Why isn't Paramount opening Captain America over July 4th weekend?

Random thought as I noticed this pic grabbed from an AICN spy from a recent licensing show. First of all, perusing over to Box Office Mojo's film release schedule page, it's already apparent that summer 2011 will be an absolute monster of a season. Already on tap are such surefire heavyweights as Spider-Man 4, Thor, Kung Fu Panda: The Kaboom of Doom, Green Lantern, Cars 2, Transformers 3, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows part II, and The First Avenger: Captain America (that's just between May 4th and July 22nd). Assuming none of these films change release dates, I can spot three surefire $100 million openers (Spider-Man 4, Transformers 3, Harry Potter 7.2) with a few others as strong possibilities.

Second of all, I can almost guarantee that Warner Bros. will eventually move Harry Potter 7.2 from its Friday 7/15/11 date to a Wednesday 7/13/11 release, if only to give it a full week and a half to breathe before Captain America. Third of all, wouldn't you think that Captain America would drastically benefit from a July 4th weekend release date? It seems like an obvious choice, yet as of this moment, it is Transformers 3 that has the July 1st release date. Since both films are distributed by Paramount (although Paramount only gets a distribution fee from the Marvel pictures), let me offer some seemingly-plausible advice: Transformers 3 will open like gangbusters regardless of when it chooses to be released (especially if Revenge of the Fallen is as well received as the first film). But opening Captain America over the July 4th holiday weekend may make the difference between a $75 million opening weekend and a $125 million holiday weekend. Regardless of my last bit of advice to Paramount (I still think Star Trek would have had as good or better legs in the holiday season), letting Americans ring in the most patriotic of holidays with Steve Rogers' maiden voyage seems like a no-brainer.

Scott Mendelson