Lesson - "It's the studio, stupid". With a $7.5 million opening day, it looks like Kick-Ass is performing exactly like a top-line Lionsgate picture that isn't a Saw sequel or Tyler Perry film. Take those two franchises away, and Lionsgate has never had an opening weekend above $23.9m (Fahrenheit 9/11). After that and the unexpectedly high $23m debut of The Haunting in Connecticut, Lionsgate films are all $21m and below. I'm not sure why anyone thought Lionsgate could somehow pull a rabbit out of its hat with a film that was specifically aimed at a small audience (getting banned by Carmike Cinemas didn't help either). Like Snakes on a Plane, this is a $35 million picture that was always intended to be a cult film, but was inexplicably predicted to break out by a media that still thinks that hardcore geeks are worth tens of millions in opening weekend box office. A commenter correctly compared the hard-core geek audience to the Tea Party; a small and vocal minority dominating the media coverage but not making much real-world impact. This thing was basically Rambo ($6.6m first day, $18m opening weekend) with more controversy, and that's about how its playing. No big deal, the film will still make money in the long run. It's just a case of box office pundits not doing the math/history before making predictions. Anyone who thought this non-sequel, non-established franchise, R-rated cult-film from a AAA minor-league studio would somehow open to $30 million or $40 million was completely insane.Scott Mendelson
