The Amazing Spider-Man earns $23.4 million on its second day, bringing two-day total to $59 million.

Well, this is the first (small) sign of trouble.  The Amazing Spider-Man 35% on its second day, earning $23.4 million over July 4th.  It's not a dreadful plunge, and when you remove the $7.5 million worth of midnight screenings on Tuesday, it's closer to a 15% drop.  The film has earned $59.2 million in two days, or exactly what Spider-Man 3 earned on its opening day back in May 2007.  Among the various July 4th openers in recent years, its two-day total puts it ahead of everything save Spider-Man 2 ($64 million), Transformers: Dark of the Moon ($64 million), Transformers ($65 million... also opening on a Tuesday), and Twilight Saga: Eclipse ($92 million, although coming off an insanely front-loaded $30 million at midnight and $68 million over its first 24 hours).  The comparison points should be Spider-Man 2, Transformers 3, and Transformers.  Spider-Man 2 debuted with $40 million on its opening day (Wednesday) but then plunged 41% to $23 million as well.  The difference is that Spidey's second day didn't actually fall on July 4th.  When Transformers debuted on a Tuesday, its Wednesday total actually went up 4% from $27 million to $29 million.  However, when factoring in those pesky Monday-night sneaks (first 1.25 days = $36 million), then Transformers technically dropped 19%.  Without even looking at the whole 3D/IMAX ticket-price bump issue, the adjusted-for-inflation two-day totals for Spider-Man 2 ($81 million) and Transformers ($75 million) are well-above The Amazing Spider-Man's figures. On the plus side, it's been playing identical to Transformers: Dark of the Moon, minus only the $5.5 million worth of 9pm showings that film had prior to the midnight screenings. Two days in, it still looks like The Amazing Spider-Man will end its six day weekend with between $140 million and $165 million.

Scott Mendelson

Titanic 3D opens with $4.3 million, sails towards likely $20-$25m 5-day total.

The much-hyped 3D-release of James Cameron's Titanic debuted yesterday with a solid $4.3 million.  What's left to do now is merely play with the numbers to estimate where the five-day opening weekend for this 3D release will end come Sunday.  The wild-card for the weekend is that tomorrow is Good Friday, which means that many kids will be out of school for at least part of the day.  On the other hand, Easter Sunday means that families will be spending the day together, and even if a trip to the movies is in order, I can't imagine the entire family agreeing to a 3.5-hour emotionally-draining tragedy that most people own on DVD being the likely pick, especially as families with small children are less likely to shell out for the 3D upgrade.  Anyway, let's presume that Easter Sunday cancels out Good Friday and call it even.

Box Office (06/29/11): With 60% sold in 3D, Transformers: Dark of the Moon nets $42.7m first day (including Tues-sneaks). It's looks like a $180m 6-day weekend.

Okay, so my arbitrary predictions stemming from yesterday's $13.5 million worth of advance-night and midnight screenings was off by about $10 million.  The third Transformers picture grossed $37.2 million on its first full day, which accounts for $8 million worth of midnight shows but not $5.5 million worth of 9pm advance screenings the evening before.  So the official 'first day' total for Transformers: Dark of the Moon is $42.7 million.  By itself, the $37.2 million number is the sixth-biggest Wednesday of all-time, and the biggest single day of 2011 so far.  That is about $24 million behind the $62 million opening day (with $16 million worth of midnight grosses) for Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen.  And it is about $6 million ahead of the first day ($27.8 million opening Tuesday plus $8.8 million worth of advance-night sneaks) of the first Transformers back over this same long holiday in 2007.  The first Transformers had a six day opening weekend of sorts, opening on Monday at 8pm and plowing through the whole Fourth of July week with about $155 million in the can by the time Sunday night rolled around.  Dark of the Moon has a similar situation, opening on a Wednesday, but having that holiday Monday that Transformers apparently did not have (I say apparently because the Monday gross plummeted 55% from Sunday, which is unusual for a holiday Monday).  The film scored an A from Cinemascore, with 55% of the audience being under 25. It also played 62% male.  With audience satisfaction higher this time around (Revenge of the Fallen had a B+) and those IMAX (more in number than for Revenge of the Fallen) and 3D screens (which made up a whopping 60% of the tickets yesterday) factored in, we should see a similar long-weekend multiplier to the first Transformers (4.3x its opening 1.25 days).  So offhand, we're looking like a six-day weekend total of about $180 million.  Although Paramount would love to get it over the $183.6 million six-day mark, so as to become the third-biggest six-day total ever (behind Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen with $214 million and The Dark Knight with $224 million).

Scott Mendelson

Wednesday Box Office: Little Fockers opens soft(ish), True Grit and Tron: Legacy battle for number two.

Little Fockers was number one at the box office over the first day of the five-day Christmas holiday. But it was a much tighter race than expected, as True Grit held its own and Tron: Legacy remained steady. Little Fockers, the much-unanticipated finale to Fockers trilogy ('This Christmas... the journey ends.'), debuted with $7.2 million. By any normal standards, this would be a solid Wednesday debut for a comedy. But Meet the Fockers (a film that wasn't insanely anticipated either six long years ago) opened its Christmas long-weekend with $12.2 million. That film, which had much better reviews, ended up with $70 million by the end of the long weekend, or a 5.7x weekend multiplier. Should Little Fockers follow suit, it will end the long-weekend with $41 million, or about $5 million less that Meet the Fockers made in the Fri-Sun portion of its opening weekend.

Twilight Saga: Eclipse grosses $68.5 million in its first full day.

The numbers are in, and it's $68.5 million for The Twilight Saga: Eclipse, with $30 million of that coming just from midnight showings. That's the second-best day of all time, behind the $72.7 million scored on the opening day of The Twilight Saga: New Moon last November ($26 million in midnight showings). It's just ahead of the $67.1 million single-day take of The Dark Knight just under two years ago ($18 million in midnight screenings). It's the biggest Wednesday opening, ahead of the $62 million opening-day numbers of Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen ($16 million in midnight screenings). It is telling that the film ended up just a bit ahead of those last two opening day marks, despite nearly doubling their midnight tallies (and having the added boost of higher-priced IMAX tickets this time around). It would appear for the moment that this third chapter will be even more frontloaded than the prior entries, but the long holiday puts even that into question. Point being, while the films have by-far the worst opening weekend multipliers of any ongoing franchise (the first two films merely doubled their opening-day take over the first three-days), the long weekend could allow the film to regain momentum as the hardcore fans see the film for a second time after their respective Fourth of July activities.