Midnight Box Office (05/19/11): Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides pulls in $4.7million in 12:01am showings. Weekend total $72-104 million.

It's time to do that pesky midnight math yet again.  Before the first matinees even start on the west coast, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides has pulled in $4.7 million in midnight screenings.  So, using the math that we've been playing around with for the last few weeks, let's see where we stand.  As I've written previously, midnight grosses generally make up around 4.5%-6.5% of the total weekend take.  So the best case scenario is a weekend take of $105 million.  But the question becomes just how anticipated and/or front loaded is this fourth installment of the series?  It stands to reason that the film is more front loaded than Fast Five (which pulled in about 4.5% of its take from midnights) being that its a sequel, but certainly less front loaded than The Dark Knight  (which pulled in 11% of its $158 million debut at 12:01am Thursday).  However, this number is less than the $7.5 million that Iron Man 2 pulled down in its midnight debut, totaling about 5.8% of its $128 million opening.  So let's say that Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides is about as front loaded as Thor (it's a sequel, but it's a less geek-skewing property than the Marvel Comics adventure), which puts the number at about 5%.  So, if the fourth film has already scored 5.5% of its weekend figure (word of mouth will likely be far worse than Thor or Fast Five), then the pirate adventure will pull down $85 million for the weekend.  So, the variable is between $72 and $104 million, with $85 million looking like the probable figure.  Okay, now I'm off to actually see the film in glorious 2D and review it.  Never thought I'd be able to accurately predict weekend box office before the opening day actually began...

Scott Mendelson

Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides gets a (slightly improved) final trailer.

We're two months out from start-date on this one, so Disney has unleashed a final and more plot-centric trailer. I know I've been bagging on this picture since the start, but I'm going to try to accentuate the positive for the moment. The trailer clearly lays out the journey (to find the fountain of youth) and the core character relationships, including the 'not Will Turner and not Elizabeth Swann' in the guise of a young sailer and the imperiled mermaid he falls for (Sam Cleflin and Gemma Ward). I wouldn't be surprised to see some TV spots that highlight these two above Sparrow and the gang, and the trailer earns major points for not being all-Jack Sparrow for the entire 2.25 minutes. The action does look refreshingly practical and the scale seems to be a decent mix of epic adventure and boots-on-the-ground plausibility. So even if the film seems to lack the grand ambitions of Gore Verbinski's original trilogy, one can hope that it will still be a solid good time. But, it must be said, the trailer loses a point or two for repeating the phrase 'fountain of youth' as if its a new vocabulary word. Still, this one will surely hit pretty huge on May 20th. While I theoretically could get into an early press screening, I may just wait until opening night as it falls on 'preschool babysitting night'. Should I choose that route, I shall be faced with a difficult decision. I don't care much for live-action 3D, but I do so love IMAX. Decisions, decisions...

Scott Mendelson