See it early? See it at midnight? See it on DVD? On how we see movies and how those choices affect our critical analysis.

The word leaking out from last weekend's screening of next month's Evil Dead remake is generally positive, with tepid enthusiasm blending in with absolutely insane raves and foaming-at-the-mouth excitement.  Of course, there was equal amounts of chatter that the venue for this premiere, a packed crowd of demographically perfect horror junkies on opening night of the SXSW Film Festival, had something to do with the uber-positive reception. I can't imagine a more receptive audience than the one that saw the picture in Austin last weekend and I can't imagine the frenzied anticipation and the whole 'I saw it first!' mentality didn't affect the reception. I had a chance to see Oz: The Great and Powerful at the All Media screening on Monday night but passed because I knew my kid might want to see it and I didn't want to keep her up until 10:30pm on a school night. So I waited until Friday. I bought two tickets to a 2D 7:15pm showing and picked up my kid from school acccordingly.  She liked the movie, and the packed audience went nuts for it too.  I'd be lying if the circumstances of said viewing didn't perhaps allow me to paper over the film's very obvious storytelling issues. I got to see a big event movie on opening night with a packed audience with my excited daughter in tow, which for a film nerd like myself is the very definition of having your cake and eating it too.

Weekend Box Office (12/16/12): The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey opens with an expected (and record) $84 million.

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (review/teaser/trailer) basically opened like a Lord of the Rings film, give or take various variables.  Its $84.7 million estimated debut clobbered the December record, which is the $77 million earned by Avatar ($77 million, $80 million adjusted for inflation) and I Am Legend ($77.2 million, $89 million adjusted for inflation) in 2009 and 2007 respectively.  It soundly thumps the various other Lord of the Rings films, but this is where it gets tricky.  The prior Peter Jackson Middle Earth pictures opened on the weekend before Christmas week, which I've long argued is the best weekend of the year to open your picture.  So the fact that The Hobbit opened a week earlier makes this number a little more impressive, although the pre-Christmas weekend is more about legs than opening weekend.  On the other hand, the prior films all opened on a Wednesday, meaning that their would-be opening weekend was spread out of five days.  And of course, we have to take into account nine years of inflation and the whole 3D/IMAX price bump. So purely looking at inflation and comparing the Fri-Sun portion, this opening is about on par with The Two Towers ($62 million, but $84 million adjusted for inflation) and well ahead of Fellowship of the Ring's ($72 million, but adjusted-for-inflation $66 million) and King Kong ($50 million, and $62 million adjusted for inflation) for what that's worth. It's a bit behind the $72 million/$95 million opening of The Return of the King.  

Weekend Box Office (12-09-12): Playing For Keeps bombs as the moviegoing world awaits the Christmas rush.

The decision by Warner Bros. to move The Gangster Squad (trailer) to January, 2013 and Universal's choice to move Les Miserables from next weekend to Christmas day should have caused a giant game of musical chairs.  It didn't, and now we have the second December weekend in a row (with one more to come) with just a single new release).  Meanwhile the last two weekends of the year are going to be jam-packed with major films (Jack Reacher, This Is Forty, DJango Unchained, The Guilt Trip, etc.), all of which could have *easily* topped the box office and/or dominated the competition had they opened this weekend or last weekend.  But weekends that are barren of new releases save for a Gerald Butler vehicle tend to be very boring box office weekends indeed.

Weekend Box Office (12-02-12): Killing Them Softly stumbles as holdovers dominate.

The post-Thanksgiving weekend is among the worst frames of the year for movie going.  With the exception of Tom Cruise's The Last Samurai back in 2003 and Behind Enemy Lines back in 2001, I can't think of a single wide release major movie that broke out over this specific weekend (feel free to jog my memory in the comments section).  So the fact that there were only two low-profile openers isn't a surprise, nor is it a surprise that neither film opened all that well.  The top opener of the weekend was Andrew Dominik's Killing Them Softly (review/trailer).  The well reviewed crime drama/political parable earned just $7 million over the weekend, which makes it Brad Pitt's worst wide release live-action opening since before he became a movie star (IE - Interview With the Vampire in 1994) The film was originally slotted to open in October before getting tossed into this early December death slot.  Among the many would-be Oscar bait films coming from the Weinstein Company, this one sadly got lost in the shuffle.  In September it was all about The Master and now it's about expanding The Silver Linings Playbook (a solid $3.3 million this weekend on 371 screens) and prepping for the Christmas Day release of Django Unchained.  The inexplicably received an "F" from Cinemascore, which is odd as the film was seen by such a small number of people that you'd presume those who went knew what they were getting into.  Anyway, at least the Weinstein Company released the film wide, meaning that those who wanted to see it got to see it.  Costing just $15 million, it's already made that much overseas and should break even once domestic receipts are tabulated.  Call this one a win for art over commerce.

Weekend Box Office: Rise of the Guardians stumbles as most everything else (Life of Pi, Red Dawn, etc.) flies.

As I wrote yesterday, this weekend was a perfect example of the issue with reporting cumulative box office as if it means anything.  Yes it was the biggest Thanksgiving weekend on record ($295 million total over the five days), but such a thing tends to happen when you have three strong holdovers and three relatively strong new releases in one frame.  As always, it's the movies.  More importantly, total weekend box office success is only important if your film is among the ones doing well.  

Dreamworks' Rise of the Guardians basically flopped.  There's really no nice way to say it.  In five days, the $145 million animated film earned $32.6 million while earning just $24 million over Fri-Sun.  As I mentioned yesterday, this is the lowest opening weekend, by a very large margin, for Dreamworks Animation since Flushed Away back in Fall 2006 ($18 million).  Even the film's five-day total ($32.6 million) puts it as the lowest comparative three-day opening weekend since 2006 and their 17th lowest total out of 25 films.  The reasoning for this actually pretty simple.  The film didn't look very visually appealing, the marketing didn't promise anything beyond a painfully generic story (both sadly true about the film itself), and the campaign was based upon the idea that having three holiday icons that everyone knew (Santa, Tooth Fairy, Easter Bunny) and two that were far less well-known in pop culture (Jack Frost and the Sand Man) engaging in a riff on the first X-Men picture was automatically appealing. It wasn't, and with Lincoln and Skyfall winning out as consensus choices for large families, and with Life of Pi  coming out far stronger than expected as a family film choice, plus the still-strong Wreck It Ralph ($149 million thus far, making a go at Tarzan's $171 million finish), Rise of the Guardians just couldn't muscle out of the pack.

Reason 4,325 why cumulative box office is a stupid statistic...

If you've read this site for any length of time, you've heard me claim about the constant reporting of what's basically called cumulative box office.  Cumulative box office is basically the total weekend box office of all films currently in theaters.  It's the kind of statistic that presumes that box office is a team sport, rather than a solo enterprise.  It's the stat that led to the whole 'great movie-going slump' of 2005, wherein various box office pundits screamed that movie going was doomed because the cumulative weekends were down from the same respective weekends in 2004, never mind that different movies were being released in summer 2005 compared to summer 2004.  Since then we've had any number of 'slumps!', usually during periods when we had more smaller, lower-budget films instead of non-stop tent poles every weekend.  This weekend  we're going to hear a lot of talk about how this Thanksgiving is the biggest Thanksgiving ever by around $20 million.  That's terrific news for the industry I suppose, especially if you're the part of the industry releasing The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn 2 or Skyfall.  But if you're the part of the industry that's releasing Rise of the Guardians, you're probably not having a very good Thanksgiving.

A rediscovered joy: Why Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn part 2 was one of the best movie-going experiences in years...

It's probably my favorite movie-going moment of 2012. There is a scene towards the end of the final Twilight Saga picture (vague spoilers...) where two sets of enemies meet on a snow covered hill, both prepared to do battle if necessary. At one point, one of those on the side of the Cullens charges towards the head of the evil Volturi clan (Michael Sheen) as the fiendish leader stands his ground. Without going into spoiler details, the two foes meet and briefly skirmish in mid-air, before both sides crash to the ground. One of them stands tall and smirks as we realize that (highlight to reveal) Aro is holding the detached head of a major character in his hands. At which point, the audience absolutely exploded with horror and tittering shock, blowing the walls off the auditorium with a deafening shriek and following it with nervous giggling (this was *not* how it happened in the book and the audience now knew all bets were off). At which point, I smiled even wider, impressed both by the apparent chutzpah on display and the audience's reaction, and said to myself "This* is why I go to the movies!".

Midnight box office: Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn 2 earns $30.4 million in Thursday 10pm and 12:01am showings.

The bad thing about the incredibly consistency of The Twilight Saga is how little there is to add when the box office numbers come rolling in.  This fifth and final installment racked up another $30.4 million in midnight and Thursday 10pm showings.  Now on one hand, it's right in line with the $30.25 million that Breaking Dawn part I earned at midnight and the $30.1 million that Eclipse snagged 2.5 years ago at midnight.  It's also a token uptick from the $26 million that New Moon earned at 12:01am this weekend back in 2009.  On the other hand, one has to wonder what effect the 10pm showings had on the figures.  It would seem that they had little effect, as there weren't too many people such as myself who are too old to do midnight showings but can handle a 10pm screening.  Anyway, what this means is that we may not be seeing much of a 'series finale' uptick as might have been expected.  Point being, we're looking at a debut between $138 million and $166 million, depending on if it was as frontloaded as Breaking Dawn part I (likely - 21% of the weekend gross at midnight) vs. New Moon (unlikely, - 18% of the weekend gross at midnight - save for potential repeat viewing over the weekend by uber hardcore fans).  Of course, presuming there is no finale bump and the film is even more frontloaded, then we're looking at 23% of the gross already accounted for with around $132 million for the weekend.  If it ends up as frontloaded as Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part II (25% of its weekend at midnight), then Twilight 5 ends the weekend with $121 million.  No matter where it lands in this spectrum, The Twilight Saga goes out with its financial head held high.

Scott Mendelson

Review: The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn part II (2012) finishes the franchise on a relative high note.

The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn part 2
2012
110 minutes
rated PG-13

by Scott Mendelson

As a would-be series finale, the biggest problem with Breaking Dawn part 2 is that  it really doesn't feel like the end of anything, nor does it feel like a natural stopping point.  This is not a finale in the vein of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part II, where the series-long conflict is brought to a definitive end and the characters end in places from which they can not go back.  Nor is it akin to Back to the Future III, which attempts to bring its narrative full-circle and finish the specific story that it has been telling while leaving the door open for more adventures down the line.  The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn part 2 basically plays like just another chapter in the lives of its main characters, one that qualifies as the end purely because the author of the original novels, Stephenie Myer, decided to stop.  The story does continue the adventures of Bella, Jacob, and the Cullen vampire clan, offering a completely new conflict at the end of its first act purely to actually have a conflict at all.  Obviously this is a source material problem, but don't expect the 'this is the end!' goosebumps that you got during the opening reels of Return of the King.  As merely a Twilight film, it's not half-bad.  If only by default, it's the best Twilight sequel and comes the closest to the irreverent shaggy dog charm of Catherine Hardwicke's original installment.

Release date musical chairs: How to fix the upcoming November/December clusterf**k...

I mentioned this briefly last night, but taking a look at the release date calendar of the last two months of the year, it is clear that something is quite amiss.  It's not just a matter of too many movies being released at the end of the year, nor even a matter of too many "Oscar bait" pictures drowning each other out as is sometimes the case.  No, when you look at the release calendar for November and December, you notice an odd pattern.  There are nine weeks in the last two months of the year, during which we have a total of twenty-one (21) wide releases, counting the November 16th expansion of Spielberg's Lincoln.  Now you might think "Oh, that's about two per week, that's not so bad".  But the problem is the scheduling itself.  There are five of those nine weeks with just a single new release, leaving the fifteen other movies to fight it out over the remaining five weeks.  It gets even more dire when you look at the specific release schedules in question.  You've got four weekends with one (1) new release and one weekend with two (2) new nationwide releases.  That leaves fifteen movies fighting it out over four weekends, four weekends which now average 3.75 films a weekend.  Something's gotta give and/or someone has to have the good sense to move around a bit and spread the wealth.

Don't think, just run! Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn part II gets a goofy but charmingly dumb poster.

Umm, I guess they are all going for a quick jog.  And I'd make the joke that "Edward, Jacob, and Bella are jogging right at *you*!", but this is the rare tent-pole franchise of the last three years to never go the 3D route (and kudos to Summit for that).  Yes, this is a silly poster, which is fitting for the end of a rather silly series that I have a certain fondness for.  I have an essay hidden away until closer before the film's release about why the Twilight Saga was actually a worthwhile and important franchise, but that can wait.  For now, let us feast our eyes on the almost courageously goofy one-sheet artwork, as well as the 'epic finale that will live forever' tagline that is both too wordy and too late.  This isn't Return of the King or Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part II.  This is a series finale that apparently climaxes with a battle about the same scale as the 'lets all kill each other in the snow' smack-down that closed The Golden Compass.  Still, in an era with any number of would-be Potter pretenders that never made it past their initial installments, The Twilight Saga should be proud that they made it to the end and got to summarily close the book on their own franchise in their own terms.  Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn part II opens November 16th, 2012.  As always, we'll see, but I've come this far.

Scott Mendelson 

Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn II gets a final trailer.

Updated with the full trailer...
Summit/Lionsgate know they don't have to hard sell, although it's a little sad watching them try to sell their series finale (featuring a couple dozen vampires and a few wolves fighting in the snow) as  anything as epic as The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King or Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part II.  The only real box office questions are whether the real life gossip fodder surrounding Kristen Stewart and Robert Pattinson will have an effect and/or whether the film will get any kind of hard 'series finale bump'.  I'm guessing no to both questions.  I'm guessing an opening weekend a little higher than New Moon's $142 million, if only for inflation, and then a swift theatrical play that gets the film just past Eclipse's $300 million domestic total.  Anyway, this one is two months away.  As always we'll see.  I've made it this far with this critically complicated but worthwhile little franchise.  I'll be there for the end.

Scott Mendelson

Why Kristen Stewart's public apology is far more disturbing than her (and Rupert Sanders's) apparent transgression.

It could be argued that director Rupert Sanders and actress Kristen Stewart owe an apology to a handful of people.  Obviously they are in respective deep trouble with Robert Pattinson and Liberty Ross.  They certainly owe an apology to Saunders's two children, and perhaps some kind of apology to certain studio executives at Universal and Summit/Lionsgate, since their allegedly adulterous actions will certainly have some kind of impact on the respect fortunes of Snow White and the Huntsman (with a sequel now in doubt) and Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn part II (which may well increase in interest ala Mr. and Mrs. Smith).  But other than that, neither of these people owe any of us a damn thing.  I am less troubled by the apparent adultery (or attempted adultery?) than I am by Kristen Stewart's public apology, seemingly specifically intended for Mr. Pattinson but released out into the open for all to see as a kind of public mea culpa.  I don't blame Ms. Stewart for this instant press release so much as I blame a media/popular culture that demanded a public apology for an inherently private indiscretion.

Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn part II gets a trailer.

I've been whining a lot about sledgehammer-style advertising campaigns, so I must give kudos to this brief and concise trailer.  It's about 75-seconds long and does little more than set up the story and offer a few alleged money shots.  What I do find amusing is that this trailer isn't even trying to sell the idea that this series finale has anything approaching the scope and pathos of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part II.  Yes there is a final battle of sorts, but it's clear that it's about on the scale of the action finale from The Golden Compass, which was basically a street fight as far as fantasy battle scenes are concerned.  Maybe the next trailer will sell the emotional highs, but of course I'd argue that there doesn't need to be a 'next trailer'.  I can't imagine anyone who isn't already a Twi-Hard not seeing this in theaters, while the whole 'series finale' enticement will only rope in so many casual fans. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn part II opens on November 16th, 2012, or the 11th-anniversary of the opening of Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone, for whatever that's worth.  It's opening unapposed, as its Skyfall the previous weekend, but considering there are five (!) movies opening over Thanksgiving, I imagine something will end up opening alongside one of the two films (Ang Lee's Life of Pi perhaps?) As always, we'll see.  

Scott Mendelson

Box Office Speculation: With few real competitors, why The Hunger Games will likely end 2012 as its second highest-grossing film.

I made an offhand comment in yesterday's box office write-off stating that The Hunger Games was all-but certain to end the year as among the top-three grossing films (domestically) by the time 2012 ended.  To be fair, it inspired more chit-chat on Twitter than it did here (my twitter followers really ought to comment here more often), but there were a number of 'what about THIS film?' and what-not.  So let's take a few moments to really examine the theoretical box office potential of the would-be box office giants of summer 2012 and the Thanksgiving/Christmas season.  This will be focusing on the biggest-of-the-big, so films that will merely be solid hits (Battleship, Snow White and the Huntsmen, anything and everything released between July 21st and November 9th) need not apply.  What is the plausible box office verdict on these films, and what real chance do they have against the likely $375-$400 million final domestic cume of The Hunger Games?  To put it bluntly, with one obvious exception, the odds are not in their favor.

Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn part II gets a bare-minimalist teaser.

I'm sure there will be whining about how little this teaser reveals about this November's series finale of the Twilight Saga, but why carp?  Kudos for Summit/Lionsgate for not giving away the store, since there is absolutely no need to do so.  This is the fifth entry in a remarkably consistent series, so obviously those who don't care now won't care in November.  And those who already care either read the books or might want to walk into the theater unaware.  So yay for the marketing campaign seeing fit to not give away a gosh-darned thing a mere eight months prior to release.  Anyway, Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn part II concludes the franchise on November 16th, 2012, eleven years to the day when the Harry Potter saga began.

Scott Mendelson

Audiences seeing film trailers in THEATERS first? Ye speak SORCERY! Lionsgate to debut Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn part II trailer with The Hunger Games.

Yes, as expected by everyone and their cat, Lionsgate will indeed unleash the first trailer for The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn part II two weeks from tomorrow, attached exclusively to prints of The Hunger Games.  It's an obvious move, using one massively popular franchise to prop up a new franchise that shares at least some core demographics.  But what is most heartening about the move is that Lionsgate will in fact be keeping the trailer offline that entire opening weekend.  That's right, Twi-hards, there may be crummy YouTube bootlegs popping up online on Friday morning, but if you want to see a quality copy before Monday, March 26th (at 3:00am PST... really guys?), you actually have to buy a ticket to The Hunger Games over its opening weekend.  What a novel concept!    

Weekend Box Office (12/04/11): With no new wide-releases, Twilight tops, Muppets drop, and smaller films (Shame, Descendants, Artist) take center stage.

As is sometimes the case with the post-Thanksgiving weekend, studios did not offer up a single new wide release.  While that's understandable considering the customary huge drops that the holdovers take this weekend, it's frustrating this year considering the sheer amount of product being released over the last ten days of the year (does Summit really expect The Darkest Hour to strike huge over Christmas weekend?).  Anyway, to the surprise of some (including me), a larger-than-expected drop for The Muppets allowed Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn part I to top the box office for the third weekend in a row.  The fourth film in the saga grossed $16.9 million, for a drop of 60% and a cume of $247 million.  While it's still trailing the respective end-of-third weekend totals of New Moon ($267 million) and Eclipse ($255 million), it had the largest third weekend of the franchise and a slightly smaller drop than New Moon (which tumbled 64% in weekend three for a $15 million weekend).  So while it still may end up trailing the last two pictures, it has a fighting chance to end up awfully close to the $295-300 million range of the prior sequels.  It's also just ahead of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part I, which had $244 million at this point and eventually crawled to $295 million.

Weekend Box Office (11/27/11): Breaking Dawn part I tops Thanksgiving weekend, while Muppets shines in family film pile-up and limited debuts score.

 As expected, Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn part I (essay) topped the holiday weekend box office as three new family films (including The Muppets) and three limited releases more-or-less cannibalized each other.  The big opener of the weekend was The Muppets (review).  All eyes were watching this much-hyped franchise revival, and the fans did not let Kermit and company down.  The picture, which Disney wisely spent just $45 million to produce, grossed $29.5 million on Fri-Sun and $42 million over its five-day opening.  The film (deservedly) scored an A from Cinemascore, although I don't know the demo stats yet (IE - did kids actually choose to see it and/or like it, or were the jerks dragged by their parents?).  As it is, the film is already the second biggest grossing Muppet movie of all time, out of seven, coming in under the $65 million gross of The Muppet Movie back in 1979.  Inflation-wise, The Muppets will have to gross $90 million to achieve that rank, although surpassing the adjusted-for-inflation $206 million gross of The Muppet Movie is pretty unlikely.  In even better (if arbitrary) news, the utter lack of any wide releases next weekend plus the likely downward plunge for Breaking Dawn part I means that The Muppets will likely top the box office next weekend.  So there clearly is an audience for this 35-year old franchise, all Disney has to do now is not overestimate their appeal.  Point being, if Disney decides to make a film sequel (as opposed to a new TV series or what-have-you), they shouldn't be spending $100 million on it.

Weekend Box Office (11/20/11): Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn scores 5th-biggest debut, while Happy Feet Two fails and Descendants scores in limited debut.

It is weird that I have so little to offer on a weekend when a film earned the fifth-biggest debut in US history, as well as the tenth-biggest worldwide bow.  But the Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn part I (essay) had an opening weekend that is so perfectly in line with the franchise, that it is not only unexpected, but leaves us with little doubt in regards to how the film will fare in the long haul.  For the record, Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn part I (trailer and teaser) opened with $139.5 million this weekend, $30 million of which came purely on Thursday midnight showings.  That's just shy of the $142 million debut of Twilight Saga: New Moon on this same weekend two years ago.  With a 1.93x weekend multiplier film was slightly more front-loaded than the first sequel (they both had $72 million opening Fridays), but less so than the original Twilight.  The original, with its $35 million opening day and $69 million opening weekend, opened with a 1.97x weekend multiplier this weekend three years ago).  The third film, Eclipse, opened on a Wednesday over the Independence Day holiday of 2010, which makes comparisons difficult.  The film played 80% female, 60% over-21, and earned a B+ from Cinemascore.