A place at the table: Patty Jenkins (Monster) to direct Thor 2. Why it matters.

Variety has apparently confirmed that Marvel Studios is indeed in talks with Patty Jenkins to replace departing Kenneth Branagh in directing Thor 2, which is due for release on July 26th, 2013.  I generally don't comment on news about who is 'in talks' or who is 'on the wish-list', but Patty Jenkins inclusion on this specific wishlist is worth commenting on.  Jenkins is best known for having helmed Monster, which won Charlize Theron a Best Actress Oscar in 2003 for her portrayal of serial killer Aileen Wuornos.  Since that triumph, she has unfortunately been relegated to directing occasional episodes of television, most recently helming the pilot for the AMC series The Killing.  This is a pleasantly out-of-left field choice that plays to Marvel's greatest strength as a studio, picking talented filmmakers who aren't necessarily known for comic book spectacle and/or aren't 'the hip new flavor of the month'.  While much of the coverage will focus on 'YAY, Marvel is possibly hiring the first-ever woman to direct one of its superhero movies!', there are two things worth noting.  First of all, Lexi Aexander, who directed Punisher: War Zone in 2008 (review) is also of the female persuasion.  Second of all, the lack of credits on Jenkins's IMDB page brings up a troubling double-standard.  Had a male, arguably any male, directed a critically-acclaimed and Oscar-winning drama like Monster, they surely would have been on every studio's wishlist for every major project (see Hopper, Tom or Forrester, Marc).  But, Jenkins has barely worked in the last eight years.

Is Richard Lester available? Disney and Marvel press ahead with Thor 2 for summer 2013, without director Kenneth Branagh.

Well, it looks like summer 2013 is the one where we find out how much the Marvel franchises truly depend on their would-be auteurs.  The summer will kick off with Iron Man 3 (directed not by Jon Favreau but by Shane Black) opens on the same first-weekend in May slot the previous two have debuted in.  And Disney announced today that Thor 2 is scheduled for July 26th, 2013.  The big news is that while star Chris Hemsworth will be back, original helmer Kenneth Branagh will not (Natalie Portman is contracted for a sequel, but we'll see if she makes the choice to return).  This is a surprise to say the least.  This is not a case like the Iron Man franchise, where Jon Favreau butted heads with Marvel throughout the sequel and decided to quit at two.  This isn't a case like Green Lantern, where Martin Campbell found himself a bit over his head with the whole green-screen/CGI action department and will probably fall on the sword for the movie's poor box office (Warner Bros' new habit of micromanaging didn't help either).  Thor withstood a weak marketing campaign and ended up with a rock-solid $437 million worldwide, earning relatively solid reviews in the process.  I don't wish to speculate and will only say that I hope that Branagh's choice to move on was merely a case of not wanting to get tied to the franchise, and not another case of penny-pinching by Marvel or some kind of corporate decision by Disney (which takes over the previously-Paramount owned Marvel films after Captain America).  Anyone want to offer suggestions or guess the release date?  As for replacement directors, it's the same list I always have: Sophia Coppola, Werner Herzog, and Terrence Malick.

Scott Mendelson      

Thor grosses $25.7 million on opening Friday, looks headed for $65-72 million debut weekend.

It was pretty much a foregone conclusion once the midnight numbers were released, but Marvel's Thor has opened with a rock-solid $25.7 million for its first Friday. The film is polling at a 'B+' from Cinemascore, with an 'A' from audiences under 18. The film did about 12% of that from midnight showings, which is normal for such fare. Where it goes from here is an open question of course. Non-sequels that did the 12% of their Friday grosses on midnight or Thursday night (Avatar and Inception for example) had weekend multipliers of about 2.8x, which would give Thor a hearty $72 million. But even a slightly front-loaded 2.6x would give the picture $65 million, which still feels like the likely end result for the Fri-Sun period. The other two major openers, Something Borrowed and Jumping the Broom, opened with $4.8 million and $4.1 million respectively, so both should gross around $12 million for the weekend. More to come once the weekend numbers roll in (although my analysis may be a little later than usual, due to the whole Mother's Day celebrations and what-not).

Scott Mendelson

Thor grosses $3.25 million in midnight sneaks, appears headed towards $43-72 million for the weekend ($65 million sounds about right).

With pretty much every major summer tentpole doing the whole 'midnight screening' thing this season, it's going to be that much easier to predict the weekend even earlier. So with that, we can report that Marvel's Thor (review) has opened with $3.25 million in midnight sneaks last night. As I've written before, a film that goes wide at 12:01am generally makes between 5% and 6% of its opening-weekend take in midnight screenings. There are exceptions (Avatar and Fast Five pulled in around 4.5% of their Fri-Sun grosses in 12:01am screenings), but 5-7% seems to be a healthy average. So with that in mind, assuming that Thor is inexplicably front-loaded (unlikely as its not a sequel) and/or suffers from poor word of mouth (also unlikely, as the film is pretty fun and satisfying), let's assume that Thor does about 5% of its opening weekend grosses at midnight. That would give Thor a $65 million opening weekend take. Playing the averages, Thor could gross anywhere from $43 million (7.5% in midnight sneaks, or a likely worst-case scenario) to $72 million (a best-case scenario 4.5% in midnight sneaks). We'll know more when the Friday numbers come in, but for now, it looks like Paramount has pulled off another massive opening for a challenging franchise. For those who want a detailed look at the math regarding midnight screenings, go here.

Scott Mendelson

Review: Thor: A 3D IMAX Experience

Thor
2011
115 minutes
rated PG-13

by Scott Mendelson

Despite Marvel and Paramount's best marketing efforts to convince otherwise, Kenneth Branagh's Thor is a perfectly satisfactory piece of popcorn entertainment. It is cheerfully silly and openly operatic, but played out with absolute conviction. It is no great landmark in the realm of comic book films, but it is easily the best of the Marvel-financed films thus far released. It has larger than life action with human-scale emotions, and Branagh directs with an unexpected confidence that seeps through the finish product. It is no great piece of art nor defining statement of our times, but its good-natured pomp makes its obvious flaws almost endearing.