Thursday, June 5, 2008

Thursday night Box Office Bingo...

I'll have to make this brief as I'm a bit tired.

Kung Fu Panda - $50 million. It's been getting the best reviews for a DreamWorks cartoon since Shrek 2, and the marketing has been saturation-level. Expect this one to play all summer long, even in the face of Wall-E, as audiences discover that it is in fact a far better film than it needed to be.

You Don't Mess With The Zohan - $40 million. It'll be at the higher end of the Sandler comedies. The reviews are 'interesting', as even the negative reviews note that the film is surprisingly thoughtful in regards to the Israel/Palestine conflict (makes me want to see it, and I've never seen a Sandler comedy in theaters in my life).

Sex And The City - $28 million. A 50% drop-off. The insanely front-loaded weekend parlayed into strong weekday sales (about $5.5 million per day), so this probably is not the feared one-weekend wonder (plenty of women I know want to see it and plan to see it but haven't gotten around to it). Expect this one to play like (ironically) an Adam Sandler comedy. Those usually experience a big 50-55% drop only to level out for a month or so as they become the safe second-choice for general moviegoers. Expect the same here as there are no specifically 'female-targeted' films until Mama Mia opens on July 18th. It'll likely end the second weekend with a little over $105 million, which is a terrific total.

Indiana Jones And The Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull - $23 million. A slightly under 50% drop as it becomes the safe second choice for kids who were sold out of Kung-Fu Panda or teens who didn't make their screening of You Don't Mess With The Zohan. As with last weekend, expect huge matinee business to compensate for a weaker Friday night. Expect Indy 4 to end its third weekend with about $253 million. That means that it officially out-grosses the non-adjusted $242 million gross of Raiders Of The Lost Ark and becomes Spielberg's highest grossing film since Jurassic Park back in 1993 ($359 million). And as soon as it crosses $261 million, it'll become Steven Spielberg's third-highest grossing film ever, behind ET: The Extra Terrestrial ($434 million) and Jurassic Park.

The Strangers - $9.5 million. Down 51%, this is already well into the black and everything in this film's short remaining life is pure gravy.

Iron Man - $9 million. Down another measly 35%, this'll end with the weekend with a fantastic $292 million. This and The Strangers could switch places on the chart.

Scott Mendelson

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