Mendelson's Memos weekend box office rundown (04/19/09)

Well, it looks like Zac Efron may just be a movie star. On nearly the same weekend where, five years ago, Jennifer Garner broke out with an ironically opposite premise, the High School Musical/Hairspray teen idol has claimed his first 'all by myself' hit film. Aided by a simple premise, surprisingly good reviews, and a buzz-building appearance on Saturday Night Live the weekend before, 17 Again opened to $23.7 million. That's certainly comparable to the $21 million opening for Garner's 13 Going On 30, which also opened two weekends before the summer season back in 2004 (it had to settle for number two, losing a close race to Denzel Washington's Man On Fire). That underrated romantic comedy cashed out relatively quickly, ending its run with $57 million. On the other hand, the 'all by myself' breakout for Efron's relative contemporary, Shia LaBeouf's Disturbia, opened to $22 million on the exact same weekend two years ago and parlayed it into a shockingly leggy run, ending with $88 million (we'll see if Efron follows suit and takes the lead role in Michael Bay's Thundercats). We'll of course know which path 17 Again will venture come Saturday morning.

Apparently Efron's decision to drop out of the Footloose remake was a wise one, as he can now claim a solid opening weekend that doesn't explicitly involve singing and dancing. Of course, he doesn't have Steven Spielberg personally steering him into surefire hit projects. Where the kid goes from here is a terrific question. Doing a bunch of romantic comedies turns him into Freddie Prinze Jr. Enemy Of The State/Eagle Eye type thrillers are a good bet, since they allow him to dip his toe into the action genre without having to convince anyone that he is a bad ass. But mainstream big budget thrillers are a dying breed (more on that below). The Johnny Quest update with Dwayne Johnson sounds smart. The (probably false) rumor about him wanting to remake Back to the Future is a way to get burned in effigy.

Second place goes this weekend to the terrific grown-up thriller State of Play. Pundits will whine that the $14 million opening weekend, along with the similar opening to Duplicity, signals the death knell for the grown up movie. While adult, star-driven suspense pictures are an inexplicably dying breed, movies of this nature have rarely opened particularly large. The only issue with movies like this is that studios continue to budget these films so that they absolutely have to open to $20 million+ in order to turn a profit. State of Play should have cost $40 million, instead of $60 million. Same goes for Duplicity. How they trim said budgets in the future is up to them, but something needs to give if this genre is to survive. Of course, Universal could be using shifty accounting to take money from an over budget tent pole (think Public Enemies or The Wolfman) and shift it to these mid range pictures to make the former look cheaper.

Not every thriller can be expected to open like The Fugitive, especially if they lack a mega star like Harrison Ford or Denzel Washington. And, sorry folks, but Russell Crowe is not a mega star. He's had a few big openers - Gladiator (would have opened huge with any number of actors), Master and Commander: The Far Side Of The World, and American Gangster (aided by Denzel), but his vehicles have otherwise opened around the $15 million mark. The good ones (3:10 To Yuma) hang around for awhile and make it to $55 million. The bad ones (Body Of Lies) crash quickly and fail to reach $40 million.

The other major opening, Crank 2: High Voltage, effectively ended Lionsgates's 2009 hot streak. Failing to even match the $10.4 million opening weekend of the original, this second entry opened to a meager $6.9 million. Obviously the real money for this was always going to be DVD-related, but I'm a little surprised by the under performance. Factor this with the barely acceptable performance of the stunningly boring Transporter 3, and Jason Statham has to take a serious look in the mirror and see where he wants to go from here. It's terrific that someone is filling the low-budget, down-and dirty action star label, but I sincerely wish his films were just a little better. I know hoping for something as good as The Bank Job every time out is silly, but at least as good as Transporter 2 shouldn't be too much to ask.

All three openers from last weekend absolutely collapsed. The Hannah Montana Movie plunged 58% to end day ten with $57 million. It's trailing High School Musical 3: Senior Year by about $5 million at this point, although the second weekend drop was 4% lower and the Cyrus picture's opening was about ten million lower. So Hannah Montana's latest vehicle may just end up with an identical $90 million final gross. Observe and Report plunged 62%, thus ending its chances at getting to $30 million. The controversy over an alleged date-rape scene and countless moronic movie goers not being able to understand a sledge-hammer subtle trailer ("what, this is a dark comedy... who knew?") led to a quick demise for this sure to be cult classic. Dragonball: Evolution dropped 64% to end its second weekend with $8 million. I've heard rumblings that this one somehow cost Fox $150 million. I'm sure they'll deny it till the end of time, but if it's true, this will be one of the biggest money losers in Hollywood history. So if all of Fox's tent poles seem a little bit more expensive than you'd think, then you can be sure there was some shifty accounting going on to cover for Dragonball: Evolution.

And that's all the important news that's fit to print. Next weekend is relatively light, as the much delayed The Soloist squares off against the Fatal Attraction-wannabe Obsessed, Disney's nature documentary Earth, and the imaginatively titled Fighting. Yup, it's a pre-summer dump week.

Scott Mendelson

Review: State Of Play (2009)

State of Play
2009
127 minutes
Rated PG-13

by Scott Mendelson

State of Play is the very sort of movie that 'they just don't make anymore'. Despite its attempts to include newfangled ideas regarding new journalism and the topical subject matter, it is a refreshingly old-fashioned star-driven thriller. As to be expected from any two hour film adapted from a six-hour British mini-series, this is a plot-packed movie, but also one that feels surprisingly leisurely. It does not rush from plot twist to plot twist, but remembers to keep character front and center.

A token amount of plot - On the eve of congressional hearings into Point Corp, a multi-billion dollar private security firm that does business with the US for overseas operations, Congressman Stephen Collins (Ben Affleck) is stained by scandal when his head researcher and mistress dies in an apparent accident. As Collins struggles to maintain his career, his former college roommate, Washington Globe reporter Cal McAffrey (Russell Crowe), discovers an inexplicable connection between the young woman's tragic death and the shooting of a junkie. That's all you need. The film quickly becomes the most satisfying sort of puzzle. While there certainly are several 'plot twists', they are not the sort that make you question or reassess everything you've seen up to that point. Rather, as each layer of the story is pealed back, the plot makes more sense, not less. The characters' actions seem more plausible and the overriding themes at play become stronger.

Russell Crowe gives a weary, but vaguely optimistic performance as an old-guard journalist who knows he is of a dying breed. Helen Mirren shines as the paper's editor, torn between her love of old-fashioned shoe leather journalism and the fact that the newfangled blog world is a far larger moneymaker. She has a devastating moment where she almost casually explains how a major story that turns out to be false will sell more papers than a true story, since the resulting denials and recriminations become additional stories unto themselves. Ben Affleck once again proves what a fine actor he is when he's not forced to be a movie star. Only Robin Wright Penn and Rachel McAdams are underused, though they do what they can with what they are given. The former is stuck with a token role as Affleck's scorned wife, and her apparent romantic history with Crowe fails to pay off. McAdams fairs worse though, as young hotshot blogger Della Frye who must represent that fact-less, gossipy, copy-every-hour new journalism that is theoretically killing the news.

That State of Play champions objective journalism over opinion-based online snark pieces is an obvious, though still noble, path. But blogger Della Frye never establishes an identity of her own. We never really learn what kind of blogger she is, what she likes to write about, or how she feels about the current tug-of-war that exists in the newspaper community. That corporatization of newspapers is the real issue, and blogging is merely a symptom, is barely mentioned. And the relationship between her and Crowe is almost laughably one-sided. She learns the value of honest investigative journalism and learns to 'be a real reporter', yet he learns nothing and gains no insight from her.

Still, the blogging versus reporting angle turns out to be a minor one, so its failure to really come together is at best a moderate flaw. But as a crime drama, a political thriller, and a journalistic who-dun-it-and-why, it is never less than completely compelling. The alleged conspiracy that is eventually unraveled is completely plausible and absolutely chilling, and I'm assuming any similarities to the terrific seventh season of 24 are coincidental. Aside from the stars, there are several fun supporting turns by the likes of Jeff Daniels and Jason Bateman. Once again, Bateman takes a stock character and infuses him with humanity, sympathy, and a specific point of view (see also - Hancock, Juno, Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium ). He is quickly becoming one of the finest character actors around.

While the film is implicitly about the death of newspapers and the death of conventional journalism, it also ends up being about the death of itself. By that I mean the film ends up being an eulogy of sorts to the adult thriller, the star-driven suspense picture, and the very idea of mainstream movies for grownups. As their numbers dwindle in the wake of superhero epics, tween-driven comedies, and 3D animated features, the star-driven potboiler, once the most popular of genres, is becoming an endangered species. And by casting Russell Crowe and Ben Affleck, two men who were once the biggest stars in Hollywood, the film becomes a monument to the death of the conventional movie star. As the traditional leading man is supplanted by the geekey outsider or the dweebish underdog (think Shia Labeouf or Zac Efron), the picture becomes an ode to all things old-fashioned. It mourns the death of traditional journalism, traditional movie stars, and even traditional movies. One cannot dispute that State of Play represents a fine example of all three relics.

Grade: A-

Inglorious Bastards clip premieres during American Idol. Wouldn't 24 or Fringe have been more appropriate?

Remember that part, about midway through Saving Private Ryan, when everyone looked at their movie going companions in moderate surprise and confusion? We all whispered the same thing: "wait a minute... is that Ted Danson?". He was fine in his small role, and we all forget that he had a career as a dramatic actor before Cheers, but it still stuck out like a sore thumb. Apparently Quentin Tarantino remembers that too. That guy who narrates the first portion of this Inglorious Bastards clip? Yup, that's Mike Myers. According to a Google search, his casting is old news, but I had no idea (I certainly would have brought it up while discussing The Love Guru in my end-of-summer wrap article).

Anyway, I'm amused that this heavily self-indulgent clip can't even say the name of the movie, since it's airing during the 8pm family hour of Fox's American Idol. I wonder if Joe Lieberman would have anything to say, since this is just the sort of 'marketing R-rated movies to youth audiences' that had him in such a tizzy back in 2000.

Scott Mendelson

Harry Potter And The Half-Blood Prince trailer (and a toast to a remarkably consistent franchise).

I know this is something like the sixth trailer for Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince, but this thing looks amazing. As if to assuage the fears of fans over the PG rating, this trailer is cut like an R-rated supernatural thriller, with many of the frightening images that fans were afraid would be cut. Intensity and foreboding are the words of the day. There are a few images I would count as spoilers, but probably only because I've read the book and recognize the context. Book six was one of my favorite books of the series, and this very well could be the best film so far. Unless Star Trek really breaks out and/or Transformers 2 corrects every flaw that was present in the first film, I can't see anything beating this one in the summer box office derby.

I think we all need to stop a minute and realize what a phenomenal achievement this film series is. We have a giant eight film series and, with only three films left, every film has been consistently solid and completely compelling. Sure some films have been better than others (and I'm amazed at how enjoyable a movie David Yates was able to craft from the mediocre fifth book), but the Harry Potter saga has been one terrific movie after another. The casting has been frighteningly perfect and the technical aspects are peerless. The young actors have improved with each film and the supporting cast is obviously having the time of their lives (did anyone ever think that Alan Rickman would find an even more iconic role than Hans Gruber?). It may not have the mythical fandom of Star Wars and it may not have the awards and prestige of The Lord of the Rings, but the Harry Potter franchise has almost quietely crafted one of the finest fantasy myths of our generation. Whether one franchise is better than another is fine to debate, but Harry Potter deserves to stand tall right beside Luke Skywalker and Frodo Baggins.

Scott Mendelson

Review: 17 Again (2009)

17 Again
2009
102 minutes
Rated PG-13

by Scott Mendelson

There is a constant conflict within 17 Again, the pull over whether to be a real movie with real issues at its core vs. the need to appeal to the basest instincts in the stereotypical fans of teen-star Zac Efron. While the film sets up a genuinely compelling narrative, it quickly ignores that which made its story interesting in favor of assembly-line plot developments and overly broad character work. There's an awfully good movie lurking about three or four drafts down the line from where the screenwriter Jason Filardi apparently stopped. But, be it because of the WGA strike or a general lack of nerve, the film never really tells the story that it wants to tell.

A token amount of plot: Mike O'Donnell (Matthew Perry) forever regrets the fateful choice he made as a high school senior, to run off the basketball court in a key game in order to declare that he would marry his pregnant girlfriend. Having forsaken college and dreams of basketball stardom, he's currently stuck in a dead-end corporate job, with two teenage children who loathe him and a wife who has just thrown him out of the house, a consequence of eighteen-years of self-pity. However, at his lowest point, a burst of magic turns Mike into his seventeen-year old self (Zac Efron), giving Mike the chance to redo high school all over again. But is that really why he was transformed?

While the film is capably acted by all involved (as Mike's wife, Leslie Mann is given more to do than in her own husband's Funny People), the script feels like a first draft. Explicit plot and character exposition is doled out in overt expository monologues and very little is left unexplained during the somewhat rushed first act. Furthermore, the film never really deals with what Mike really wants. He doesn't want to relive high school, he wants to go back to high school in 1989 and make different choices. But since a mainstream family comedy can't really have a hero (played mostly by a teen idol no less) who wishes he didn't have his kids, the film tries to have it both ways. He gets to relive high school as himself, but in the present so his wife and kids are still alive and well. It's a strange paradox that turns the film into a variation on Quantum Leap, with Mike trying to figure out what he has to do to make things right. Playing the part of Al/Ziggy is Mike's high school chum, nerd-turned-billionaire nerd Ned Gold (Thomas Lennon), who has a superfluous romantic subplot with the school principal. Ironically, a first-act toy light-saber fight between 'young' Mike and older Ned is better choreographed and edited than most action-film sword fights.

Alas, the second and third acts are pretty much on autopilot, as he must be the husband and father to his family that he never was as an adult, while still maintaining his seventeen-year old visage. On the plus side, Mrs. Scarlett O'Connell almost immediately realizes that something is up (she quickly notices the fact that this new kid looks EXACTLY like Mike from high school), which allows the movie to plausibly dabble in a quasi-romantic narrative between young Mr. O'Connell and a grown-up Scarlett. The film is relatively inoffensive and Zac Efron proves yet again that he is a true honest-to-goodness movie star (he also rocked in Hairspray), but the picture never really tries to break out of its cookie-cutter formula. Call it a mediocre, watchable missed opportunity.

Grade: C+

The Big Bang Theory explains why DC Comics Universe is dumb...

Choice dialogue from Monday night's The Big Bang Theory:

Penny - “Do you think my nephew would like this (comic book)?”

Sheldon - “Perfect. He just has to be familiar with Infinite Crisis, 52, Countdown, Final Crisis and the re-emergence of the multiverse.”

Penny - “What’s the Multiverse?”

Sheldon - ….exactly.

First of all, with no small shame, I admit that I caught and understood every single Batman comic book reference on last night's show. And yes, any idiot who thinks that back-from-the-dead Jason Todd* should become Batman following the (temporary/stupid) death of Bruce Wayne deserves to not score with Penny.

I'm also pretty sure that the comic book store that the gang visited contained not a single Marvel comic book. It was packed with DC comics trade paperbacks and seemingly nothing but DC product. Of course, CBS made up for it with an episode of How I Met Your Mother that seemingly had posters of X-Men Origins: Wolverine plastered in the background of every exterior shot (to say nothing of a quick sight gag involving plastic Wolverine claws).

No real point to this post. The Big Bang Theory has quickly become my wife's favorite show and my second favorite sitcom behind Scrubs, and I just felt like writing about it.

Scott Mendelson

* - As some of you know, Jason Todd was the second Robin, who was murdered by The Joker in 1989, as a result of a telephone poll that let readers decide whether the divisive character would survive an explosion. He inexplicably came back from the dead a few years ago, apparently as a result of the Pre-Crisis Superboy punching at at an interstellar wall a bunch of times (and they say that comics are unfairly ghettoized as a childrens' medium).

Anyway, the original idea was for Dick Grayson (Robin #1) to perish in the major DC event of that year, Infinite Crisis. Thus a reanimated Jason Todd would take his place as Nightwing, Grayson's current superhero alias. Alas, the character of Superboy became tangled in a lawsuit involving DC Comics and the heirs of Superman creators Jerry Siegel and Joe Shuster over character rights and residuals. Thus, in a completely unrelated coincidence, Dick Grayson was spared and Superboy instead perished in the sixth issue of Infinite Crisis. So now the DC universe was left with two former Robins, one who was supposed to be long dead and another who was supposed to be newly deceased. Strained retconning and terrible storytelling ensued.

I'm sorry for the digression, I just love telling that story for the same reason I love telling the story of New Coke.

Who knew that Zac Efron was funny?

The writers let him down, but Zac Efron more than held his own on Saturday Night Live over the weekend. The writers sabotaged his genuinely funny opening monologue with unnecessary insertions of cast members playing tween girls , and many of the skits were not particularly clever, but Efron did his part. He didn't play himself in a single skit and he was either the lead or a major supporting player nearly every sketch. Ironically the best skit of the night was the obligatory High School Musical bit. I usually roll my eyes when guest hosts are forced to endure a lead-footed spoof of their most famous franchise, but his tragic-comic speech to the next graduating class of his former high school was the highlight of the evening.

His solid hosting gig, coupled with surprisingly positive reviews, has compelled me to try to actually see 17 Again when it opens this weekend (my wife can ogle Efron, I can ogle Michelle Trachtenberg, so everybody wins). This kid may just be the real thing.

Scott Mendelson

Mendelson's Memos weekend box office rundown (04/12/09)

Several months ago, I somewhat expected The Hannah Montana Movie to open to about $60 million. Alas, since the "mere" $42 million opening for High School Musical 3 and the downright disappointing $12 million opening for The Jonas Brothers 3D Concert Experience, expectations were around $40 million. Disney amazingly got away with claiming that it only expected a $17 million opening weekend (which is what The Lizzie Maguire Movie opened to in May, 2003). And, while I initially doubted Disney's decision to move this pic away from the May 1st summer kick off slot, I now realize why they did it. Having the film open on Good Friday was a brilliant way to both boost opening day numbers and provide a cover when the box office dropped like a stone on Saturday and Sunday. "It's not insanely front loaded with little cross over appeal, it was just Easter weekend!"

The Hannah Montana Movie officially grossed $32.3 million over the weekend, which includes a whopping $17.4 million Friday. So, yes, the opening day-to-weekend multiplier is a stunningly low 1.85x. That's easily the lowest that can ever remember for a major release, besting the 1.9x multiplier for Twilight last November. It actually fell to second place on Saturday behind Fast & Furious, and down to third place by Sunday behind Fast & Furious and Monsters Vs. Aliens. Still, the massive opening day was just enough to clinch the number one spot. To be fair, Twilight actually ended up displaying minor legs, stretching a $69 million opening weekend into a $192 million final domestic total. I do not expect any such legs for Hannah Montana as there is really no reason for people outside the fan base to check this one out. Still, the movie probably cost about $15 million and, even if it completely collapses, it will make at least $75 million by the end. We'll know the story by this weekend when it faces off against Zac Efron's 17 Again.

Also opening was Observe and Report, which is quickly turning into 'Seth Rogen's date rape movie'. Alas, moviegoers seemed to be completely unable to realize that the film's dark, brooding and satirical trailer was in fact advertising a dark, brooding, satirical comedy. It opened to $4.7 million and plunged to $3.8 million on Saturday and $2.4 million on Sunday. That makes an $11 million opening weekend and a terrible 2.3x multiplier. Considering this was a sequel or a genre picture that had any rush appeal, this can only mean that word out mouth was lousy. Alas, this nearly brilliant little gem won't make it to $30 million.

I saw a magazine cover last week that offered a contest exclaiming 'win a private screening of Dragonball Evolution for you and fifty of your friends'. All I could think was... all you have to do to get a private screening of Dragonball Evolution is go to any theater playing Dragonball Evolution over opening weekend. Yes, the third and final opener was 20th Century Fox's Dragonball Evolution. It pulled in a whopping $4.7 million. I've heard stories about Emmy Rossum's difficult to work with stage mother, but the girl has talent and surely deserves better than this garbage.

Elsewhere, Fast & Furious plunged an expected 61% to $27 million. The ten day total is a solid $116 million. The third Friday of Monsters Vs. Aliens actually surpassed its second Friday numbers before settling in for a pretty solid 33% drop. The weekend take was $22 million and the new total is $140 million. It will be close, but I doubt that either of these films will make it to $200 million. For the record, I finally saw Monsters Vs. Aliens in IMAX 3D. The visuals are amazing and the sheer scope and size of the film is breathtaking. It sincerely makes me wish that Dreamworks had the courage to make a serious science-fiction adventure film instead of a jokey, sci-fi comedy. I've said this before, but have we reached the point where a film that actually has to open to $80 million to safely reach $200 million total gross? Madagascar 2, Quantum Of Solace, Twilight, and Fast & Furious - We've had literally four major films, all relatively well liked by the audiences that they were aimed at, that have opened to between $63 million and $72 million since November, and not one of them did or will reach $200 million (Twilight came the closest).

Not much else to report on the front. Next weekend will have the shockingly well-reviewed 17 Again facing off against the pleasantly well reviewed State Of Play and the not reviewed at all Crank 2: High Voltage.

Scott Mendelson

Observe and Report -- Yes, It's date rape, and it's not supposed to be funny (but the movie still is)

Wow, from all the hub-hub about Observe and Report ($4.7 million opening day.. or about what people expected Paul Blart: Mall Cop to open with), you'd never guess that everyone is actually seeing The Hannah Montana Movie ($17 million opening day, about $40 million for the weekend).

MAJOR SPOILERS -

While anyone can like or dislike a film, I think certain critics and pundits who don't like the film are missing the fact that Ronnie is not supposed to be likable. He is a frighteningly obsessive, blindingly judgmental psychotic, and a racist to boot. And many of the other characters are unlikable too. Frankly, I loved that Farris played the female lead without any redeeming qualities, as it was a nice spoof on the idealized dream girl, or the comfortably 'bitchy' drama queen who just wants to be loved. Those complaining that it was sexist for Melanie to be so horrible are missing the point - she is horrible and so is Ronnie.

The film has a very similar vibe to The Cable Guy. And once again a major star is being criticized for playing a character that is well outside the audience's comfort zone. What many people are missing is that, first of all, the very 'redemptive elements' that Ronnie achieves may just be in his imagination. It's open to debate, but (as friend and colleague Randy Shaffer first clued me into), there is evidence that the action climax and the mid-film drug dealer beat down were delusional fantasies. Second of all, and most importantly, not everything that occurs onscreen is supposed to be funny. Just because it is a comedy doesn't mean that every moment is intended to be humorous. Also worth noting to those who criticize Ronnie's alleged redemption is that Ronnie's behavior does not change in the course of the movie. It is only random circumstance that allows his behavior to be viewed in a new, heroic light at the end of the film (again, assuming that the climactic chase actually occurred in the film and not in Ronnie's head), which turns the film around and makes a judgment on the audience instead of just Ronnie.

As for the 'date rape' scene, it's pretty cut and dry date rape, especially from a legal point of view. The humor, if you choose to find it funny, comes from A) wow... he really is a loser and B) wow... he honestly thinks that he had a wonderfully romantic evening. It's perfectly logical in terms of how Ronnie sees the world (he of course thinks of it as a magical night). Audiences who watch the film and think 'that's awesome, he got her drunk/drugged up and had sex on her barely conscious, vomiting body' have their own issues. I'm pretty sure most intelligent folks will think 'he got her drunk and had sex on her barely conscious, vomiting body... that's sad and pathetic'. And even if they don't, that's not the responsibility of the filmmakers.

Whether or not Observe and Report is a good film is open to debate. But criticizing a black comedy/social satire for having unlikable characters, awkward situations, and uncomfortable material is awfully foolish.

Scott Mendelson

Public Enemies trailer 02 now online

Unfortunately, the trailer has debuted in the less than stellar MSN.com format. Regardless, the film still feels like warmed over Heat with American Gangster tossed in. I'd love to be wrong, but the shoddy video format only highlights how cheap certain shots of the film look due to Michael Mann not using actual 35mm film.

To be fair, I've never been a big fan of the whole 'he may be a mass murderer but...' films. IE - he may be the man who initially flooded America with cocaine, but it's OK because he really loves daughter (Blow), or he may be a mass murderer/drug dealer, but it's OK because he bought his mom a house and exposed police corruption (American Gangster). Other would-be excuses for screen villainy include: crying at opera, playing the piano, being a book smart intellectual, and being monogamous for the entire film. Yes, I know that Dillinger was considered a folk-hero of sorts back in the day, and the current public outrage over the behavior of giant banks will only help the film, but a cliche is still a cliche.

Scott Mendelson