Friday Box Office: Skyfall does $33 million on opening day (s).

Oddly enough, despite the four years of hype and anticipation, plus the IMAX sneak-peak and respective price bump, Skyfall earned just a bit more than Quantum of Solace on its first Friday.  With $33 million in the bag (including its $2.2 million Thursday IMAX sneak day), it's just above the $27 million debut for Quantum of Solace.  Adjusted for inflation and the IMAX price bump, it barely sold more tickets.  On the plus side, this new entry is likely to have much better word of mouth and thus insure a larger multiplier both for the weekend and for the long-game.  I don't have much time so I'm going to make this quick.  The weekend multiplier comparisons are the last six 007 films, basically everything since 1995 when Pierce Brosnan kicked the films into the blockbuster age with GoldenEye back in 1995.  GoldenEye debuted with $26 million off a $8 million* opening day (3.25x) while Tomorrow Never Dies earned $8 million* on its first day heading towards a $25 million debut (3.125x).  The World Is Not Enough earned $12 million towards a $35 million opening (2.9x) while Die Another Day opened with $16 million towards a $47 million opening weekend (2.9x).  Casino Royale opened with $14 million and closed Sunday with $40 million (2.85x) while Quantum of Solace debuted with $27 million and closed the weekend with $67 million ($74 million adjusted for inflation and a 2.4x weekend multiplier).  Thus assuming the mostly disliked Quantum of Solace was a fluke (it dropped a bit on Saturday) but acknowledging a more front-loaded marketplace, we're looking at something between 2.6x and 2.9x for the weekend.  Thus Skyfall could open with between $86 million and $95 million for the weekend.  Obviously we'll know for sure tomorrow...

Scott Mendelson

*The opening days for GoldenEye and Tomorrow Never Dies are estimates based on my recollection, as I can't find opening day figures.  Alas ShowbizData doesn't allow you to dig into their daily box office archives.

Friday box office: The Avengers grosses $80 million on Friday. Why we may be looking at a $200 million opening weekend!

Ten years ago we had the first $100 million opening weekend.  Five years ago we had the first $150 million opening weekend.  This weekend, we may be looking at the first $200 million Fri-Sun opening weekend.  The Avengers followed up its $18.7 million midnight haul with a $80.5 million gross for its first full day.  That's the  second-biggest single day on record, behind the $92 million opening sprint for Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part II.  It's also by far the largest single-day gross not counting midnight screenings.  Even if you negate the midnight haul, The Avengers still grossed $61 million during 'regular business hours'.  For example, The Dark Knight earned $18.5 million at midnight and $67 million for its first full Friday, giving it a $49 million 'normal day' Friday figure.  Among the various single day champions in recent years: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part II ($92m - $43m = $49 million), Spider-Man 3 ($59m - $10m = $48m), The Hunger Games ($67m - $19.75m = $48m), and The Twilight Saga: New Moon ($72m - $26m = $46m).  As you can see, The Avengers is so-far actually far less front-loaded than all of them, meaning it is playing less like a heavily-anticipated geek-centric smash and more like a general audiences mega-hit. Point being, the three-day opening weekend record ($169 million for Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part II) is still very much in jeopardy.

When 'on track' becomes a 'disappointing': The perils of early box office reporting...

At 3:28pm yesterday, The Hollywood Reporter sent out links to an article regarding early box office estimates based purely on afternoon matinees on the East Coast.  In it, they claimed that Paramount's Footloose remake was on track to gross $20 million for the weekend, which was considered a solid win as tracking had put the film at between $15 million and $18 million going into Friday.  Yet by midnight, the numbers had been revised, both by The Hollywood Reporter and Deadline Hollywood.  Now the number is at around $5.57 million for Friday, which means that the 80s remake looks to gross around $16-17 million (of course, official Friday estimates will be out in a couple hours...).  So, as expected, Nikki Finke is screaming about how the number is 'disappointing', with yet another seemingly-invented quote from a studio executive about how the industry is 'DOOMED!'.  Yes, some of this is just Finke being Finke where every weekend is a failure and every movie is terrible.  But we have a situation where a film was 'doing better than expected' in the late afternoon, yet was a disappointment despite opening right in line with tracking because the earliest-of-early estimates were a bit over-inflated.  Yes yes, I know I spent the summer guessing the weekend box office grosses for major summer films based on midnight grosses, so perhaps I may be a hypocrite.  BUT, I didn't run around screaming 'bomb!' because a film's opening weekend didn't open right in line with my purely-for-fun midnight math.  As it is, I'd argue it's good news that an 80s remake that no one wanted and a prequel to an 80s horror film (which is in itself a remake of a 50s horror film) that no one didn't explode at the box office (The Thing looks to do around $10 million, give or take).  Maybe the world wants more than remakes and revamps of the movies they grew up with...

Scott Mendelson

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part II nets $92.1m in single day, crushing the single day record and heading towards new opening weekend record ($175-185 million seems likely).

In November 2001, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone set a new opening weekend record by grossing $90.2 million in three days.  Yesterday, the series finale, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part II (review) grossed $92.1 million in a single day. Let that sink in for a moment.  Yes, the eighth and final chapter of the Harry Potter series overtook the single-day record from The Twilight Saga: New Moon, which had grossed $72.7 million on its opening Friday back in (same weekend, natch) mid-November 2009.  Yes, some of this 26% increase can be attributed to the 3D price-bump (I imagine that Summit is in a room right now convincing themselves to convert the last two Twilight films to 3D).  And yes, the film earned a record 47% of its opening day total at midnight alone ($43.5 million).  But I'll let someone else complain about that.  Even with inflation and 3D prices taken into account, the film still sold 11.7 million tickets, the most ever for a single day (and a little over 2 million more than The Dark Knight and Twilight Saga: New Moon).  Even if Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part II has the most front-loaded opening weekend in history (African Cats has the record with a 1.81x weekend multiplier), it still will likely dethrone The Dark Knight ($158 million) as the new opening weekend champion.

Box Office (07/01/11): Transformers: Dark of the Moon picks up the pace ($32.9m), while Larry Crowne underwhelms and Cars 2 crashes.

First, the good news... Transformers: Dark of the Moon grossed a massive $32.9 million on Friday.  That's $11 more than the first Transformers film grossed on its first Friday and just $4 million less than Revenge of the Fallen (despite the first sequel having a $20 million-bigger opening day than this latest installment).  It went up about 50% from Thursday to Friday, the biggest such jump in the franchise.  It's also the third-biggest non-opening Friday in history, behind Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen ($36 million) and Star Wars: Episode III: Revenge of the Sith ($33.5 million).  Point being, it's clear that many fans (and general moviegoers) were just waiting for the regular weekend to check out the latest installment.  The film has grossed $97 million since Wednesday, making it technically the biggest three-day gross of 2011.  It has an outside shot at becoming the first $100 million Fri-Sun debut, especially as Monday is a holiday (hence Sunday acts like Saturday).  But whether it ends up with $165 million by Monday or $185 million by Monday, the film is also doing gangbusters business overseas.  The total worldwide six-day debut looks to be in the neighborhood of $400 million.

Friday Box Office: Hangover 2 grosses $30m, Kung Fu Panda 2 takes in $13.5m, Tree of Life grosses $115,000 on four screens.

For the moment, The Hangover 2 seems to be even stronger than I anticipated, while Kung Fu Panda 2 may not be breaking out as large as I hoped.  Anyway, The Hangover 2 scored another $30 million on Friday night, showing almost no decline from its $31 million opening day.  In fact, when you factor in the $10 million in midnight screenings that made up 1/3 of the opening day, the Friday performance is even more impressive.  Point being, there is a chance that The Hangover 2 will have consistent business all weekend long, as opposed to a heavily-front-loaded opening day.  The two models that may apply are Sex and the City 2 and Terminator: Salvation.  Last year's TV sequel grossed $51 million in five days, earning $26 of that in the first two.  Obviously that film was frontloaded in its first two days, and there is a risk that Hangover 2 may suffer the same fate if it gets harder to do the whole 'guy's night out' thing over the family-friendly holiday (which is a problem that Sex and the City 2 faced last year, with 'girls' night out' being hard to arrange while taking care of the kids and setting up the family events).  Under that model, The Hangover 2 will gross $115 million by Monday night, which is still a solid take.  Under the Terminator: Salvation model, the film will play all weekend long at a consistent pace, giving The Hangover 2 a stunning $141 million over five days.  Obviously, Saturday numbers will tell the tale.

Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides opening day collects $35 million, looks on course to $86 million weekend.

It's a $35 million opening Friday for Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides.  That's expectedly below the opening Fridays for Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest ($55 million - a record at the time) and Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End ($42 million, despite $13 million in Thursday night sneaks).  The film pulled in about 13% of its Friday total in midnight screenings ($4.7 million), which is slightly less than the 16% midnight haul of Dead Man's Chest ($9 million of its $55 million Friday), even though Dead Man's Chest obviously pulled in more midnight cash overall.  Considering inflation and 3D/IMAX ticket price bumps, it stands to reason that attendance was way down compared to the prior sequels.  As it is, the second film (the only prior entry up to now with a pure Fri-Sun opening weekend) had a 2.4x weekend multiplier, which led to a then-record $135 million opening weekend.  If the sequel follows suit, we get the predicted $86 million opening haul.  The third film is a more difficult comparison.  If you purely count Fri-Sun, it had a 2.7 weekend multiplier ($114 million for Fri-Sun), which would give the fourth film $96 million for the weekend.  But At World's End made $13 million on those Thursday night sneaks, meaning that it basically made $56 million on its first 1.25 days.  Using that, it means that the film pulled in over 1/2 its opening weekend in just the first 1.25 days (and then it did another $25 million on Memorial Day Monday).  So the safest bet is to split the pure Fri-Sun difference, hope for strong kiddie-driven matinée attendance (poor kids...), and guess a 2.55 weekend multiplier, which will give the film $89 million for the weekend, good enough for 2011's top opening haul thus far.  In better news for humanity, Bridesmaids only dropped about 18% from last weekend (about $6 million), setting it on course for a $20 million second weekend.

Scott Mendelson    

Thor grosses $25.7 million on opening Friday, looks headed for $65-72 million debut weekend.

It was pretty much a foregone conclusion once the midnight numbers were released, but Marvel's Thor has opened with a rock-solid $25.7 million for its first Friday. The film is polling at a 'B+' from Cinemascore, with an 'A' from audiences under 18. The film did about 12% of that from midnight showings, which is normal for such fare. Where it goes from here is an open question of course. Non-sequels that did the 12% of their Friday grosses on midnight or Thursday night (Avatar and Inception for example) had weekend multipliers of about 2.8x, which would give Thor a hearty $72 million. But even a slightly front-loaded 2.6x would give the picture $65 million, which still feels like the likely end result for the Fri-Sun period. The other two major openers, Something Borrowed and Jumping the Broom, opened with $4.8 million and $4.1 million respectively, so both should gross around $12 million for the weekend. More to come once the weekend numbers roll in (although my analysis may be a little later than usual, due to the whole Mother's Day celebrations and what-not).

Scott Mendelson

Friday box office (04/29/11): $33.2 million for Fast Five, $79-83 million weekend debut likely. Prom and Hoodwinked Too under-perform.

With an opening day that is bigger than all-but two live-action opening weekends this year (Battle: Los Angeles's $36 million opening and The Green Hornet's $33.5 million debut weekend), Fast Five kicked off the summer movie season in high style. The film pulled in just 11% of its opening day tally in midnight screenings. If the picture performs with the same 2.4x weekend multiplier as Fast and Furious ($30m/$72m), it's got an $80 million opening weekend on tap, bigger than the two largest opening weekends of 2011 (Rio and Rango) combined, nearly $10 million higher than the last picture, the record for an April debut, and the biggest three-day opening in Universal's history (the prior record holder is The Lost World: Jurassic Park with $72.3 million). Obviously we'll know how it plays tomorrow, but I'm personally expecting a less frontloaded picture than the previous entry, if only because it's a much better film (although that may not be a factor until next weekend). There's nothing breathtaking about a well-marketed sequel in a popular franchise performing in line with expectations, but it's still nice when a good genre film opens well. Prom made just $1.8 million while Hoodwinked Too grossed just $1.1 million. I don't know how much Dylan Dog: Dead of Night made on just $270,000 on 875 screens.

Scott Mendelson

Friday Box Office (01-22-11): No Strings Attached opens with $7.3 million, but Nikki Finke falsely calls Ashton Kutcher a flop-machine anyway.

"...any movie starring Ashton Kutcher is probably a bomb..." - Nikki Finke discussing Paramount's unwillingness to personally send her a press briefing on No Strings Attached

An absolute falsehood. She bases her assertion on a single film, Killers, which opened with $15 million and grossed $93 million worldwide (which would have been fine had the film not cost $70 million). Valentine's Day (an ensemble film where he had the lead role) opened to $56 million just last year. What Happened In Vegas opened to $20 million and ended up with $219 million worldwide (his biggest grosser ever) just under three years ago. Sure, he occasionally out-and-out whiffs (A Thing Like Love, My Boss's Daughter), but Kutcher is a relatively consistent opener.

Green Hornet opens with $11.1m Friday: When meeting expectations is still a 'failure'.

So let me get this straight. A couple of months ago, The Green Hornet was that surefire flop that had switched release dates, been converted to 3D, and had survived an avalanche of bad press and rampantly negative speculation. A month ago, the tide started turning, due to some secret screenings for the hardcore nerd film bloggers and the realization that there wasn't anything of note coming out in the month of January. Two weeks ago, tracking started swinging upwards and the studio was optimistically discussing an opening weekend of around $35-40 million for the four day holiday weekend. So come Saturday morning, the picture has opened with $11.1 million on its first day, which puts it track to score around $30-35 million over three days and $35-40 million in four days. So, expectations met, mission accomplished, right? Ha!

Tron: Legacy grosses $18 million in first day.

Not much to report that can't wait for tomorrow when the weekend numbers are announced, but Tron: Legacy opened with $18 million on its first full day. That's a bit above the $14 million opening Fridays for Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring and King Kong, slightly below the $19 million opening Friday of Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, but far below the $21 million Friday of Lord of the Rings: Return of the King. Of course, all the noted films opened on Wednesday. In terms of films that opened on this weekend on a Friday, it's well below the $26 million scored by Avatar and the $30 million snagged by I Am Legend, but it's above the $10 million opening-day gross of Lemony Snicket: A Serious of Unfortunate Events. 20% of its first-day take came from midnight screenings. That's a bit high, as 15% is the norm, but it's not anywhere near the sky-high midnight grabs for Paranormal Activity 2 ($6.3m/$19m - 33%), Twilight Saga: New Moon ($26m/$72m - 36%), Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince ($22m/$58m - 37%), Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part I ($24m/$61m - 39%), or Twilight Saga: Eclipse ($30m/$68m - 44%). So unless the world at large hates the movie as much as I do (who knows... I thought Transformers 2 would get kneecapped over the long weekend), give the film a 2.5x multiplier and a $45 million opening weekend.

Scott Mendelson

Friday Box Office (11/19/10): Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part I scores $61.2 million on first day.

It's a $61.2 million Friday for Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part I. That's the fifth-biggest single day of all time, behind the opening days of Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen ($62 million), The Dark Knight ($67 million), Twilight Saga: Eclipse ($68 million), and Twilight Saga: New Moon ($72 million). It's the third biggest Friday of all, as Transformers 2 and Twilight Saga: Eclipse both opened on a Wednesday. The number surpasses the $58 million that Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince earned on its first day (a Wednesday), and it clobbers the $40 million that Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire earned on its first Friday in November 2005 (the last time one of these films opened on a Friday). For a bit of perspective, nine years ago this weekend, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone broke the record for a single day gross with $32 million on its first Friday (it would break that record again with $33 million the next day). Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part I nearly doubled that.

Friday Box Office (10/22/10): Paranormal Activity 2 grosses $20.1 million while Clint Eastwood's Hereafter grosses $4.1 million.

After scoring a record $6.3 million in midnight showings alone, Paranormal Activity 2 ended its first day with $20.1 million. For what it's worth, that means that Paranormal Activity 2 had one of the lowest 'midnight-to-opening day' multipliers in history. Only Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince ($22m midnight/$58m opening day), The Twilight Saga: New Moon ($26m/$72m), and The Twilight Saga: Eclipse ($30m/$68m) had a larger percentage of their opening day grosses from their respective midnight debuts. So there's a good chance that this horror sequel will end up just as front-loaded as, ironically, the Saw sequels. Still, a $3 million sequel with minimal advertising just scored $20 million in a single day, or about what the original made on its first weekend of wide release ($21 million) exactly a year ago. I'm sure no one at Paramount is shedding tears over the math regarding midnight sneaks. The film bested the $14.8 million opening day of The Ring Two (the previous record holder for supernatural horror), and scored the biggest opening day in history for an R-rated horror film. 2.2x weekend multiplier would give the picture about $45 million, which sounds about right. Anything above $39.1 million would top The Grudge and give Paranormal Activity 2 the biggest opening weekend for a supernatural horror picture.

Question of the day: Would Piranha 2D have performed better than Piranha 3D?

Piranha, with $3.5 million on its opening day, is a textbook example of how 3D could end up killing theater-going. Piranha is the very definition of something that could be enjoyed as a cheap afternoon matinée. However, thanks to the 3D surcharge, there is no available cheap matinée, with the cheapest tickets in LA running around $10, those being AMC's before-noon screenings. Anything after noon anywhere runs you at least $13. In all of the LA/Hollywood area, I found two theaters showing Piranha in 2D (the Universal Citywalk 19 and the Pacific Winnetka 21). Once a large majority of big (or small) genre films exist only in 3D, then you lose a large chunk of the casual moviegoers who either don't like 3D or just don't want to pay $30 to take their date to an afternoon showing of something like Piranha. Theaters can charge whatever they want for 3D as long as audiences have a viable 2D option. Take away that, and it becomes that much easier to just spend $20 to buy the DVD/Blu Ray in four months.

Scott Mendelson

Friday box office - The Expendables outdraws a strong Eat Pray Love while Scott Pilgrim vs. the World does cult geek business. (08/13/10).

The Expendables was number one in its first day of release, taking in $13.3 million. The Sly Stallone and friends ensemble looks heading for an opening weekend of around $35 million. Although the picture cost $82 million, distributor Lionsgate is only on the hook for a $20 million distribution fee and a chunk of the (likely abundant) marketing costs. This is a massive win for the beleaguered House that Jigsaw Built, as Lionsgate absolutely had to open this above their $23 million peak if they wanted to prove they could play in the big leagues. As I've written any number of times, if you take away the Saw sequels and the Tyler Perry pictures, the studio's biggest opening weekend was Fahrenheit 9/11 with $23.9 million and The Haunting In Connecticut with $23 million. Be it Rambo ($18.2 million), Kick Ass ($19.8 million), 3:10 to Yuma ($14 million), or Killers ($15.8 million), Lionsgate has had a problem opening seemingly break-out pictures above their $15-19 million ceiling.

Inception holds off strong-smelling Salt in Friday box office (07/24/10).

Inception was number one at the Friday box office yesterday, pulling in $13.2 million on its second Friday. That's a moderate drop of 39% from last Friday's $21.6 million opening day. The film has capitalized on strong word of mouth and the mydrid multiple interpretations that merited repeated viewings for those with that kind of time (I've seen just eight films in a theater twice since 2005, none since May 2008 when I took my dad to see Indiana Jones and the Crystal Skull). The Chris Nolan mindbender posted solid weekday numbers that propelled it over $100 million on Thursday (that's just seven days, which is pretty impressive for a movie that opened with $62 million). The second weekend drop should be somewhere around 35%, or a second weekend total of $40 million, which is incredibly impressive in this frontloaded box office age.

Inception opens with $21 million, Sorcerer's Apprentice grosses $5 million (that's what you get for opening on Wed!). Friday box office for 07/16/10.

Right in line with the highest expectations, Chris Nolan's Inception pulled in $21.6 million on its first full day, including $3 million in midnight sneaks. Depending on whether it plays like a general-audiences hit or a frontloaded genre picture, it could do anywhere from $55 million to $65 million over the weekend. In the realm of live-action films that are completely original and not based on any other prior property, Inception's opening day ranks fourth , behind Avatar ($26.7 million), The Day After Tomorrow ($23.5 million) and 2012 ($23.4 million), while ranking just above M. Night Shyamalan's Signs ($20.8 million) and The Village ($20.3 million). It's a doozy of a start, and it will be absolutely fascinating to see just what drew audiences to this epic puzzler (the concept, Leonardo DiCaprio, or Chris Nolan). It looks like Chris Nolan has joined the exclusive club of marquee directors (James Cameron, M. Night Shyamalan, Tim Burton, Steven Spielberg) who can open a high-concept picture partially on their name in the ad campaign.

Twilight Saga: Eclipse, Last Airbender hold steady in Friday box office (07/02/10).

The Twilight sequel, Eclipse pulled in $28.6 million, which is a 18% uptick from the $24.2 million that the film pulled in on Thursday. Said Friday gross is the twenty-ninth biggest Friday ever, and the sixth-biggest non-opening Friday ever. While we can all bemoan the fact that the film is still pulling in less than half of its opening day total of $68.5 million, the romantic drama has still grossed $121.3 million in three days, which is the ninth-biggest three-day total ever. As it is, the Thursday and Friday numbers ($52.8 million) are within a few million of the first two days ofIndiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull ($55.6 million). Said Indy sequel pulled in $150 million in its first five days (Thurs-Mon). So if Eclipse performs accordingly for the rest of the holiday, we're looking at around $142 million for the Thursday-Monday portion (or whatNew Moon pulled in on its opening Fri-Sun opening weekend), with that extra $68 million opening-day tagged on just for fun for the six day haul. In other words, $200 million for six days should be a cake walk at this point unless the film completely collapses over the holiday.

Friday box office - Toy Story 3 crushes newbies, Grown Ups opens per normal Sandler standards, and Knight and Day regains momentum.

At $18 million, Toy Story 3 has the 29th-biggest non-opening Friday of all-time. However, if you discount day eight or day ten grosses (IE - for a film that opened on Wednesday) that were not part of a holiday weekend, Toy Story 3 once again shoots up to number four, behind Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest ($18.5 million), Spider-Man ($19.9 million) and The Dark Knight ($23.2 million). It's eight-day gross is now at $185 million, which is eighth on the list, just ahead of Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince ($184.9 million). In realms of eight day grosses where the first or second weekend did not fall in a holiday, the film moves up to third place, behind Spider-Man 3 ($199.2 million), and The Dark Knight ($261.8 million). At a 57% drop from Friday to Friday, the film should bounce way back with weekend matinee business today and tomorrow. Expect a second-weekend total of $60-65 million, and a ten day total of about $230 million (the sixth or seventh-best, depending on the final numbers).