Thursday box office: Katy Perry: Part of Me 3D debuts with $3m while The Amazing Spider-Man now sits with $75m.

So The Amazing Spider-Man heads into the Fri-Sun weekend with $75 million after three days.  There is little to speculate at this point.  All relevant mathematical precedents (Transformers, Transformers 3, Spider-Man 2, War of the Worlds, etc.) point to The Amazing Spider-Man ending its six-day weekend with around $140 million.  I'll discuss whether that's good or bad come Sunday (it's a little complicated), but for now the film is no outright flop and probably will encourage other studios to consider rebooting their cherished properties sooner rather than later.  Alas... Anyway, the first day for Paramount's 3D musical documentary, Katy Perry: Part of Me, earned $3.1 million today.  That's obviously closer to the $4.9 million that Jonas Brothers: The 3D Concert Experience earned on its opening day (a Friday, natch) as opposed to the $12 million that Justin Bieber: Never Say Never earned over its debut Friday.  Even if the Katy Perry espionage thriller ends up closer to the $11 million that Glee 3D grossed versus the $72 million finishes of Michael Jackson: This Is It and Justin Bieber: Never Say Never, the film cost just $12 million to make and may-well become a popular slumber-party rental for the next year or so.  I make no promises about updating in regards to Friday numbers, but I'll have the full analysis for Peter, Katy, and Ollie (Stone) come Sunday.

Scott Mendelson

Kung Fu Panda 2 plays the Shrek 2 game, scores $5.8 million opening day. Come what may, we should see a record weekend multiplier.

Paramount and Dreamworks took a big risk opening Kung Fu Panda 2 (review) on a Thursday.  The family-friendly action comedy was guaranteed to have a somewhat soft opening day due to the majority of kids being in school until this evening.  And so it is the case that the terrific sequel took in a moderate $5.8 million on its first day.  Of course, Dreamworks has some history with this kind of thing.  If you recall, Dreamworks opened Shrek 2 on a Wednesday back in May 2004.  It had two relatively soft days $11.7 million and $9.1 million heading into the Fri-Sun weekend (I remember thinking the film was doomed as it was opening about on the level of Pokemon: The First Movie).  It absolutely exploded over the normal weekend, earning an eye-popping $28 million on Friday, $44 million on Saturday (the biggest single day in history at the time), and $34 million on Sunday (the biggest Sunday gross ever at the time).  So it was a $129 million five-day weekend, with $108 million of that just over Friday through Sunday.  That's also an 11x five-day weekend multiplier. In  research, that's called 'that outlier that you throw out'... until today.  Anyway, Dreamworks is obviously hoping for an even larger multiplier, as yesterday is sure to be the film's lowest box office day by a healthy margin.  Just for fun, let's say the film does an average of $20 million per day over the next four days (a reasonable assumption, the first film opened to $60 million over three days).  That gives the film a $86 million five-day opening and a 14x weekend multiplier.  This one is an even bigger question mark than The Hangover II, but it can be presumed that Dreamworks bet that most of the audience (IE - families) were just waiting for the weekend to check out the animated sequel.  Which, considering the lesson of Shrek 2 (which would have easily crushed the 3-day opening weekend record had it opened on a Friday), makes one wonder why they went for the Thursday opening at all?

Scott Mendelson        

The Hangover II scores $31.7 million on opening day. It looks like a $102-127 million five-day weekend.

The Hangover part II (review) grossed $31.7 million yesterday, scoring the third-biggest Thursday numbers in history.  The only bigger Thursday grosses were The Matrix Reloaded ($42 million, including $5 million in Wednesday evening sneaks) and Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith ($50 million).  It's also the third-biggest R-rated single day, behind that $42 million opening day for The Matrix Reloaded and the $34 million Saturday for The Matrix Reloaded.  The picture did 32% of its total first day business at midnight.  The closest comparison of late indeed Paranormal Activity 2, which did 31% of its first day total ($20.1 million) in midnight screenings.  As far as the rest of the five-day weekend, it will arguably fall somewhere between the 3.2x multiplier of Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen (which would give The Hangover 2 $102 million over five-days) and the 6x weekend multiplier of Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (which would give the sequel an unlikely $186 million five-day total).  Relative disaster would be a multiplier equal to Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (2.72x = $86 million). The more likely result will be something similar to The Matrix Revolutions's 3.44x weekend multiplier (which would give The Hangover II $109 million) and the 4.02x multiplier for Superman Returns (which would equal $127 million over the holiday weekend).  This is all just fun with math for the moment, and we'll have a pretty good idea of the end result by this evening or tomorrow.

Scott Mendelson  

Thursday box office (07/01/10) - The Last Airbender: $16.35 million. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse: $24 million, Toy Story 3: $7.4 million

The Last Airbender parlayed its devout fanbase, the marquee value of M. Night Shyamalan, and a pretty solid marketing campaign into a $16.35 million-grossing opening day, which includes $3 million in midnight showings. That's the fifth-biggest opening Thursday of all time, and the fifteenth-biggest Thursday on record. Yes, the 3-D ticket prices helped a bit, but if the product doesn't entice audiences, it won't matter how much the tickets cost. Of course, it's no secret that the film is abysmal, so it's a little disheartening to see M. Night Shyamalan rewarded with such a massive opening day (only Signs and The Village opened better, with $20 million on their respective opening days). Where it goes from here is anybody's guess.