2011 year-end wrap-up part II: The Overrated.

 This is the second of several year-end wrap essays detailing the year in film.  This time, we're dealing with 'overrated' films.  Here is the hardest one to write, merely because it's simply a list pointing out why ten films you all loved are actually either not-that-great or actually pretty terrible.  Most are what I would consider 'bad movies' that are being hailed elsewhere as greats, while a few are merely mediocre movies that are inexplicably being given a critical pass in most circles.  Again, if you've been reading me this year you'll probably be able to guess a few of these.  As always, these will be in alphabetical order. 

Weekend Box Office (12/04/11): With no new wide-releases, Twilight tops, Muppets drop, and smaller films (Shame, Descendants, Artist) take center stage.

As is sometimes the case with the post-Thanksgiving weekend, studios did not offer up a single new wide release.  While that's understandable considering the customary huge drops that the holdovers take this weekend, it's frustrating this year considering the sheer amount of product being released over the last ten days of the year (does Summit really expect The Darkest Hour to strike huge over Christmas weekend?).  Anyway, to the surprise of some (including me), a larger-than-expected drop for The Muppets allowed Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn part I to top the box office for the third weekend in a row.  The fourth film in the saga grossed $16.9 million, for a drop of 60% and a cume of $247 million.  While it's still trailing the respective end-of-third weekend totals of New Moon ($267 million) and Eclipse ($255 million), it had the largest third weekend of the franchise and a slightly smaller drop than New Moon (which tumbled 64% in weekend three for a $15 million weekend).  So while it still may end up trailing the last two pictures, it has a fighting chance to end up awfully close to the $295-300 million range of the prior sequels.  It's also just ahead of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part I, which had $244 million at this point and eventually crawled to $295 million.

Weekend Box Office (11/27/11): Breaking Dawn part I tops Thanksgiving weekend, while Muppets shines in family film pile-up and limited debuts score.

 As expected, Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn part I (essay) topped the holiday weekend box office as three new family films (including The Muppets) and three limited releases more-or-less cannibalized each other.  The big opener of the weekend was The Muppets (review).  All eyes were watching this much-hyped franchise revival, and the fans did not let Kermit and company down.  The picture, which Disney wisely spent just $45 million to produce, grossed $29.5 million on Fri-Sun and $42 million over its five-day opening.  The film (deservedly) scored an A from Cinemascore, although I don't know the demo stats yet (IE - did kids actually choose to see it and/or like it, or were the jerks dragged by their parents?).  As it is, the film is already the second biggest grossing Muppet movie of all time, out of seven, coming in under the $65 million gross of The Muppet Movie back in 1979.  Inflation-wise, The Muppets will have to gross $90 million to achieve that rank, although surpassing the adjusted-for-inflation $206 million gross of The Muppet Movie is pretty unlikely.  In even better (if arbitrary) news, the utter lack of any wide releases next weekend plus the likely downward plunge for Breaking Dawn part I means that The Muppets will likely top the box office next weekend.  So there clearly is an audience for this 35-year old franchise, all Disney has to do now is not overestimate their appeal.  Point being, if Disney decides to make a film sequel (as opposed to a new TV series or what-have-you), they shouldn't be spending $100 million on it.

Oscar Speculation - Last but not least - Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close wants to be the Million Dollar Baby (or the John Kerry) of the 2011 Oscar race.

There was much speculation over the last couple of days over Warner Bros' decision not to make sure that Stephen Daldry's 9/11 drama Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close in time for the first batch of critics' awards.  The first official screening will be December 2nd (no, I probably won't be attending that early), which means that the Tom Hanks/Sandra Bullock drama won't be eligible for consideration for the National Board of Review or the New York Film Critics Circle, both of which are so consumed with being 'the first' to announce their year-end plaudits that they aren't even waiting until the last month of the year.  The rumblings run the gamut from 'it won't be done in time' to 'it's not that good' to 'we want to capitalize on positive audience word of mouth'.  All or none of those could be true.  But I think that Warner Bros. is playing a slightly different game.

Male-driven dramas are Oscar-bait, female-driven dramas are Lifetime movies? Are male-driven melodramas given more weight than female-driven ones?

I'd like to toss out a random thought for discussion... I really liked The Descendants.  It's a very good drama with fine performances all-around.  It arguably deserves its status as an Oscar front-runner.  But let's discuss something for a moment.  If the film revolved around an aging woman who grapples with bonding with her daughters after her unfaithful husband goes into a coma, would we still be talking about its likely Oscar victories? Would it be considered an automatic Oscar contender or would it have to fight perceptions that it was a glorified Lifetime movie?  If the film centered not around George Clooney's husband/father, but rather Shailene Woodley's suffering older daughter, would the film still be considered 'prestigious' enough to be crowned an Oscar contender before most critics/press even saw it?

Weekend Box Office (11/20/11): Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn scores 5th-biggest debut, while Happy Feet Two fails and Descendants scores in limited debut.

It is weird that I have so little to offer on a weekend when a film earned the fifth-biggest debut in US history, as well as the tenth-biggest worldwide bow.  But the Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn part I (essay) had an opening weekend that is so perfectly in line with the franchise, that it is not only unexpected, but leaves us with little doubt in regards to how the film will fare in the long haul.  For the record, Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn part I (trailer and teaser) opened with $139.5 million this weekend, $30 million of which came purely on Thursday midnight showings.  That's just shy of the $142 million debut of Twilight Saga: New Moon on this same weekend two years ago.  With a 1.93x weekend multiplier film was slightly more front-loaded than the first sequel (they both had $72 million opening Fridays), but less so than the original Twilight.  The original, with its $35 million opening day and $69 million opening weekend, opened with a 1.97x weekend multiplier this weekend three years ago).  The third film, Eclipse, opened on a Wednesday over the Independence Day holiday of 2010, which makes comparisons difficult.  The film played 80% female, 60% over-21, and earned a B+ from Cinemascore.

Review: Oscar hopes aside, The Descendants (2011) is one of the year's best films.

The Descendants
2011
115 minutes
rated R

by Scott Mendelson

The problem with the movies that are released this time of year is that they are examined in terms of their Oscar potential first and their quality as a film second.  Thus, upon viewing, we often have to remind ourselves to actually watch and critique the movie we are watching, rather than mentally dissecting whether or not it has the 'right stuff' to take home Oscar gold.  I don't know how well Alexander Payne's The Descendants is going to fare in the various year-end awards races.  It is currently among the front-runners, but as Heath Ledger and David Fincher could tell you, it's all about who is in the lead when the race stops.  But putting that aside, let me state that The Descendants actually deserves to be discussed as a front runner.  Not because of its pedigree, its release date, or its Oscar-friendly narrative, but because it is indeed one of the best films of 2011.

Weekend Box Office (10/16/11): Real Steel tops Footloose remake, Thing prequel.

 In a somewhat surprising turn, Real Steel (review) repeated at the top of the box office, defeating a Footloose remake and a prequel to The Thing.  As always, it's not about the ranking but about the numbers themselves.  So it appears that audiences do want SOME originality in their mainstream film-making, even if its merely choosing a shameless rip-off of other movies over a pure remake.  Anyway, Real Steel cashed in on its solid audience word-of-mouth and its kid-appeal to earn $16.2 million in its second weekend.  That's a drop of just 40%, which in this day-and-age qualifies as leggy for a major genre entry. The film, which allegedly cost either $80 million or $140 million (I believe the former), has now grossed $51 million.  It's not going to be an uber-smash without a few more holds like this weekend, but it now has an outside chance at reaching $100 million domestic, with similar-or-better results to follow overseas.  Point being, it's actually a decent movie, putting its admittedly generic but effective father/son drama before robot-fighting spectacle, which at least partially explains the strong hold this weekend.

As Film District gets sued over a 'misleading' Drive trailer, here are five more classic previews that mastered the art of the false-sell.

I'm sure you've heard by now (first spread by The Hot Blog and Movies.com) about the woman in Detroit, Michigan who is suing Film District over what she felt was a misleading trailer for the Ryan Gosling vehicle Drive (review). Basically, she feels that the film was sold as an action-packed variation on The Fast and the Furious but instead delivering a well, I'm guessing most of you reading this have seen the movie or at least know enough about it to fill in the blanks (my additional thoughts).  The lawsuit has the added spice of accusing the film of anti-semitism, I suppose because both of the villains were Jewish (as a Jewish film fan, I'm all for more Jewish bad guys).  While we may agree that the trailer was a little misleading, it is just a part of a longtime pattern of selling somewhat artier films as if they were just normal mainstream genre entries.  But you already knew that.  Actually, the trailer's biggest sin was blatantly revealing the entire movie (including nearly every action moment) in nearly chronological order, but that's another story.  So in honor of this relatively absurd lawsuit (long-story short - there were no real damages behind the movie ticket and no real pain/suffering to merit additional monetary reward), let's take a stroll down memory lane at some classic examples of film-marketing misdirection.

Weekend Box Office (10/09/11): Real Steel wins over the kids and wins the weekend with $27 million, while Ides of March does the 'Clooney average'.

There were two major releases this weekend, and both of them more-or-less did what was expected of them.  Disney/Dreamworks unleashed the robot-boxing/father-son drama Real Steel, which easily topped the weekend.  Of course, as always, ranking is irrelevant except for their use in second-week ads, so the real question is whether or not its $27.3 million debut is a good number.  First of all, the film scored a solid A from Cinemascore, with an A+ from audiences under 25 (which again, only means something if it opens well in the first place).  Second of all, the film indeed did play like a family film, with an $8.5 million Friday giving way to a solid 3.2x weekend multiplier (family films generally see a boost on Saturday as the kids flood the matinees). The weekend multiplier and audience polling could mean that the Hugh Jackman film will have decent legs as the family film of choice until Puss In Boots opens on October 28th (yes, by moving the film one week up, Dreamworks Animation/Paramount has potentially hurt Dreamworks/Disney).  As for whether or not the film is a hit at this point (check out the movie that it seems to oddly resemble HERE), that depends on who you ask about the film's budget.

American, Machete, Going the Distance square off over Labor Day Weekend. Weekend Box Office (09/04/010).

Despite stupidly opening on a Wednesday (and siphoning off $3 million before the traditional opening weekend), The American grossed a completely predictable $13.1 million over three days and $16.6 million over the four-day holiday. This is no less than the ninth George Clooney vehicle to open to around $11-13 million since The Peacemaker in 1997. And, as I've written before, every time this happens, the pundits jump up and down about how Clooney may not be a real movie star. As I've also said before, true stardom is when it's just your face on the poster, especially when you're selling a somewhat uncommercial bit of cinema. That was certainly the case with The American, which is a slow and ponderous European-style thriller, with only just enough action to fill up the third act of a trailer (film-goers felt duped, as the film received a D- from Cinemascore). The fact that it will end up with $19.6 million between Wednesday and Monday is a testament to Clooney's sheer constancy as an opener for relatively cheap (the film cost Focus Features just $20 million) and arty projects. For what it's worth, if you know what you're getting into, the film is a relatively satisfying character-driven tone poem. It's a B-movie classed up and pruned down to resemble an art film.