I just don't know!! Random mumbling about the opening weekend of X-Men Origins: Wolverine

Good thing I don't do as much 'Box Office Bingo' as I used to, cause I would be at a loss this weekend. Too many variables, too much left to chance...

The first X-Men opened to $54 million nine years ago. I'd think Fox would want an at least comparable number. While it's not being treated as a direct sequel, it was at least more expensive than the first two X-Men pictures.

There are too many variables this weekend to make any estimate that I'd put money on. Hell, if another American or two suddenly dies from swine flu in the next 24 hours, that changes things too. Not saying it makes sense, but I'd gather many moviegoers remember everyone's favorite scene from Outbreak. So, we have to factor in the bootleg's effect, with corresponding negative word of mouth, we have to factor in possible panic via alleged flu outbreak, plus the fact that Star Trek is the movie with momentum right now. Plus the fact that the project just doesn't have the excitement of Iron Man, Spider-Man, or any of the X-Men pictures (it feels like Van Helsing... it's big because it's the first film of summer and that's all). I may be wrong, but this just doesn't feel like a $70 million+ weekend. Come what may, nothing will stop Fox from blaming the bootleg and the flu news no matter what happens (if it opens huge, it could have been even bigger!).

$55 million is the minimum opening that Fox can theoretically be comfortable with, but even that will cause concern. Since the film isn't very good and Star Trek is coming next week, Fox is now in the same situation as WB was with Watchmen. Since the film probably won't have legs, even a normally fine $55 million+ opening weekend will be dangerous as the film will likely collapse rather quickly. Normally a $55 million opening would lead to a $140-160 million final take (think the Hulk and Fantastic Four pictures), but it could very well collapse like Watchmen and struggle to get to $110 million. Of course, if it opens to $70-80 million, then ignore all of that.

But the situation is still very reminiscent of Batman & Robin. That was a movie that, removing all negative variables should have opened to about $60 million. The big question was whether the terrible reviews, bad word of mouth, and declarations of war amongst fan boys (including myself at age 17... boy am I embarrassed by some of the childish stuff I wrote that summer) would have an effect on the box office. They apparently did, so a great, but under-expectations debut of $43 million resulted (followed by a then-stunning 64% drop in weekend two). So yeah, in this case - if the bad stuff actually hurts Wolverine, then $50 million... if it doesn't then $75 million. I wouldn't bet on either one.

Come what may, Fox now has two perfect excuses if this thing genuinely under performs. And rest assured, every studio in town is waiting on baited breath. If this opens under expectations this weekend, everybody in town panics. Be it fears of piracy or fears of the continuing 'we're all gonna die of swine flu' stories, this could have a real impact on how the rest of the summer unfolds. For the first time in a long time, the opening day of a major movie is big, BIG news for the industry as a whole. I can't wait to see how it plays out.

Well, there will be more to discuss when the numbers actually come in. Expect a full analysis on Monday or Tuesday (I'll be out of town until Monday).

Scott Mendelson

Box Office Bingo - 11/21/08

Twilight - $75 million. The hype for this one has been building for the last few months, with at least two Entertainment Weekly cover stories to boot. The books are a huge deal with the target demo (middle school and high school girls and, to a lesser extent, adult women) and this adaptation promises to be about as slavishly faithful as Harry Potter And The Sorcerer's Stone. Of course, it's not a coincidence that the upstart Summit Entertainment moved this one from December 12th to November 21st, following the rescheduling of a certain boy wizard. Summit desperately wants this to be as much 'the next Harry Potter' in the film world as the books are in the literary scene. Fun trivia - when I saw Harry Potter And The Goblet Of Fire (exactly three years ago this weekend), a huge chunk of the female audience loudly sighed/swooned when Cedric Diggory first appeared onscreen. How ironic that 'the boy who lived' is being directly challenged by a franchise starring Robert Pattinson, 'the boy who died'.

A few things, however, will prevent this from reaching Harry Potter opening weekend heights (not that anyone is going to be disappointed with anything over $40 million). First of all, Summit is only opening on only 3200 screens. Second of all, unless you're a big fan of the books or the subject matter, the film doesn't look very exciting, more like a slightly better cast and produced version of The Covenant. Third of all, let's face it, one of the big reasons that the film industry is such a male-dominated enterprise is that girls are usually more than happy to see 'boy movies' like Iron Man, but boys usually won't go anywhere near 'girl movies' like Sex & The City. Basically, this is a textbook example of 'female escapism'. So, aside from any existing male fans of the books, the only male traffic is going to be from boyfriends (who can't help but come up short in comparison to the seemingly perfect Edward), platonic friends who really want to get laid (it ain't gonna happen... move on), and from pervy older men who want to scope out the stream of awkward, single, romantically inclined high school and middle school girls. If I score this weekend, my wife gets one 'hot nerd' at the next Comic Con (think Sheldon Cooper from The Big Bang Theory).

That $75 million could well be an underestimate (even Summit Entertainment is claiming a shot at $70 million), but I'm not willing to presume anything after the shocking under performance of High School Musical 3 (fine, it wasn't going to open to $80 million - but to barely make $80 million total??). For the record, expect opening day front-loading on the scale of Sex & The City and XXX. Still, this is going to be a huge opening and if the fans are happy, expect a frighteningly small drop-off over the Thanksgiving weekend (what else are they going to see - Australia or Milk?).

Bolt - $40 million.
This is the third 'not Pixar but not just Disney' release in the last two years, and also their third 3D release. Chicken Little was atrocious while Meet The Robinsons was the best movie of 2007 (you heard me - go rent it and tell me I'm wrong). I'm guessing this one will be somewhere in the middle. The marketing has been mammoth per usual, and the cast is unfortunately more celebrity heavy than the recent Disney slate (good for marketing, but often bad for the movie). The reviews are surprisingly solid (84% so far), so expect this one to equal if not surpass the three-day take over the long Thanksgiving holiday. But seriously, go rent Meet The Robinsons... it's good for the soul.

Quantum Of Solace - $34 million.
The word of mouth is decidedly mixed and the marketplace will be crowded, so expect an unusually large drop for this very fast-earning 007 picture. Still, even if the drop is 50% or more, it should level off over the next month as it becomes the safe second choice of casual moviegoers for the rest of the year.

I'll do my best to update tomorrow.

Scott Mendelson

The Return of Box Office Bingo! (predictions for Oct 24-26)

It's been awhile since I did the whole weekend box office thing, but now that the holiday season has started more or less, it's time to return the world of meaningless predictions, boastful proclamations of accuracy, and mea culpas. Besides, history will likely be made this weekend, the question is just how much history.

High School Musical 3: Senior Year: $85 million. The general predictions are $40 million. I think they're way off (and Box Office Prophets agrees with me). Make no mistake, the above is a cautious estimate based on the math. The first two movies have been rented or viewed on The Disney Channel by something around 50 million people since 2005. The second film scored a whopping 17.2 million viewers on its debut evening back in August, 2007, by far the biggest audience in basic cable history (at $7 a ticket, that would have equaled $120 million). The franchise has sold hundreds of millions (billions?) of dollars worth of merchandise and tie-in product over the last few years. For better or worse, this is Grease of the present youth generation. If cult musicals like Mamma Mia and Hairspray can do $30 million, then the sky is the limit for this one.

Hannah Montana: Best Of Both Worlds scored a $45,561 per screen average early this year on 683 screens. Let's assume (and this is a safe assumption) that anyone that showed up for the concert film will likely show up for HSM3 (to say nothing of people like myself, who genuinely liked the first film and likes quality musicals in general). So, let's have fun and do the math for this weekend's 3623 screen release.

$45,561 per screen (obviously not going to happen, but for comparison): $165.1 million
$22,760 per screen (50% off; below the top 25 all-time per screen averages): $82 million
$15,187 per screen (only 33%): $55 million

So basically, at worst it does $55 million and butchers the previous October opening weekend record (Scary Movie 3 - $48 million in 2003). But if it even approaches the per-screen average top-20, we could get something dangerously close to a $100 million weekend.

Additionally, this will be a battle between epic frontloading and the weekend matinee factor. As most people reading this site know, kids films often see a huge uptick (as much as 50% increase) on Saturday and Sunday as the matinee business surpasses the Friday evening numbers. On the other hand, this is the third film in a major franchise, so frontloading could reach Dark Knight/Sex & The City levels. Still, the former should cancel out the latter so we could see something approaching a 3x multiplier (god, I've missed this stuff).

Although this is the definition of a critic-proof hit, the few reviews that have trickled out have so far been positive, giving grownups the possible excuse needed to check it out without kids. A huge percentage of kids who saw the first two will be in the theaters this weekend. A decent amount of kids who have not seen the previous entries will be there, perhaps going with friends, or just wanting to see a (somewhat) big budget, super colorful musical. Older teens and adult women have read all about the teen stars, especially Efron and Tisdale, in their various gossip rags so awareness is covered there. And if you're a parent who just wants to take the kid to the movies and Saw V is sold out, well, it's gotta be better than Beverly Hills Chihuahua, right? Unless you're a male teen without a girlfriend (see your movie choice below) or too old for G-rated confections, you're pretty much a targeted quadrant this weekend.

So, with everything factored in, it's just a matter of how big this will be. I've been wrong before (The Dark Knight, Mars Attacks!), and I've been right when everyone else was wrong (The Mummy, Pearl Harbor). We'll see which column this goes in on Saturday morning. Let's call it at $85 million. I'd 'bet on it'.

Saw V: $25 million. Why, oh WHY, was this not moved to Halloween night? Granted, we're dealing with two big franchises with next to no overlap, but surely Lionsgate would have liked the bragging rights of a number 1 opening weekend? Every Saw film since the original has opened to number 01 (part one came in third place with $18 million, behind Ray and the second weekend of The Grudge).

Putting that aside, the series isn't exactly basking in audience goodwill at the moment. The fourth film was pretty terrible, probably worse than the first film (I'm weird in that I prefer 2 and 3 to the original). The lead character is now definitively dead, so who knows how Tobin Bell is going to return this time? The poster boasts 'you won't believe how it ends', but I'm not sure implausibility is something you want to be boasting about.

Still, this is a dependable franchise that has rooted itself in a deep, tangled story and somewhat complicated mythology. Unlike the many hard-R gore fests that followed in its wake, the Saw franchise has always boasted adult actors playing adult characters. While the acting quality may vary (Danny Glover has rarely been worse than he was in Saw, while Tobin Bell shines in Saw II), enough fans will genuinely want to know what happens next, aside from the usual gore hounds who like the blood and guts. Even if the series will never again hit $30 million on opening weekend, the series is still cheap enough that it will be profitable for years to come.

Pride And Glory: $10 million. As saddened as I was at New Line Cinema's death last winter, it's good to know that Warner Bros. has treated most of New Line's lineup with respect. Sex And The City and Journey To The Center Of The Earth 3D were solid smash hits, and Appaloosa is a slow, steady earner. Despite being in release limbo for awhile, this allegedly so-so cop drama is getting a 2585 screen release. It's not gonna break the bank, but good for Warner for not gutting the New Line product that was already in place.

We'll see if my pie in the sky HSM3 prediction pans out. For the record, if the HSM3 numbers are more earthbound, that doesn't mean the film is a 'disappointment', only that I was off the mark. Updates on Saturday if there is anything out of the ordinary.

Scott Mendelson

Weekend Box Office Bingo (08/22/08)

Four new releases. The best reviewed release so far is The House Bunny, with a whopping 41% on Rotten Tomatoes. For the first time since May, the weekend box office is going to be lacking any mega-grossers. Just normal sized films trying to cash in on the last pre-school days. The box office analysis is going to be a lot less interesting for the next month or so, and it's going to be a lot harder to predict, since smaller films are harder to peg in a crowded marketplace. That's just the way it is.

Death Race - $15 million. If it's the end of August, it must be time for Jason Statham to beat the crap out of various rogues, quip wise, and make us all nostalgic for the days of trashy 80s action. The unneeded Paul WS Anderson remake is the annual end of August Jason Statham action vehicle that has been a tradition for literally the last four years. The Transporter 2 was a sequel to a cult action film and had a major studio (20th Century Fox) behind the wheel, so it's $20 million+ four-day opening over Labor Day was the exception to the rule. The last two years have had Lionsgate opening Crank (which was clever fun) and War (which was good for absolutely nothing, huzzah) to about $10 million apiece. So, he obviously has a consistent fan base as long as the budgets are kept in check.

Death Race has a major studio (Universal) and a modest budget (allegedly $18 million), so even if it performs more like The Bank Job (one of the year's best movies, by the way) than The Transporter 2, it'll do just fine. As it is, the $10 million-worth of die-hards will show up for sure. Also being targeted are the car junkies, and just people who want one last action blast, a trashy R-rated one at that. On an unrelated note, can I just add how great Joan Allen looks on her 52nd birthday? Just the fact that she's lending her gravitas to this sleazy B-picture almost makes me want to see it.

The House Bunny: $15 million. IE - Legally Blonde 3. Anna Faris has been due for a breakout for awhile now. Although if you count her Scary Movie franchise, she already has 3 $40 million+ openings to her credit. She is genuinely funny and the premise for this broad comedy is an easily marketable one. The positive reviews are very positive so this could surprise and end up number 01 for the weekend.

The Rocker - $2 million. It opened yesterday, did $500,000, it may need till Friday to cross the $1 million mark. Game over.

The Longshots - $12 million. Ice Cube has a family following, so this could break out just a little. It's intended to cash in on the beginning of football season, so that will help. On a slightly related note, it stars Kekee Palmer, who also starred in 2006's best film, Akeelah And The Bee. So any success for her will be most welcome indeed.

See, that wasn't so painful? To be fair, much of the above was only slightly educated guessing (that's how it is on these kind of weekends). Oh, and since my daughter turns one this weekend, I might just wait till the weekend finals to discuss the full weekend box office. Because, yes, some things are more important.

Scott Mendelson

Weekend Box Office Bingo

Yet another reason not to open your movie on a Wednesday - If you don't open with 'Friday-like' numbers, you get the blogs and media complaining that you are already a loser going into Friday.

Tropic Thunder: $28 million three-day, $39 million five-day. So far, it has has pulled in about $11 million in its first two days. Not a sterling number, and certainly not great considering the (at least) $90 million production budget, but the opening weekend really begins today. Remember, this is an R-rated action comedy starring actual adults. Yes, Ben Stiller and Jack Black have solid youth appeal (Downey Jr. appeals more to their parents, Iron Man aside), but this is an adult movie and thus we can presume that the main audience is simply waiting till the weekend to see it. I'm sure plenty of people want to see it, but no one has to see it RIGHT NOW, which is why they should have just waited till Friday. In all likelihood, this is going to play closer to Indiana Jones And The Kingdom Of The Crystal Skill than The Pineapple Express (pattern-wise, not numbers wise). In other words, the film will slowly build towards a peak on Saturday night, just like movies used to do back in the day.

Using that template, expect a solid 6x opening day multiplier (Pineapple Express had 3.4x) for a final five day total of $39 million. If it performs like King Kong, expect a 6.8x multiplier and a $44 million Sunday total. I don't think Shrek 2 is a proper comparison here, but let's amuse ourselves. Shrek 2 made a meager $21 million by Friday, than made another $108 million for a five-day total of $129 million (obviously no one cared about seeing this one first or inconveniently). That's a 11x multiplier and would give Tropic Thunder $71 million by Sunday. Ain't gonna happen, but there you have it. Shrek 2's incredibly anomaly of a Wednesday opening has forever screwed predictions for Wednesday openings.

Star Wars: The Clone Wars - IE - Star Wars does Never Say Never Again. That was a Warner Bros. James Bond film that had no theme music, no Q, and no real continuity that matched up with the other Bond films (long story, but it was basically a remake of Thunderball with only Sean Connery returning to the role giving the movie a reason to exist). This is Warner Bros.' Star Wars entry, which is not live-action, has no Fox Fanfare, no John Williams music (I assume the allegedly terrible score uses bits and pieces), and only a few of the original trilogy actors returning to voice their characters. In truth, this is basically the extended pilot for the upcoming Clone Wars cartoon show coming soon to Cartoon Network and TNT (hence, I presume, the Warner Bros. release). The reviews have been dreadful (although a friend had a point, in that this may be the critics beating up on Lucas after not being able to bring themselves to pan Indy 4), and there is no real excitement even from the hardcores. The AICN critical trashing and the resulting controversy didn't help. So, expect $15 million and a healthy life on DVD (ironically, Clone Wars will likely be the first Star Wars film on BluRay).

UPDATED: I completely forgot about Mirrors when I did this write-up. I was expecting about $9 million and it did $11 million. That's even more impressive as it didn't have a huge screen count and when I saw it Sunday afternoon at the AMC Woodland Hills (the wife loves her horror films), it was in one of their smaller theaters.

The Dark Knight will start to lose screens and probably drop 45%. Still, a $14.5 million weekend would bring the total to a stunning $468 million (passing Star Wars for the second-highest grossing film of all time in the US).

Scott Mendelson

Weekend Box Office Bingo (08/08/08)

Oddly enough, despite the presence of two Wednesday openers, there is still a bit of mystery to how the weekend will run itself out.

The Pineapple Express - $23 million. Despite a shocking $12.1 million start on Wednesday (a record for a Wednesday opening in August), there is great danger of a front-loaded five-day weekend. As I mentioned the other day, a Wednesday opening can hurt you with movies that are heavily front loaded. The Thursday estimates are already proclaiming a 51% drop to $6 million. Thus, the first day, a Wednesday, will end up being by far the highest day of the opening lane. If the pattern holds, expect a $8 million Friday, a $8 million Saturday, and a $7 million Sunday, give or take a few bucks. Thus, we have a $23 million three-day which will combine for a $41 million five-day take.

This is quite impressive, but the front loaded Wednesday prevented what could have been a $35 million or so three-day, which would have easily taken number 01 for the weekend and allowed bragging rights on two levels. A: The second biggest Apatow-related opening weekend of all time (besting the $30 million hauls for Superbad and Knocked Up and coming in second to the $47 million opening of Talladega Nights). B: Allowing Pineapple Express to brag about taking down The Dark Knight and being the number one film of the weekend. Now there is a real risk that it will come in second, if not third (behind Sisterhood Of The Traveling Pants 2, which is likely a lot less front loaded). $40 million+ in five days is terrific, especially when you consider the genre (it will have out grossed both Harold And Kumar films by Sunday), its budget ($25 million) and the previous filmography of director David Gorden Green, who's previous (justifiably) critically acclaimed intimate dramas about poverty and struggle in rural America have grossed, in total, $134,527 . For once, I finished watching a David Gorden Green film and didn't feel the need to make a donation to the local food bank. For what it's worth, I can say with certainty that Pineapple Express is the least depressing film he has ever made (though to be fair, I have yet to see Snow Angels, but I'll catch it on DVD as soon as it becomes available). Still, I wonder if Sony would have rather had the bragging rights of debuting at number 01 for the weekend and dethroning The Dark Knight by a large margin. Tomato/Tomata I suppose.

Sisterhood Of The Traveling Pants 2 - $17 million. Oh, to stand in for Alexis Bedel in that picture. It was a rare thing to render Rory Gilmore second choice in any ensemble, but the then-unknown Lively Blake pulled it off three years ago. The sequel to the modest ($39 million) hit from 2005 seems to have built on its fan base, grossing literally 3x the Wed/Thurs number of the original heading into the weekend. Chalk it up heavy renting of the original, or the fortunes of Lively Blake and America Ferrera in the past three years, but this is playing like a Bourne sequel in regards to an upgrade in box office. Truth be told, the fact that the original was a pretty darn good movie didn't hurt (the climax of the America Ferrera/Bradley Whitford subplot packed a surprising emotional wallop). If you recall, when the original came out the other two stars, Alexis Bledel and Amber Tamblyn, were the ones with hit hour-long television shows. The original made $3.7 million in its first two days and $9 million over the Fri-Sun portion. Now the original only dipped 10% from Wed to Thurs and this sequel dropped 44%. So the front loading is there, but matinees for this one should be on par with Pineapple Express at the moment. I don't think it'll overtake Pineapple or Dark Knight, but it's possible. Either way, it's yet another relatively high-quality female-centered drama from those sexist, sexist bastards at Warner Bros.

Mummy: Tomb Of The Dragon Emperor: $16 million. A drastic tumble is in the works for this allegedly terrible would-be franchise. Unless the flurry of Olympic ads do the trick, expect this to end up as Brendan Fraser's second highest grossing film of the summer.

The Dark Knight - $24 million. I'm seriously running out of new pictures to post. Expect the sheer amount of new product to cause a 45% tumble, but it could still hold on to the lead position, if only for another five days. Ironically, the film that takes it down will be Tropic Thunder, which is getting much of its buzz from a wacky star turn by Robert Downey Jr, whose Iron Man was pantsed by Mr. Bale and company just a month ago. Call this a token amount of revenge. I've never written the word 'pantsed' before. I hope I spelled it correctly.

I'll be back tomorrow with Friday numbers.

Scott Mendelson

Weekend Box Office Bingo (really quick)

The Mummy: Tomb Of The Dragon Emperor - $45 million. Or, about the $43 million that The Mummy opened to in May of 1999 (I still take pride in being alone in calling that one, when everyone else was predicting $25 million). The original was well-liked (and it's aged well), and the sequel rode a wave of good will and the buzz surrounding The Rock to a stunning $69 million (number 2 all time opening at the time).

Alas, seven years, cast changes, and mediocre reviews will prevent this one from even equaling the inflation-adjusted opening of part 01 (about $60 million). Let's see... director Stephen Summers has been replaced by Rob Cohen (he of Stealth and XXX). Rachel Weisz has been replaced by the far less intriguing Maria Bello. Arnold Vosloo's original mummy seems to have stayed dead. Finally, Oded Fehr's bad-ass Ardeth Bay is nowhere to be found (was he really that busy or was Rob Cohen too stupid to ask Fehr to reprise the role that made him a star and a heart throb?). The only real link to the franchise is lead actor Brendan Fraser and supporting comic relief John Hannah. New to the franchise are Jet Li and Michelle Yeoh, but Li is barely worth $10 million on his own these days. Point being, familiarity, good will towards the first two films, and the need to see another tentpoler inbetween seventh and eight Dark Knight viewings (cough - Hellboy II - cough) are the only things this one has going for it. One weekend and then kaboom for this one.

Swing Vote - $10 million. Costner hasn't had a real hit since August 2003, with the fantastic western Open Range, so this should do about Mr. Brooks numbers. Again, middling reviews won't help, nor will a premise that's so topical that people may feel like they can see it on TV for free.

The Dark Knight - $46 million. Expect Warner to pad the numbers just enough to get past Spider-Man's record for the biggest third-weekend of all time. Also expect it to cross the $400 million mark by Wednesday at the latest (a mere 20 days). The thing just celebrated two full weeks in theaters by hitting $350 million.

Check back tomorrow for info on the Friday numbers.

Scott Mendelson

Weekend Box Office Bingo...

Another tough nut to crack. Here's my iron-clad prediction - The Dark Knight will be number 01 again (wow, I sure am ballsy).

The Dark Knight - $85 million. It's impossible to guess how much it will drop in the second weekend, especially in light of the obscene weekday business (it did $64 million on just Mon-Wed, which would have made it the third-biggest three-day opening of the year). Still, the rush of repeat business during the week could hurt would-be repeat business this weekend, as moviegoers decide to take a break from Batsy to check out the new releases (or, god willing, catch up on Hellboy II). Also, anecdotal evidence suggests that the press-coverage of said weekend and weekday coverage may scare away the casually interested, who may wait till the week or next weekend to avoid crowds. Still, the fan-love of this film and casual interest of this 'event' will more than prevent the usual 60%+ drop that mega-openers often face. So, yes, it most likely will crack $300 million by Sunday, if not Saturday. And, no, I will not be all that surprised if it only drops 37% and pulls off the first-ever $100 million non-opening weekend.

Stepbrothers - $22 million. Hard to peg, since the tracking is similar to Semi-Pro, which surprised with a mere $15 million last March. Still, the ad campaign is much better and forceful this time around (those video posters with Ferrell and Reilly picking on each other are genuinely clever), and the film feels like enough of a departure for Ferrell to bring in the faithful. The reviews are been mixed-to-positive and the film just looks funnier than Semi-Pro (although that film is slightly better than its reputation). For anyone looking for a straight comedy, this has been the only game in town thus far this summer. Although it will hurt the bottom line, as it did on Semi-Pro, it's nice that Ferrell is now making R-rated comedies. We'll see if that keeps up even if this one under performs.

X-Files: I Want To Believe - $20 million. At a cost of merely $35 million, this sequel merely needs to survive in order to turn a long-term profit. The reviews are mediocre, although many of the reviews are complaining that the film is either too much for newbies, not enough for newbies, or plays like an extended episode of the show (as if that's a bad thing considering the show's consistent quality). If not for the juggernaut that is Batman, I'd expect this one to get closer to $25 million, and that may still happen. The X-Files fan base is still relatively obsessed, and even the casual fans (like myself) are likely looking forward to a reunion with old friends. Again, I ask, if the film was going to be made so cheaply, why not go for an R-rating? THAT would have gotten the mainstream public at least a little curious. Anyway, I'd imagine that the film will do about 40% of its business over the next three days, but Fox was smart to restrict the budget and may yet get a franchise of 'stand-alone' episodes every few years.

Both of the above could easily switch places and either of them could hit the $25 million mark.

Check back tomorrow afternoon for a rundown of the Friday night numbers (remember, I won't be first because I want to wait till the ACCURATE estimates come in).

Scott Mendelson

Weekend Box Office Bingo...

NOTE - This is early because I will be out of town from Thursday morning to around Sunday morning. I will be back on Sunday for a detailed rundown on The Dark Knight numbers.
I've argued with myself back and forth for the whole summer about whether The Dark Knight could take down Spider-Man 3's opening weekend record of $151 million. No more pussy footing around... time to make a call and live with it.

The Dark Knight - $125 million. Tonight I choose realism over possible hyperbole. Because young kids will not be as large a force as other recent tent-polers, and because no film has ever opened to over $100 million when opening against any other major film (Dark Knight has genuine competition with Mama Mia!), and because only one film (Pirates 2's $135 million) has ever opened to over $90 million in July...

The reviews are glowing (hell, my 'A-' review is almost a pan in comparison), the online sales are through the roof, and everyone that I know wants to see this movie. I haven't seen this kind of anticipation for any event movie in a long, long time. Perhaps this weekend Batman will reclaim its title amongst super heroes as box-office champion. This is a character whose first series that broke the opening weekend record three times in a row (the first three entries opened to $43 million, $46 million, and $52 million). Batman Begins had a learning curve, not everyone knew if they could trust the franchise after 1997's Batman & Robin. Batman Begins opened to $48 million over Fri-Sun and $72 million from Wed-Sun and earned $200 million the old fashioned way - slowly and through positive word of mouth.

And as we all know, sequels to word of mouth sensations usually explode over opening weekend (Austin Powers 2, Bourne Supremacy, Terminator 2). The theater count will be a record 4,366. Plus, the kids who won't be allowed to see it may be compensated by the adults who will be drawn by the reviews and the cinematic pedigree. And, one can't underestimate the sheer number of people who will show up merely to watch a very famous dead man live one last time onscreen.

But, keep in mind that for this record to fall, The Dark Knight would have to come close to or top Spider-Man 3's $59 million opening day. That means that Batman 2 would have to gross $11 million more in one day than Batman 1 made in its three day opening weekend. And, kids will be a factor, perhaps a fatal one. Almost every review warns not to bring the younger set, so that will be a potential deal breaker. Frankly, most of the press comes from the record-setting online ticket sales, but Sex & The City sold about as many tickets online prior to opening weekend just two months ago. I'm pretty sure that Warner Bros. is hoping for something more than $55 million. I say this to warn against the naysayers who cry foul if it does not shatter any records this weekend. Make no mistake, anything over $90 million is a huge win for this sure-to-be leggy word of mouth hit. So, either it opens like Spider-Man 3 or it opens like Spider-Man. Worst case scenario, it opens like The Matrix Reloaded with $85-90 million. Don't believe anyone who tells you that the latter is a failure. But gosh I'd love to be wrong on this one.

Mama Mia! - $30 million. The reviews are pretty decent, the show has a huge fan base, and the ads have been pretty prevalent. Universal is going after the same audience that New Line chased with Hairspray last year, and they probably will get it. Note - if The Dark Knight pulls is $150 million+, downgrade this prediction to $20 million.

Space Chimps - $155 million. Wouldn't that be ironic? Ok, seriously, about $5 million.

Scott Mendelson

Box Office Bingo...

This weekend is not one I would wager money on, as all three releases are hard to peg. As it is, this is just the calm before the super storm that is next weekend. Next weekend, there is a real possibility that a new opening weekend record will be set. Anticipation is through the roof, the reviews (those who broke the embargo, dammit) are ecstatic, and pre-sales are setting records. I already have my midnight Arclight Dome tickets, and I'm going in full space monkey gear. Yes, Space Chimps is really going to rip the snot out of the box office. But enough about next weekend...

Hellboy II - $35 million. The original opened to $23 million back in April of 2004, so inflation alone would probably get this follow-up to close to $30 million. This may or may not be a case of a small film that grows on video and then the sequel explodes on opening weekend (Terminator 2, Austin Powers 2, The Bourne Supremacy, probably The Dark Knight next weekend). But there are no stars in this sequel that mean anything to the general consumer. There are no catchphrases from the original to use as a lynch pin for an advertising campaign.

The positive reviews will help (I'll see it tonight at the Arclight), but the trailers are perhaps over-selling the fantastical and creepy elements instead of concentrating on the action. So basically expect the same people who turned up for the last one to show up here, with a marginal bump for those who saw and liked the original on video, the more front-loaded nature of movie going compared even to 2004, as well as a random smattering of art house geeks who want to see the next movie by the guy who directed Pans Labyrinth ('Pans Labyrinth 2 - This Time Shit Blows Up!'). Still, Universal (not Sony this time) did break the cardinal rule for sequels - never spend more on your sequel than the original made domestically. Hellboy made $60 million. Hellboy II cost about $75 million. We'll see if the rule applies this weekend.

Journey To The Center Of The Earth - $20 million. Really, this is just throwing darts at a wall. The main appeal (perhaps the only appeal save for die-hard Brendan Fraser fans like myself?) is the 3D imagery, which is supposed to be quite good. The reviews are surprisingly positive and the PG rating will help pull in the youngest action lovers who have been undernourished since Indiana Jones And The Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull 1.5 months ago. The good news is that this one only cost $45 million. The bad news is that while kids films usually print money on DVD, unless they figure out a way to do the 3D effect for BluRay, ala the upcoming Disney Hannah Montana concert film BluRay, I can't imagine this will be a very popular video title (ie - it's theatrical success or death).

After several years more or less out of action, it's great to see Brendan Fraser back in the game with this entry and the upcoming (and allegedly good) Mummy: Tomb Of The Dragon Emperor. The tricky performances he gives amidst all the green screen chaos, not condescending but not overly reverent, are not to be underestimated. Be it the Mummy series, George Of The Jungle, or Looney Tunes - Back In Action, Fraser does larger than life aww-shucks heroism better than anyone else today. And he bloody-well should have won an Emmy for his guest starring bits on Scrubs back in 2002 and 2004 (of course, everyone involved with that show should have won an Emmy by now, if not a Nobel Peace Prize).

Meet Dave - $15 million. Another tricky one to figure, since the advertising has been relatively low-key (save for the terrifying floating Eddie Murphy head), with most of the ads appearing on kid-friendly stations. Still, Eddie Murphy has done well in the PG family comedy arena in the last ten years (what, you thought that people saw Daddy Daycare for Angelica Huston and Lacey Chabert?).

But the title tells you nothing about the movie, as they should have kept the original title, 'Spaceship Dave'. Perhaps they were avoiding comparisons to Murphy's last sci-fi epic, the record all-time biggest money loser Pluto Nash (at a cost of about $130 million including marketing, it grossed $7.1 million worldwide). Still, it's PG, it's short (90 minutes), and it's Eddie Murphy in a high-concept kid-comedy. Figure it for at least $15 million although I wouldn't be shocked if it did 50% more.


Holdovers -

Hancock - $28 million. Last week's champion rode over vengeful reviews to a $62.6 million three-day take. Word of mouth was mixed, though better than the critical word. The fact that we're coming off a major holiday means that Hancock will drop at least 50%, but 55% is in line with recent July 4th openers. Still, if Hancock holds better and Hellboy II fails to build on its predecessor, Hancock will end up repeating its run at number 1, something that only Iron Man has achieved this summer.

Wall-E - $20 million. Expect a leveling off of its larger-than-expected 47% drop.

Wanted - $8 million. Down another 55%. Good riddance.

I'll update tomorrow when the Friday numbers roll in.

Scott Mendelson

Weekend Box Office Bingo...

Not much to report here...

Wall-E - with universally fantastic reviews, and manufactured controversy about the film's content (it's about the environment, no it's about fat people, no it's about consumerism, etc), expect a solid $65 million this weekend, with terrific legs to follow. But, anything above $50 million is just fine for this downright ballsy art house cartoon that's sure to be popular and leggy.

Wanted - It's terrible, but the critics overall seem to be giving it a pass. The marketing has been solid and there is real desire for a hard-R violence-filled action film. On that note, this film more or less delivers. So expect Wanted to debut to about $35 million (anything over $30 million is a triumph), which will hopefully help ease talk about whether women can open action films if they have at least the appearance of quality. James McAvoy is the star, but this thing is being sold completely on Angelina Jolie.

More tomorrow when the actual numbers pour in.

Scott Mendelson

Weekend Box Office Bingo...

I'll make this quick..

Get Smart - $38 million (or a little more than Evan Almighty, but at a third of the budget)
The Incredible Hulk - $25 million
Kung Ku Panda - $21 million
The Love Guru - $18 million
The Happening - $13 million

I'll update tomorrow once the trustworthy sources (ie - not Finke or Fantasy Moguls) report their numbers.

Scott Mendelson

QuickBox Office Bingo...

Quick Box Office Bingo - Sorry for the delay...

The Incredible Hulk - $53 million
The movie stinks, but anticipation is high enough and the film promises non-stop Hulk-smashing (never mind that it fails to deliver). Expect a second-weekend drop almost on par with the Ang Lee original, ironically.


The Happening - $40 million
Curiosity is super high on this one. Reviews are lousy, but many of the major critics (Ebert, NY Times), are recommending it. The R-rating helped this one immensely, even if the TV spots highlighting it were kinda funny.

Anyway, check back tomorrow for the Friday estimates.

Scott Mendelson

Thursday night Box Office Bingo...

I'll have to make this brief as I'm a bit tired.

Kung Fu Panda - $50 million. It's been getting the best reviews for a DreamWorks cartoon since Shrek 2, and the marketing has been saturation-level. Expect this one to play all summer long, even in the face of Wall-E, as audiences discover that it is in fact a far better film than it needed to be.

You Don't Mess With The Zohan - $40 million. It'll be at the higher end of the Sandler comedies. The reviews are 'interesting', as even the negative reviews note that the film is surprisingly thoughtful in regards to the Israel/Palestine conflict (makes me want to see it, and I've never seen a Sandler comedy in theaters in my life).

Sex And The City - $28 million. A 50% drop-off. The insanely front-loaded weekend parlayed into strong weekday sales (about $5.5 million per day), so this probably is not the feared one-weekend wonder (plenty of women I know want to see it and plan to see it but haven't gotten around to it). Expect this one to play like (ironically) an Adam Sandler comedy. Those usually experience a big 50-55% drop only to level out for a month or so as they become the safe second-choice for general moviegoers. Expect the same here as there are no specifically 'female-targeted' films until Mama Mia opens on July 18th. It'll likely end the second weekend with a little over $105 million, which is a terrific total.

Indiana Jones And The Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull - $23 million. A slightly under 50% drop as it becomes the safe second choice for kids who were sold out of Kung-Fu Panda or teens who didn't make their screening of You Don't Mess With The Zohan. As with last weekend, expect huge matinee business to compensate for a weaker Friday night. Expect Indy 4 to end its third weekend with about $253 million. That means that it officially out-grosses the non-adjusted $242 million gross of Raiders Of The Lost Ark and becomes Spielberg's highest grossing film since Jurassic Park back in 1993 ($359 million). And as soon as it crosses $261 million, it'll become Steven Spielberg's third-highest grossing film ever, behind ET: The Extra Terrestrial ($434 million) and Jurassic Park.

The Strangers - $9.5 million. Down 51%, this is already well into the black and everything in this film's short remaining life is pure gravy.

Iron Man - $9 million. Down another measly 35%, this'll end with the weekend with a fantastic $292 million. This and The Strangers could switch places on the chart.

Scott Mendelson

Final Indiana Jones box office guesses...

It's a mere ten hours before the official Thursday estimates come trickling in, so let's do this before it's too late. For what it's worth, I started this post about three days ago but kept getting distracted. I'm not as sharp in the realm of box office guessing as I was back in my high school and college days, but here goes...

The record five day opening is $172 million for Star Wars: Episode III: Revenge Of The Sith. Other numbers to consider are the $140 million five-day gross for The Matrix Reloaded and the $121 million five-day gross for Star Wars: Episode II: Attack Of The Clones. Since Indiana Jones' opening weekend will officially be the same Thurs-Mon schedule as those three examples (with the added benefit of Monday being Memorial Day), those films can figure in here.

Now, in theory, every person who went to see Star Wars Episode III would likely go to Indiana Jones 4 just as briskly. Of course, in three years, people get older and lifestyles change (I'm married with a kid and getting over a cold, so instead of the Wednesday midnight showing, I'm waiting till a Saturday 3pm matinée), but the general fan base remains the same. The question is whether the older, busier fans will see it during opening weekend or be willing to wait till its convenient, even if that means Tuesday or next weekend. The reviews have been mostly positive (79% on Rotten Tomatoes) and there is a general sense of relief that the film wasn't botched. All in all, the hype and reviews are setting the stage for a mammoth weekend.

However, don't expect any single day records. Unlike most tent pole franchises of late, Indiana Jones is skewing a little older, banking on adults and twenty-somethings who loved the series more so than young kids who think that Indy looks swell. Thus, there may not be enough newer young fans to compensate for the ones who are growing too old for the 'see it as soon as possible' mentality. And, since again this is a series that skews older, beware of older fans over-estimating the crowds and deciding to skip opening weekend. This happened with Star Wars: Episode One, where there was so much talk about how quickly sold-out each showing would be that many casual fans decided to wait and not fight the crowds, thus preventing the three-day Fri-Sun record from being broken.

Also, in a manner similar to Shrek 2, this is a weekday opening of a movie that fans and casual moviegoers can wait till the weekend to catch. Thus, the film's biggest day will likely not be Thursday, but rather Friday or Saturday. Anything over $30 million for Thursday would be a huge win, and don't believe the naysayers who decry a mere $25 million opening take. A $25 million Thursday could easily equal a $35 million Friday that could build, Shrek 2-style, into a $40 million Saturday.

Taking that into account, expect a $110 million Fri-Sun gross, plus about $25 million for Thursday and $25 million for Monday. So that puts the probable (who are we kidding, I'm just doing the math and guessing just like everyone else) five-day number at a bountiful $160 million (which would put it fourth all time, behind Spider-Man 3, Pirates 2, and Star Wars III). Of course, if the numbers get anywhere near the $169 million that Spidey and Pirates scored, expect some number-massaging to allow Indy to move up the list to number two.

So, there it is, Scott Mendelson's official Indiana Jones And The Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull predictions:

Thursday - $25 million
Friday - $35 million
Saturday - $40 million
Sunday - $35 million
Monday - $25 million
Total Five-Day - $160 million
Official three-day weekend number (Fri-Sun) - $110 million

I'll likely update tomorrow once the actual numbers come in.

Scott Mendelson

Prince Caspian weekend preview and a note on summer running times...

Prince Caspian screened on Monday night and the reviews are surprisingly positive. I may be able to check this one out over the weekend, otherwise I'll try to grab a cheap Sunday morning show next weekend while everyone else is at Indy. With reviews like this, the opening number will probably be closer to $80 million than $45 million. The original opened to $67 million back in December of 2005. And since most of the casual and hardcore moviegoers have already seen Iron Man and don't seem to care about Speed Racer, this is the only option in town. Let's give it a Two-Towers type boost and peg it at $85 million. Still, it could pull a Shrek 2 (same release weekend, same 'eh, that's nice' level of interest for a seemingly unwanted sequel), although it's 145 minute running time will prevent any records from being shattered.

Speaking of running times, isn't it a little ironic that Indiana Jones And The Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull, at 120 minutes, is turning out to be one of the shortest of the major tent poles this summer. This from Steven Spielberg, who literally went 21 years without making a film that was under two hours (from 1984's 118 minute Indiana Jones And The Temple Of Doom to 2005's 105 minute War Of The Worlds). Yet now Steven is the slim and trim filmmaker in a summer filled with some very long movies.

Let's look at just May:

Iron Man - 126 minutes
Speed Racer - 135 minutes
Prince Caspian - 145 minutes
Indiana Jones And The Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull - 120 minutes
Sex And The City - 140 minutes

And there is every possibility that The Incredible Hulk could run a touch over two hours. That was a point of contention between director Louis Letterrier and the Marvel bosses (ironically, Ed Norton ended up getting tagged again as a troublemaker, this time while siding with the director). Hellboy was over two hours so Hellboy II probably will be too. I have no idea how long Hancock will run, but X-Files 2 oughta run at least 125 minutes (ie - the length of about three television episodes), and Mama Mia will likely be over two hours, as are most musicals. The likely winner for the shortest live-action tent pole could be M Night's The Happening, as his movies almost all have the odd habit of being about 107 minutes.

And, of course, the alleged epic of the summer, The Dark Knight will allegedly run a whopping 165 minutes (another reason why it won't break records on opening weekend, natch). Of course, if the movie is any good, I could watch a six hour cut, but there is a fear of Pirates 3 and Spider-Man 3 style bloat. Here's to it playing more like The Godfather of superhero films and less like Heaven's Gate.

Scott Mendelson

Inflated Expectations...

For the record, if a rival executive tells you that someone else's movie is going to break records on its opening weekend, don't believe them. In the same way that politicians inflate the expectations of their rivals in a primary, convention, or general election, studios often use the media to create unrealistic expectations of how someone else's movie will perform.

To wit - anything over $70 million for Iron Man is a huge win, especially as the reviews are positive, so it should have some breathing room before Indy 4 (Speed Racer is a huge question mark and Prince Caspian is chasing a different demo). Anything under $50 million is a disappointment and cause for concern for franchise potential. This is the best slot to open your summer movie - period. Even with bad reviews and bad pre-release buzz, Universal's Van Helsing still pulled in $52 million in this slot back in 2004.

But Marvel comic book movies are not sequels to each other. In the same way that Madagascar was not a sequel to Shrek 2 (if you recall, analysts went crazy because Madagascar opening on Memorial Day Weekend 2005 to 'only $65 million in four days', 'less than half of Shrek 2's opening five day figure!!'), Iron Man is not Spider-Man 4. Anyone who is expecting Iron Man do to over $100 million is either lying or overly optimistic.

Could it do such a number? Of course, it COULD. Despite the 'no girls allowed' nature of the marketing, Downey Jr is the ultimate 'rebel in need of saving' for many women. And, of course, you need both sexes to do anything over $40 million. If the Downey factor is enough to draw in willing females (as opposed to begrudging girlfriends and women who like big metal toys as much as boys), then X2 numbers are not out of question ($85 million on this same weekend in 2003).

For the record, I'm not one who believes that Grand Theft Auto IV is going to make a major dent in the numbers. The game came out yesterday and gamers have to take a break sometime this weekend. Besides, what about the much anticipated release of Mario Kart Wii? Or will that be the alleged cause if Speed Racer under performs next week? But, it could make a small impact, perhaps the difference between doing $75 million and $85 million. There are plenty of adults who bought the game yesterday but will be too busy with jobs and family to play it before the weekend.

Point being, as the summer begins, let us try to keep perspective and be realistic about what movies will open to how much. $100 million+ would be an ungodly triumph for Paramount/Marvel, but don't believe the Monday-morning quarterbacks who snicker at $65 million.

Scott Mendelson