lazy and really terrible sequel will likely cross the $1 billion mark, if not surpass Lord of the Rings: Return of the King ($1.119 billion) to become the biggest-grossing film not directed by James Cameron.  Since $614 million of that is from overseas grosses, just who is to blame?  Well, the biggest offenders are Japan ($62 million), Russia ($49 million), and Germany ($46 million), and the United Kingdom ($43 million).  Oh, and don't forget France!  I've long defended France's reputation, since the French people fought off the Nazis long after their government surrendered (and they were pretty right about that whole 'stay out of Vietnam and don't go into Iraq' stuff).  But those 'cheese-eating surrender monkeys' have surrendered $36 million to this soulless monstrosity so J'accuse!  But of course, I cannot ignore the biggest contributor.  With a contribution of $192 million thus far, the biggest worldwide offender for this particular film is... oh wait... damn.  Scratch that first sentence.

Scott Mendelson    

3D isn't dying, it's just leveling out. Why consumers choosing 2D is a good for the 3D format and good for the industry.

The sky is not falling in the realm of 3D films.  There has been much handwringing over the last couple weeks as moviegoers have embraced their right to choose to see the latest summer tentpoles in 2D over the higher-priced 3D venues.  For the record, over the last two weekends, audiences purchased tickets to Kung Fu Panda 2 and Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides in their respective 2D formats at a rate of 55/45.  So, despite those films playing in majority 3D theaters (around 65%), 3D ticket sales made up only 45% of the box office for their respective opening weekends.  This is not a new issue and it is not cause for panic or rebuttal.  Rather, it is a healthy sign that audiences are making an informed choice and that studios are offering a wide swath of moviegoers a genuine option when it comes to their 3D franchise pictures.

Weekend Box Office (05/30/11): Hangover 2 scores $135m, Kung Fu Panda 2 nets $66m over Thurs-Mon. Woody Allen and Terence Malick kill in limited release.

The Three Day weekend and the Four Day weekend totals.  It was close, but no cigar, as The Hangover 2 (review) made a run for the R-rated opening three-day weekend record.  As it stands, the film pulled in $85.6 million over the Friday-Sunday frame, falling just $6 million short of the $91.7 million mark set by The Matrix Reloaded back in 2003.  That film, like The Hangover 2, opened on a Thursday and also bested The Hangover 2 in terms of R-rated 4-day numbers ($118 million Thursday-to-Sunday for Hangover 2 versus $134 million Thursday-to-Sunday for Matrix Reloaded) and likely R-rated 5-day totals (The Matrix Reloaded grossed $144 million in its first five days, while The Hangover 2 ended Monday with 'just' $135 million).  Still, this is no defeat of any plausible kind for the $80 million sequel.  As it is, both films were from Warner Bros so there is little reason for the studio to not rejoice.  As it is, the film is set to take down the five-day opening weekend record for an R-rated film, which was the $125 million Wednesday-to-Sunday opening of 20th Century Fox's The Passion of the Christ back in 2004 (the Mel Gibson epic took in $83 million over the Friday-Sunday portion).  In terms of pure Fri-Sun numbers, it was the second-biggest opening of the year, coming in just $300,000 ahead of Fast Five and about $4 million behind Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides.  It's the 25th biggest opening weekend of all time, and easily the biggest opening weekend for a pure live-action comedy (the next closest is Jim Carrey's Bruce Almighty, which made $67 million on this same weekend back in 2003).  It's also the seventh-biggest Fri-Sun gross for a film that didn't open on a Friday.  It's $117.6 million Thurs-Sun total is the 20th biggest four-day gross in history.  Its $135 million five-day total is the eighteenth-biggest ever.  It's Fri-Mon $103 million Memorial Day weekend take was the fourth-biggest on record.  So it missed the R-rated record book, but it's doing just fine.

Friday Box Office: Hangover 2 grosses $30m, Kung Fu Panda 2 takes in $13.5m, Tree of Life grosses $115,000 on four screens.

For the moment, The Hangover 2 seems to be even stronger than I anticipated, while Kung Fu Panda 2 may not be breaking out as large as I hoped.  Anyway, The Hangover 2 scored another $30 million on Friday night, showing almost no decline from its $31 million opening day.  In fact, when you factor in the $10 million in midnight screenings that made up 1/3 of the opening day, the Friday performance is even more impressive.  Point being, there is a chance that The Hangover 2 will have consistent business all weekend long, as opposed to a heavily-front-loaded opening day.  The two models that may apply are Sex and the City 2 and Terminator: Salvation.  Last year's TV sequel grossed $51 million in five days, earning $26 of that in the first two.  Obviously that film was frontloaded in its first two days, and there is a risk that Hangover 2 may suffer the same fate if it gets harder to do the whole 'guy's night out' thing over the family-friendly holiday (which is a problem that Sex and the City 2 faced last year, with 'girls' night out' being hard to arrange while taking care of the kids and setting up the family events).  Under that model, The Hangover 2 will gross $115 million by Monday night, which is still a solid take.  Under the Terminator: Salvation model, the film will play all weekend long at a consistent pace, giving The Hangover 2 a stunning $141 million over five days.  Obviously, Saturday numbers will tell the tale.

The Wrap gets it wrong (more than once) regarding R-rated box office with its Memorial Day weekend preview.

First and foremost, the headline blares "Hangover 2 set for record-breaking $125m 5day start".    Wrong.  The Passion of the Christ, also an R-rated film, also opened with $125.1 million over its five-day opening.  And the biggest 5-day total for an R-rated film remains The Matrix Reloaded, with $144 million.  Speaking of The Matrix Reloaded, author Daniel Frankel acknowledges that film's record (for an R-rated film) Fri-Sun opening of $91 million, but refers to the film as "critically despised".  That's funny, since the film has a 74% on Rotten Tomatoes (it's a classic example of a well-reviewed smash that is now inexplicably considered a critically-panned flop).  It also refers to the three-day record as being set 'over a standard three-day weekend'.  Also wrong, The Matrix Reloaded opened on a Thursday (with $42 million, including $5 million worth of advance-night Wednesday showings), meaning that the $91 million Fri-Sun number was part of a longer opening weekend.  This arguably makes the $91 million figure all the more impressive, and the Thurs-Sat three-day total was a staggering $108 million.

How 2001 was a film game-changer II: When international box office exploded and America became just another territory.

This is one of a handful of essays that will be dealing with the various trends that were kicked off during the 2001 calendar year, and how they still resonate today.

Over the weekend, something curious happened.  The box office pundits were hand-wringing over the alleged box office failure of Disney's Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides.  Its crime (aside from being terrible) was failing to open above $100 million over its three-day Fri-Sun opening.  As I discussed two weeks ago, the opening weekends of 'major' movies have skyrocketed over the last decade, in both quantity (how many movies opening $60 million or more) and quality (the sheer amount of those massive weekends).  So we have reached a point, just nine years since the first $100 million opening ever, where a $90 million haul is considering 'disappointing'.  But what most box office pundits weren't paying attention to was the international number.  In just five days, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides grossed $346 million worldwide, far surpassing its alleged $250 million budget and setting the film on the course for massive profitably.  It is just another example of how, when it comes to tent pole franchise pictures, the domestic market is merely that: just another market.  It was a slow crawl that started in 2001 that climaxed this year, a summer movie season where the domestic market is all-but irrelevant for the big summer blockbusters.      

Weekend Box Office (05/22/11): Pirates 4 grosses $90m, Bridesmaids holds strong, Woody Allen's Midnight in Paris astonishes in limited bow

Just ten years ago next weekend, we saw pundits studio executives hand-wringing over the 'mere' $75 million four-day gross of Michael Bay's Pearl Harbor.  For some reason (oh, it's a three-hour period love story... it's EXACTLY like Titanic!!), studio executives were expecting a $100 million four-day total.  Nevermind that such a number had never been achieved before.  As I've written elsewhere, 2001 was the year that opening weekends went crazy, where $50 million became the new $35 million and $60 million became the new $40 million.  In the last nine years (starting in May 2002 of course), we've had 25 films with $100 million+ four-day totals and 18 films with $100 million+ three-day totals.  I bring this up because once again we are faced with a Disney blockbuster that is fighting off the assumption of failure because its opening weekend didn't approach record levels.  For the record, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides opened with $90 million this weekend.  That may not be as huge as the last two sequels, but it's a fine haul for a franchise that pretty much everyone agrees is washed up.  Let this be a lesson to Disney's Chuck Viane (who actually predicted a $100 million+ weekend): it's your job to LOWER expectations, not inflate them!

Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides opening day collects $35 million, looks on course to $86 million weekend.

It's a $35 million opening Friday for Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides.  That's expectedly below the opening Fridays for Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest ($55 million - a record at the time) and Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End ($42 million, despite $13 million in Thursday night sneaks).  The film pulled in about 13% of its Friday total in midnight screenings ($4.7 million), which is slightly less than the 16% midnight haul of Dead Man's Chest ($9 million of its $55 million Friday), even though Dead Man's Chest obviously pulled in more midnight cash overall.  Considering inflation and 3D/IMAX ticket price bumps, it stands to reason that attendance was way down compared to the prior sequels.  As it is, the second film (the only prior entry up to now with a pure Fri-Sun opening weekend) had a 2.4x weekend multiplier, which led to a then-record $135 million opening weekend.  If the sequel follows suit, we get the predicted $86 million opening haul.  The third film is a more difficult comparison.  If you purely count Fri-Sun, it had a 2.7 weekend multiplier ($114 million for Fri-Sun), which would give the fourth film $96 million for the weekend.  But At World's End made $13 million on those Thursday night sneaks, meaning that it basically made $56 million on its first 1.25 days.  Using that, it means that the film pulled in over 1/2 its opening weekend in just the first 1.25 days (and then it did another $25 million on Memorial Day Monday).  So the safest bet is to split the pure Fri-Sun difference, hope for strong kiddie-driven matinée attendance (poor kids...), and guess a 2.55 weekend multiplier, which will give the film $89 million for the weekend, good enough for 2011's top opening haul thus far.  In better news for humanity, Bridesmaids only dropped about 18% from last weekend (about $6 million), setting it on course for a $20 million second weekend.

Scott Mendelson    

Midnight Box Office (05/19/11): Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides pulls in $4.7million in 12:01am showings. Weekend total $72-104 million.

It's time to do that pesky midnight math yet again.  Before the first matinees even start on the west coast, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides has pulled in $4.7 million in midnight screenings.  So, using the math that we've been playing around with for the last few weeks, let's see where we stand.  As I've written previously, midnight grosses generally make up around 4.5%-6.5% of the total weekend take.  So the best case scenario is a weekend take of $105 million.  But the question becomes just how anticipated and/or front loaded is this fourth installment of the series?  It stands to reason that the film is more front loaded than Fast Five (which pulled in about 4.5% of its take from midnights) being that its a sequel, but certainly less front loaded than The Dark Knight  (which pulled in 11% of its $158 million debut at 12:01am Thursday).  However, this number is less than the $7.5 million that Iron Man 2 pulled down in its midnight debut, totaling about 5.8% of its $128 million opening.  So let's say that Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides is about as front loaded as Thor (it's a sequel, but it's a less geek-skewing property than the Marvel Comics adventure), which puts the number at about 5%.  So, if the fourth film has already scored 5.5% of its weekend figure (word of mouth will likely be far worse than Thor or Fast Five), then the pirate adventure will pull down $85 million for the weekend.  So, the variable is between $72 and $104 million, with $85 million looking like the probable figure.  Okay, now I'm off to actually see the film in glorious 2D and review it.  Never thought I'd be able to accurately predict weekend box office before the opening day actually began...

Scott Mendelson

Um... aren't studios supposed to LOWER expectations? Disney exec expects $100 million+ opening for Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides.

Paramount had the right idea two weeks ago.  Amid rampant speculation regarding the opening weekend potential for Thor, Paramount (pardon the pun) hammered home the studio line that anything over $60 million would be a massive success.  While other pundits and rival studio executives crowed about the potential for $75-85 million, Paramount continually stuck to the line that Thor was not Iron Man and that anything over the $55 million plateau set by Fantastic Four and The Incredible Hulk would be considered a solid play.  Thus, when the film opened with $65 million, Paramount was able to spin the number as a win with little backpedaling.  But Disney theatrical distribution chief Chuck Viane doesn't get that simple idea.  In an article for The Wrap, he says, ""If it starts with a '1' in front of it, I'll be happy with the number.  If it doesn't, I won't be."  So unless Chuck Viane is predicting that Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides will open to between $10 and $19 million over the weekend, he seems to be selling the notion that the studio is expecting a $100 million+ opening weekend.  Um.... that's not quite how it works, Chuck.