Bigger isn't always better. Why Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters may represent the future of big-scale studio movies.

I wrote a few weeks ago about how something released this year or perhaps last year might be a signal for the future of the would-be blockbuster, a film whose respective success would spawn a decade or so of like-minded would-be tentpoles. What if I were to tell you that a possible template for future would-be blockbusters had already arrived this very year?  What if I were to tell you that the future of big-scale filmmaking may be none-other than Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters?  Laugh if you wish, but let's take a look at what the film represents.

Weekend Box Office (02/03/13): Warm Bodies tops while Bullet to the Head tanks.

Ah, Super Bowl weekend!  Warm Bodies (review) can go from a $9 million Saturday to a $2.9 million Sunday and it's okay!  According to the studio, it earned $8.1 million on Friday, $9 million on Saturday, yet is expected to make just $2.9 million today.  Yes, I know today is the Super Bowl, but I'm always shocked by these mega drops each and every year.  The film, which has an estimated $20 million debut, played 60% female (because girls like horror films too!) and 65% under 25, which means it is doing best outside of the stereotypical older male football fan who is already getting ready for the big game so it may end up with a slightly higher weekend total in the end.  It earned a B+ from Cinemascore, with an A- from those under 25 and an A from those under 18.  Regardless, this is a solid debut for a film that easily could have played to the geek crowd exclusively. This is the kind of film that could have easily opened with $8 million over the weekend, as opposed to $8 million on its first day.

Weekend Box Office (01-27-13): Hansel and Gretel slightly overperforms while Parker and Movie 43 underwhelm.

This weekend's lesson is "all the marketing prowess in the world doesn't matter if you don't have the movie". Paramount has been batting 1.000 in terms of launching major fantasy-skewed franchise pictures.  From at least summer 2007 with Transformers, they have been the most consistent performers in terms of grabbing those blockbuster debuts, launching not-quite sure things like Iron Man, Star Trek, G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra, and Thor to blockbuster numbers while also turning a glorified home movie (Paranormal Activity) into a massive horror franchise in their spare time.  They were a little off their game in 2012, with several high profile delays into 2013 (Star Trek Into Darkness, GI Joe: Retaliation) and with the few films Paramount did release in 2012 somewhat under-performing (Jack Reacher, Katy Perry: Part of Me, The Dictator, Rise of the Guardians).  But I would argue the fact that Paramount got what looked to be an utter shit-storm like Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters to nearly $20 million, or $19 million in this case, is a sign of their sheer marketing will.  They hit all the sweet spots (in theater infomercials, an unexpected R-rating, IMAX engagements, an exclusive sneak peak at a future Paramount movie, saturated coverage in various demographics, etc.) but the movie is the movie.

Why they hate us: Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters gets a lousy trailer that feels no better than a SyFy Channel premiere.

Well this looks amusingly terrible.  This is frankly why so many people claim that movies stink nowadays.  It's the kind of 'take an old tale and turn it into an action picture' shtick that was tired the minute Van Helsing debut nearly nine summers ago.  Starring a flavor of the month actor (Jeremy Renner) and a random 'she's a movie star because we tell you she is' would-be starlet (Gemma Arterton), this can't even muster a decent trailer.  It looks dull, it looks cheap, and it looks like the kind of thing that would perhaps justify itself as a guilty pleasure as a Saturday night SyFy movie.  But this would-be franchise-starter is the kind of film that would-be audiences and critics are talking about when they decry the death of Hollywood.  Just as obnoxious, the film pertains to be about a brother-and-sister witch killers yet establishes what appears to be a stock 'rescue the damsel in distress' third act which sidelines Arterton for large chunks of the picture (notice how little she appears in the last third of the trailer).  I'm happy to see Famke Janssen in a high-profile project, but she seems to be the only source of entertainment, even with a somewhat surprising R-rating.  Although I will gladly eat crow if the film finds some way to incorporate IKEA into the narrative, perhaps making Mr. Ikea the would-be Q who builds all of their snap-together weapons ("There's an extra screw that doesn't go anywhere!  We're doomed sister!").  Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters debuts on January 11th. 2013.  As always, we'll see...

Scott Mendelson