3D isn't dying, it's just leveling out. Why consumers choosing 2D is a good for the 3D format and good for the industry.

The sky is not falling in the realm of 3D films.  There has been much handwringing over the last couple weeks as moviegoers have embraced their right to choose to see the latest summer tentpoles in 2D over the higher-priced 3D venues.  For the record, over the last two weekends, audiences purchased tickets to Kung Fu Panda 2 and Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides in their respective 2D formats at a rate of 55/45.  So, despite those films playing in majority 3D theaters (around 65%), 3D ticket sales made up only 45% of the box office for their respective opening weekends.  This is not a new issue and it is not cause for panic or rebuttal.  Rather, it is a healthy sign that audiences are making an informed choice and that studios are offering a wide swath of moviegoers a genuine option when it comes to their 3D franchise pictures.

Weekend Box Office (05/30/11): Hangover 2 scores $135m, Kung Fu Panda 2 nets $66m over Thurs-Mon. Woody Allen and Terence Malick kill in limited release.

The Three Day weekend and the Four Day weekend totals.  It was close, but no cigar, as The Hangover 2 (review) made a run for the R-rated opening three-day weekend record.  As it stands, the film pulled in $85.6 million over the Friday-Sunday frame, falling just $6 million short of the $91.7 million mark set by The Matrix Reloaded back in 2003.  That film, like The Hangover 2, opened on a Thursday and also bested The Hangover 2 in terms of R-rated 4-day numbers ($118 million Thursday-to-Sunday for Hangover 2 versus $134 million Thursday-to-Sunday for Matrix Reloaded) and likely R-rated 5-day totals (The Matrix Reloaded grossed $144 million in its first five days, while The Hangover 2 ended Monday with 'just' $135 million).  Still, this is no defeat of any plausible kind for the $80 million sequel.  As it is, both films were from Warner Bros so there is little reason for the studio to not rejoice.  As it is, the film is set to take down the five-day opening weekend record for an R-rated film, which was the $125 million Wednesday-to-Sunday opening of 20th Century Fox's The Passion of the Christ back in 2004 (the Mel Gibson epic took in $83 million over the Friday-Sunday portion).  In terms of pure Fri-Sun numbers, it was the second-biggest opening of the year, coming in just $300,000 ahead of Fast Five and about $4 million behind Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides.  It's the 25th biggest opening weekend of all time, and easily the biggest opening weekend for a pure live-action comedy (the next closest is Jim Carrey's Bruce Almighty, which made $67 million on this same weekend back in 2003).  It's also the seventh-biggest Fri-Sun gross for a film that didn't open on a Friday.  It's $117.6 million Thurs-Sun total is the 20th biggest four-day gross in history.  Its $135 million five-day total is the eighteenth-biggest ever.  It's Fri-Mon $103 million Memorial Day weekend take was the fourth-biggest on record.  So it missed the R-rated record book, but it's doing just fine.

Why I'm unimpressed by that 'bootleg' teaser for David Fincher's The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo remake.

I didn't post this yesterday because I was under the impression that it was an illegally copied bootleg.  But now I'm hearing word that it was a PR-stunt from Sony pictures, so we'll see what develops.  Anyway, the two core problems with the teaser have nothing to do with its low quality embed.  First of all, the teaser is scored to a piece of music (Immigrants' Song, I believe), and it is merely a quick, context-less cut every time there is a beat in the music.  Quite frankly, this is freshman filmschool trailer editing plain and simple.  It may be painstaking, but there is little to no actual skill involved in merely cutting every time there is a 'beat' in a song, especially when using footage that has no dialogue and no connective tissue.  It's not a trailer so much as an extended music video, one that required much time but little artistic talent or imagination.

Friday Box Office: Hangover 2 grosses $30m, Kung Fu Panda 2 takes in $13.5m, Tree of Life grosses $115,000 on four screens.

For the moment, The Hangover 2 seems to be even stronger than I anticipated, while Kung Fu Panda 2 may not be breaking out as large as I hoped.  Anyway, The Hangover 2 scored another $30 million on Friday night, showing almost no decline from its $31 million opening day.  In fact, when you factor in the $10 million in midnight screenings that made up 1/3 of the opening day, the Friday performance is even more impressive.  Point being, there is a chance that The Hangover 2 will have consistent business all weekend long, as opposed to a heavily-front-loaded opening day.  The two models that may apply are Sex and the City 2 and Terminator: Salvation.  Last year's TV sequel grossed $51 million in five days, earning $26 of that in the first two.  Obviously that film was frontloaded in its first two days, and there is a risk that Hangover 2 may suffer the same fate if it gets harder to do the whole 'guy's night out' thing over the family-friendly holiday (which is a problem that Sex and the City 2 faced last year, with 'girls' night out' being hard to arrange while taking care of the kids and setting up the family events).  Under that model, The Hangover 2 will gross $115 million by Monday night, which is still a solid take.  Under the Terminator: Salvation model, the film will play all weekend long at a consistent pace, giving The Hangover 2 a stunning $141 million over five days.  Obviously, Saturday numbers will tell the tale.

Kung Fu Panda 2 plays the Shrek 2 game, scores $5.8 million opening day. Come what may, we should see a record weekend multiplier.

Paramount and Dreamworks took a big risk opening Kung Fu Panda 2 (review) on a Thursday.  The family-friendly action comedy was guaranteed to have a somewhat soft opening day due to the majority of kids being in school until this evening.  And so it is the case that the terrific sequel took in a moderate $5.8 million on its first day.  Of course, Dreamworks has some history with this kind of thing.  If you recall, Dreamworks opened Shrek 2 on a Wednesday back in May 2004.  It had two relatively soft days $11.7 million and $9.1 million heading into the Fri-Sun weekend (I remember thinking the film was doomed as it was opening about on the level of Pokemon: The First Movie).  It absolutely exploded over the normal weekend, earning an eye-popping $28 million on Friday, $44 million on Saturday (the biggest single day in history at the time), and $34 million on Sunday (the biggest Sunday gross ever at the time).  So it was a $129 million five-day weekend, with $108 million of that just over Friday through Sunday.  That's also an 11x five-day weekend multiplier. In  research, that's called 'that outlier that you throw out'... until today.  Anyway, Dreamworks is obviously hoping for an even larger multiplier, as yesterday is sure to be the film's lowest box office day by a healthy margin.  Just for fun, let's say the film does an average of $20 million per day over the next four days (a reasonable assumption, the first film opened to $60 million over three days).  That gives the film a $86 million five-day opening and a 14x weekend multiplier.  This one is an even bigger question mark than The Hangover II, but it can be presumed that Dreamworks bet that most of the audience (IE - families) were just waiting for the weekend to check out the animated sequel.  Which, considering the lesson of Shrek 2 (which would have easily crushed the 3-day opening weekend record had it opened on a Friday), makes one wonder why they went for the Thursday opening at all?

Scott Mendelson        

The Hangover II scores $31.7 million on opening day. It looks like a $102-127 million five-day weekend.

The Hangover part II (review) grossed $31.7 million yesterday, scoring the third-biggest Thursday numbers in history.  The only bigger Thursday grosses were The Matrix Reloaded ($42 million, including $5 million in Wednesday evening sneaks) and Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith ($50 million).  It's also the third-biggest R-rated single day, behind that $42 million opening day for The Matrix Reloaded and the $34 million Saturday for The Matrix Reloaded.  The picture did 32% of its total first day business at midnight.  The closest comparison of late indeed Paranormal Activity 2, which did 31% of its first day total ($20.1 million) in midnight screenings.  As far as the rest of the five-day weekend, it will arguably fall somewhere between the 3.2x multiplier of Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen (which would give The Hangover 2 $102 million over five-days) and the 6x weekend multiplier of Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (which would give the sequel an unlikely $186 million five-day total).  Relative disaster would be a multiplier equal to Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (2.72x = $86 million). The more likely result will be something similar to The Matrix Revolutions's 3.44x weekend multiplier (which would give The Hangover II $109 million) and the 4.02x multiplier for Superman Returns (which would equal $127 million over the holiday weekend).  This is all just fun with math for the moment, and we'll have a pretty good idea of the end result by this evening or tomorrow.

Scott Mendelson  

The Muppets gets a Hangover-inspired second teaser.

As excited as I am for this film in theory, I am a little disconcerted by how Jason Segal and Amy Adams seem to be dominating the footage thus far.  Point being, it's a MUPPET MOVIE, not a Segal/Adams vehicle.  Anyway, this is an obvious but amusing riff on The Hangover, and the cameo at 0:50 merits a solid laugh.

Scott Mendelson  

The Hangover part II scores $10.4 million in midnight screenings. What does it mean for the long weekend?

Well, The Hangover part II has smashed at least one record.  With $10.4 million in midnight screenings alone, it nearly doubled the $6.3 million earned in midnight screenings for Paranormal Activity 2 last October, breaking the record for R-rated midnight showings.  But as with that horror sequel, midnight front-loading may be a little higher than usual, since the film is arguably more suited for a midnight screening environment than something more mainstream like Thor.  The Hangover part II is also a heavily-anticipated sequel, so it may play like a front-loaded genre sequel more than a general-audiences smash.  So, with that being said, let's use what little math we have in this area.  The closest precedent is the five-day opening weekend of Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen.  That film pulled in $16 million worth of midnight tickets and ended up with a $200 million five-day total.  Thus, the film did 8% of its five-day business at midnight and 25% of its opening day at 12:01am.  A similar pattern would yield a $41 million opening day and a $130 million five-day total.  That's the likely best case scenario, but Hangover II won't have the benefit of family-friendly matinée business, especially with Kung Fu Panda 2 also opening today.  The worst case scenario would be something resembling the uber-front-loaded performance Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince. The sixth Harry Potter film scored $22 million worth of midnight showings (a record at the time) and ended its five-day opening with $158 million.  That means the film did nearly 14% of its entire five-day weekend on Wednesday at 12:01am showings.  Such a scenario would give The Hangover II a $28 million opening day and a $75 million five-day total.  We'll know more once the Thursday numbers come in.

Scott Mendelson

Alan Rickman says goodbye to the world of Harry Potter...

This kinda speaks for itself (we'll forgive the massive run-on sentence in the middle).  I will merely add that it's amazing that Alan Rickman eventually found himself with a role more iconic than Hans Gruber.

Review: The Hangover part II (2011) teases darkness before reverting to formula.

The Hangover part II
2011
102 minutes
rated R

by Scott Mendelson

The biggest problem with The Hangover part II is not that it is a general retread of the first film.  After all, while we might have been spoiled by a decade full of part 2s that were not so much a sequel as a second chapter to a large continuing story, prior to 2001 (IE - Harry Potter and Lord of the Rings), it was not uncommon for a sequel to merely be a glorified remake of the first picture.  Sometimes it worked (Terminator 2: Judgment Day), sometimes it did not (Home Alone 2: Lost in New York).  The problem with The Hangover part II is that it's an EXPLICIT retread of the first film, hitting most of the same comic bits and character interactions but with neither the inventiveness of the first film nor the guts to go further with the premise.