Lesson - "It's the studio, stupid". With a $7.5 million opening day, it looks like Kick-Ass is performing exactly like a top-line Lionsgate picture that isn't a Saw sequel or Tyler Perry film. Take those two franchises away, and Lionsgate has never had an opening weekend above $23.9m (Fahrenheit 9/11). After that and the unexpectedly high $23m debut of The Haunting in Connecticut, Lionsgate films are all $21m and below. I'm not sure why anyone thought Lionsgate could somehow pull a rabbit out of its hat with a film that was specifically aimed at a small audience (getting banned by Carmike Cinemas didn't help either). Like Snakes on a Plane, this is a $35 million picture that was always intended to be a cult film, but was inexplicably predicted to break out by a media that still thinks that hardcore geeks are worth tens of millions in opening weekend box office. A commenter correctly compared the hard-core geek audience to the Tea Party; a small and vocal minority dominating the media coverage but not making much real-world impact. This thing was basically Rambo ($6.6m first day, $18m opening weekend) with more controversy, and that's about how its playing. No big deal, the film will still make money in the long run. It's just a case of box office pundits not doing the math/history before making predictions. Anyone who thought this non-sequel, non-established franchise, R-rated cult-film from a AAA minor-league studio would somehow open to $30 million or $40 million was completely insane.Scott Mendelson
5 comments:
You can say Lionsgate's films have been known to be on the low end of the spectrum box-office, but there is no way this is not a disappointment for the studio. The low number was not expected.
True, they spent $50 million to acquire the picture with the intent that the release would show that they could play in the comic book big leagues. But, alas, they apparently cannot. Frankly, if they can't open The Expendables above $25 million come August, they may have to take a serious look at what they are doing and/or what kind of studio they can realistically hope to be. I adore Lionsgate for their diverse offerings, but Warner could have gotten this to $30 million easy.
Scott,
Can you help elaborate on the $50 million figure that you say LGF paid for the film. I have been hearing $15 million elsewhere. Is this the result of them paying $15 million for distributional rights and the producers getting their $35 million in costs back first? This is an acquired not produced picture- so it would be great if you could help describe to us a little bit more about how distributional deals like this are composed. Thanks a lot in advance!
Andyrew510, I wrote about the acquisition when it originally occurred back in August 2009.
http://scottalanmendelson.blogspot.com/2009/08/relax-kick-ass-is-not-midnight-meat.html
You can say Lionsgate's films have been known to be on the low end of the spectrum box-office, but there is no way this is not a disappointment for the studio. The low number was not expected.
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