Avengers box office: $18.9m on Monday, for a $226m four-day US total. Oh, and $700m worldwide thus far.

There is little doubt that The Avengers will join the $1 billion mark at the global box office, the only question being whether it will do so this weekend or next weekend.  With $700 million in the global can in 13 days, the film is the second-fastest grossing blockbuster of all-time so far (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part II earned $700 million in ten days of global release and $800 million in 12 days).  It's way too soon to start tossing off comparisons invoking James Cameron, although I'd argue that a final global tally above Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part II ($1.3 billion) is a sure thing at this point.  So for the moment, let's concentrate on the domestic front.  After a stunning $207 million over its first three days, The Avengers grossed $18.9 million on Monday.  That brings the film to a four-day total of $226 million, which is not only the highest four-day tally of all-time but exceeds the record six-day $224 million gross of The Dark Knight four years ago.  The film has the eighth-biggest Monday gross of all-time (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part II earned $18.1 million on its first Monday, natch).  The higher numbers were Spider-Man 2 ($27 million), Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull ($26 million), Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End ($25 million), The Dark Knight ($24 million), Shrek 2 ($23 million), X-Men: The Last Stand ($20 million), and Avatar ($19 million). Most of the other films higher on the list had first or (in the case of Avatar and Shrek 2) second Mondays that were part of a holiday weekend, be it Memorial Day, Independence Day, or the Christmas/New Year portion where everyone is off of school.  Among Mondays where nobody gets off school or work, it *is* the biggest Monday gross of all-time. Among non-holiday Mondays, The Dark Knight had a better fourth day of $24 million, but that was in the middle of the summer.  But what this does mean is that The Avengers may have to settle for a $270-275 million full-week total (horrors, I know) as opposed to the pie-in-the-sky $300 million Friday-to-Thursday gross had it pulled in Dark Knight-level weekday grosses.  That's all for now.

Scott Mendelson    

Titanic 3D opens with $4.3 million, sails towards likely $20-$25m 5-day total.

The much-hyped 3D-release of James Cameron's Titanic debuted yesterday with a solid $4.3 million.  What's left to do now is merely play with the numbers to estimate where the five-day opening weekend for this 3D release will end come Sunday.  The wild-card for the weekend is that tomorrow is Good Friday, which means that many kids will be out of school for at least part of the day.  On the other hand, Easter Sunday means that families will be spending the day together, and even if a trip to the movies is in order, I can't imagine the entire family agreeing to a 3.5-hour emotionally-draining tragedy that most people own on DVD being the likely pick, especially as families with small children are less likely to shell out for the 3D upgrade.  Anyway, let's presume that Easter Sunday cancels out Good Friday and call it even.

Kung Fu Panda 2 plays the Shrek 2 game, scores $5.8 million opening day. Come what may, we should see a record weekend multiplier.

Paramount and Dreamworks took a big risk opening Kung Fu Panda 2 (review) on a Thursday.  The family-friendly action comedy was guaranteed to have a somewhat soft opening day due to the majority of kids being in school until this evening.  And so it is the case that the terrific sequel took in a moderate $5.8 million on its first day.  Of course, Dreamworks has some history with this kind of thing.  If you recall, Dreamworks opened Shrek 2 on a Wednesday back in May 2004.  It had two relatively soft days $11.7 million and $9.1 million heading into the Fri-Sun weekend (I remember thinking the film was doomed as it was opening about on the level of Pokemon: The First Movie).  It absolutely exploded over the normal weekend, earning an eye-popping $28 million on Friday, $44 million on Saturday (the biggest single day in history at the time), and $34 million on Sunday (the biggest Sunday gross ever at the time).  So it was a $129 million five-day weekend, with $108 million of that just over Friday through Sunday.  That's also an 11x five-day weekend multiplier. In  research, that's called 'that outlier that you throw out'... until today.  Anyway, Dreamworks is obviously hoping for an even larger multiplier, as yesterday is sure to be the film's lowest box office day by a healthy margin.  Just for fun, let's say the film does an average of $20 million per day over the next four days (a reasonable assumption, the first film opened to $60 million over three days).  That gives the film a $86 million five-day opening and a 14x weekend multiplier.  This one is an even bigger question mark than The Hangover II, but it can be presumed that Dreamworks bet that most of the audience (IE - families) were just waiting for the weekend to check out the animated sequel.  Which, considering the lesson of Shrek 2 (which would have easily crushed the 3-day opening weekend record had it opened on a Friday), makes one wonder why they went for the Thursday opening at all?

Scott Mendelson        

Random footnote as we head into the opening weekend for Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides.

For what it's worth, the $114.7 million Fri-Sun opening for the Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End still holds the record for the biggest Fri-Sun opening for a film with a long weekend. It did $25 million on Memorial Day Monday and $13 million worth of 8pm-12am Thursday sneaks.  It actually did $153 million in its first 4.25 days.  Out of eighteen the films that have pulled down $100m Fri-Sun weekends (seventeen if you don't count Iron Man, which had $3.5 million worth of advance-night Thursday screenings for its $102 million 3.25 day total), only eleven of them actually came from standalone Fri-Sun three day weekends.  Six of them (a third) pulled in $100 million despite having extra opened days to pull moviegoers away from the Fri-Sun prime real estate.  For the record, they are the above-mentioned Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End ($114.7m Fri-Sun/$153m 4.25 day total), Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen ($108.9m/$200m 5-day total), Star Wars: Episode III: Revenge of the Sith ($108.4m/$158.4m 4-day total), Shrek 2 ($108m/$128.9 5-day total), X-Men: The Last Stand ($102.7m/$122.8m 4-day total), and Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull ($100.1m/$151.9m 5-day total).  I have no real wisdom to offer here, I just wanted to play around with the numbers.

Scott Mendelson

There as no slump then, there is no slump now! Why comparing cumulative weekend box office makes no sense and hurts our desire for better movies.

Brandon Grey at Box Office Mojo called the weekend box office 'listless'. Nikkie Finke at Deadline Hollywood called it 'a soft weekend'. And Brent Lang of The Wrap called it 'sluggish'. 'Weak' was the word as three mid-to-low budget films opened with both solid reviews and decent box office. Also on everyone's mind was the fact that this weekend was down this year by about 10% compared to this weekend in 2010. We've been hearing that talk quite a bit this year, as each weekend is considered a quasi-disaster because it didn't equal or surpass the respective weekend from last year. There is a reason I never discuss how well a respective weekend performed compared to the same weekend last year or the year before. It's irrelevant. Every year brings different movies and those movies perform in vastly different ways from the year before or the year after. More importantly, it feeds into the absurd 'this year must be BIGGER' mentality, even if the product doesn't justify that. Want to know why this year's first few months have been down compared to last year? A) Avatar and B) Alice in Wonderland.