What will the next wave of blockbusters bring? What 2013 release will be the next Star Wars/Batman/Harry Potter?

This is something I've touched on here and there, but here we are in 2013.  I've been waiting with baited breath for awhile to see what the 2013 movie release schedule bring.  Will he pattern I've long spoken of hold true?  Will this year determine the next decade of mainstream blockbuster filmmaking?  If history repeats itself, something out there to be released this year will change the game.  If the pattern holds will have a major smash hit that will not only make a lot of money for its studio but will also blaze a trail in terms of what the next decade of blockbusters will look like. It has happened every eleven years or so for the last few decades.  What major 2013 release will usher in the next wave of tent-poles   What will those new films look like?  Or has the game-changer already happened while we weren't paying attention?

Another weekend, another perfect example of the utter stupidity of weekend-to-weekend box office comparison...

Granted, I'm going by unofficial weekend estimates based on the Friday box office figures, but it appears that the entire total gross of all films in the box office top-twelve this weekend will equal around $96 million.  This same weekend last year had a total top-12 gross of $145 million, meaning this weekend will be down by about 34%.  I guess according to the standards set by the 'official' box office punditry, that would mean that moviegoing may be in a slump, right?  I mean, weekend-to-weekend totals are down by nearly $50 million compared to 2011 on this specific weekend!  Oh... wait, what's that you say?  Last weekend had the debut of Universal's Fast Five, the much-anticipated fifth installment in the recharged Fast/Furious franchise?  You remember Fast Five, right?  Great reviews, strong marketing, popular franchise... all of these things led to a massive $86 million opening weekend, the biggest in Universal history.  Yes that's right, last year had Universal rolling the dice and successfully kicking off the summer season a week earlier than usual, and it paid off in spades.  So you have a weekend where one film last year made almost as much as the entire top-twelve films' total grosses from this year.  You mean we shouldn't be too surprised if the cumulative might of The Raven, Safe, The Pirates: Band of Misfits, and The Five-Year Engagement couldn't quite measure up to a blockbuster debut like Fast Five? The four openers should gross about $36 million combined over the weekend, or about what Fast Five alone made on its opening day.  Oh right, maybe, just maybe, it IS about the individual movies performing at levels that are judged based on the respective expectations of each specific picture after all!  Four small-ish pictures debuted with relatively small-ish grosses, and their combined might plus the various holdovers weren't enough to equal the juggernaut of a presold (and well-reviewed, natch) blockbuster sequel.

The 2011 movie year in box office trends part I: Sequels drop domestically, but soar internationally.

I generally dislike trend pieces. I'm a strong proponent of the idea that how well a film does is specific to the movie itself.  That having been said, there were a handful of interesting patterns that did rear their ugly or not-so ugly heads this year.  These pieces will be more about box office trends and what they may mean for the future.  Without further ado, here we go...

Sequels grossed less here, but much more over there!

Back in the 1980s and 1990s, with a few exceptions, it was generally a foregone conclusion that sequels would cost more than the originals but gross a bit less.  Normal were sequels like Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom ($184 million versus $242 million for Raiders of the Lost Ark) or Batman Returns ($162 million vs. $251 million for Batman).  Yes, you occasionally had a break-out franchise like Lethal Weapon ($65 million for Lethal Weapon, $147 million for Lethal Weapon 2), but the franchise growth pattern was generally closer to the likes of Beverly Hills Cop or Gremlins.  But sometime around 2001, starting with The Mummy Returns ($202 million versus $155 million for The Mummy) and Rush Hour 2 ($226m/$141m), we started a ten-year trend of sequels generally out-grossing their predecessors domestically.  You could argue the first big example was Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me, which out-grossed its predecessor in just its opening weekend in June 1999, but the general rule quickly became that a well-marketed sequel to a popular original could be expected to out-gross its immediate predecessor in America.

2011 year-end wrap-up part VI: The 'Best' films of the year.

Here is the sixth (and probably final) essay detailing the year in film.  This time, it's the best of the best.  Of course 'best' is a subjective term, so you might want to consider these my 'favorites'.  Despite what everyone likes to whine about at the end of every year, 2011 was in fact one of the better years in a good long time.  Maybe it was the effects of the 2007 WGA strike wearing off, maybe it was just dumb luck, but on the whole, movies, especially mainstream movies, were pretty on-spot more often than they weren't.  But just as important, most of the year-end Oscar bait was actually quite good, so this is a year where I don't have to half-heartedly apologize for having a list filled with movies nobody saw and mainstream pictures that no one admits to liking. Even if it took 1/3 of the year to really get cooking, 2011 was an uncommonly solid year for all forms of cinematic entertainment.  And of course, there are at least a few films that might have made the cut if they hadn't come out so close to the end of the year (mainly A Separation, Shame, and Pariah).  But they merely become contenders for the 2012 Black Book award (IE - great films that you saw too late to include in your best-of list, named after  Paul Verhoeven's fantastic 2006 World War II thriller that I saw in mid-2007).  And thus, without further ado, here are the very 'best' films of 2011.  As always, the list will be alphabetical order, with a final paragraph at the end for my very favorite film.

Kinda neat: IMAX schedules a week of discounted 'old favorites'.

http://www.amctheatres.com/imaxbigmovies/

Since Contagion isn't exactly burning up the IMAX box office and Real Steel still has a week before opening, IMAX is trying something a little different.  For one week, starting tomorrow, various IMAX theaters will be showing a slate of three popular IMAX titles over the last three years.  For just $7 a ticket, you can opt to revisit Star Trek, Inception, and Fast Five on the large-screen format.  Nothing much to add here, but I almost hope this starts an occasional trend.  I'm not sure if my schedule would permit such a thing, but I'd love the opportunity to revisit Batman Begins and The Dark Knight in their IMAX glory before seeing The Dark Knight Rises.  Anyway, click on the link below the big banner ad for tickets and what not, otherwise consider this a plug for what I think is a rather fun and smart idea.  Will you be attending any of next week's bargain rereleases?  What movies would you like the chance to revisit in IMAX, or what older movies would you pay to see reconverted to IMAX (IE - the Lord of the Rings trilogy?).  Share below if so inclined.

Scott Mendelson

2011 Summer Movie Review part I: The Moments That Mattered

We'll see if my schedule allows me to do a comprehensive 'end of summer' box office wrap-up, but since summer 2011 doesn't officially end until next weekend, I figure I've got time. For now, here is my annual rundown of the various scenes, performances, moments, and miscues that defined the summer just past. Because sometimes, discussing the 'parts' is more fun than discussing the 'whole'. I'll try to avoid divulging plot twists and the like, but consider this a SPOILER WARNING.

Best Fake-Out: Vin Deisel sacrifices himself for the team at the finale of Fast Five.
Even if you feel silly admitting that you cared about the characters in this fifth and inexplicably terrific entry in the eleven-year long racing action franchise, you cannot deny that the characters cared about each other.  What made the movie pop was the genuine sense of camaraderie and bonding that existed between our main characters, which is one of the benefits of being the fifth film in a long running franchise.  So when Deisel's Dominic Toretto separates himself from the pack during the final chase scene, apparently intent on sacrificing himself to give the rest of his friends (including his pregnant sister Mia and her boyfriend Brian) a chance at freedom and riches, I bought it.  The film had built up a genuine 'series finale' vibe, and it seemed completely appropriate that the franchise would end with Dom, the series's most prominent character, giving his life so that his sister's unborn child wouldn't have to grow up without a father.  When Toretto miraculously survived his one-man cannon-ball run, I rolled my eyes a bit.  It wasn't until a week later that I remembered that this fifth film actually took place BEFORE the third film in the series (Tokyo Drift), at the end of which Vin Deisel made a cameo appearance.  Point being, Dominic Toretto was never in danger.  But the film was so unexpectedly compelling and exciting that I completely forgot what I already knew going in.

Weekend Box Office (06/05/11): X-Men First Class pulls a Batman Begins, grosses $55 million, Bridesmaids and Kung Fu Panda 2 cross $100m, Fast Five crosses $200m.

For better or worse, X-Men: First Class performed like an X-Men picture in its debut weekend, at least in terms of staying power.  Like X-Men parts 1, 2, and 4, it had just over a 2.5x weekend multiplier (X-Men: The Last Stand had a mere 2.2x weekend multiplier).  Actually, this film film had the second-highest weekend multiplier of the series, with a rock-solid 2.62x just behind the 2.7x multiplier for X2: X-Men United back in 2003.  The 60s-set, character actor-filled, and critically acclaimed prequel/reboot opened to $55.1 million, which is almost identical to what the first X-Men opened to back in 2000.  Of course, adjusted for inflation, the original X-Men's $54 million opening is about $79 million, so obviously there were far fewer tickets sold this time around.  And that should be no surprise and no defeat.  Unlike the previous trilogy, the film is filled not with fan-favorite mutants that even the general audiences know, but more 'inside baseball' characters.  There was no Wolverine, no Cyclops, no Storm.  The tone of the marketing was low-key and emphasized setting and character over spectacle.  Fox did not advertise a thrilling action adventure with Wolverine and his pals, but rather a morose and contemplative science-fiction character drama set in the 1960s, filled with unknowns and respected actors who are not box office draws (the biggest name in the film was arguably Kevin Bacon).  This was never going to replicate the massive openings of the previous entries in the series.  

Weekend Box Office (05/22/11): Pirates 4 grosses $90m, Bridesmaids holds strong, Woody Allen's Midnight in Paris astonishes in limited bow

Just ten years ago next weekend, we saw pundits studio executives hand-wringing over the 'mere' $75 million four-day gross of Michael Bay's Pearl Harbor.  For some reason (oh, it's a three-hour period love story... it's EXACTLY like Titanic!!), studio executives were expecting a $100 million four-day total.  Nevermind that such a number had never been achieved before.  As I've written elsewhere, 2001 was the year that opening weekends went crazy, where $50 million became the new $35 million and $60 million became the new $40 million.  In the last nine years (starting in May 2002 of course), we've had 25 films with $100 million+ four-day totals and 18 films with $100 million+ three-day totals.  I bring this up because once again we are faced with a Disney blockbuster that is fighting off the assumption of failure because its opening weekend didn't approach record levels.  For the record, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides opened with $90 million this weekend.  That may not be as huge as the last two sequels, but it's a fine haul for a franchise that pretty much everyone agrees is washed up.  Let this be a lesson to Disney's Chuck Viane (who actually predicted a $100 million+ weekend): it's your job to LOWER expectations, not inflate them!

Weekend Box Office (05/15/11): Bridesmaids scores, Thor repeats on top, Priest survives.

There was an undue amount of pressure for Bridesmaids (review) this weekend, as the Judd Apatow-produced film had to shoulder the burden of being a test case for the bankability of female-ensemble comedies.  Not merely able to get solid reviews and open with enough to be profitable, the film basically had to send a message to Hollywood that audiences would pay to see female-driven comedies that weren't squarely in the romantic comedy genre.  Whether or not Hollywood will actually take any heed is subject to debate (doubtful, any success that doesn't fit in the 'boy-centric fantasy/comedy' box is usually written off as a fluke), the film performed quite well in its debut weekend, grossing $26.2 million in its first three days.  Just as importantly, the film scored a big 3.34x weekend multiplier, meaning that its word of mouth matched its reviews and that it worked as a date-night choice for Friday and Saturday night.  The film rose 34% on Saturday and made almost as much on Sunday as it did on Friday.  The film scored a solid B+ from Cinemascore and  it played 67% female and 63% over-30.  That gives the film solid room to grow as the younger folks check it out over the next couple weekends, although the coming tsunami that is The Hangover II  (opening May 26th) won't help matters.  Still, the film cost just $32 million, so it's another win for Universal, a studio that has done best in the comedy arena over the last few years.  Point being, you can write up Bridesmaids as a triumph for female-driven comedies or just the triumph of a terrific movie opening well (in a just world, Kristen Wiig would be getting Oscar talk).  You pick.  Win/win.  And it will be Win/Win/WIN! is Nikki Finke makes good on her promise to retire from box office punditry (she swore to leave the field if Bridesmaids opened to over $20 million).

Weekend Box Office (05/01/11): Fast Five opens huge, everything else crashes.

Kicking off summer 2011 a little earlier than usual, Fast Five (review) raced into the record books with a massive $86.1 million opening weekend take. The film has the biggest opening weekend of 2011 (opening with more than the second and third biggest combined), the largest Fri-Sun take in Universal history (beating The Lost World: Jurassic Park's $72.3 million opening), the biggest April opening (beating Fast and Furious's $71 million opening two years ago), and easily clinching the record for the biggest opening weekend for a fifth film in a franchise. It bested the $80 million three-day take of Star Wars: Episode II: Attack of the Clones and the $77 million three-day take of Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, but those two films (as well as The Lost World) opened as parts of a four or five day weekend. With all the whining about 'slumps', I've constantly argued that it was merely a case of smaller, cheaper movies playing to smaller crowds. Well a major movie was unleashed this weekend and audiences responded accordingly. An unexpectedly terrific mass-market entertainment just opened unexpectedly well, which is good news all around. Well, Marvel and Paramount probably aren't too thrilled. This may be a case of the summer kick-off film overshadowing the bigger May giants coming around the corner (I wrote about this phenomenon back in 2008), so Thor (which has already grossed $93 million overseas) is now in a pickle for next weekend, as it just went from the summer kick-off film to the often-cursed second-out-of-the gate (it thought it was Iron Man, but now it may be Speed Racer).

Friday box office (04/29/11): $33.2 million for Fast Five, $79-83 million weekend debut likely. Prom and Hoodwinked Too under-perform.

With an opening day that is bigger than all-but two live-action opening weekends this year (Battle: Los Angeles's $36 million opening and The Green Hornet's $33.5 million debut weekend), Fast Five kicked off the summer movie season in high style. The film pulled in just 11% of its opening day tally in midnight screenings. If the picture performs with the same 2.4x weekend multiplier as Fast and Furious ($30m/$72m), it's got an $80 million opening weekend on tap, bigger than the two largest opening weekends of 2011 (Rio and Rango) combined, nearly $10 million higher than the last picture, the record for an April debut, and the biggest three-day opening in Universal's history (the prior record holder is The Lost World: Jurassic Park with $72.3 million). Obviously we'll know how it plays tomorrow, but I'm personally expecting a less frontloaded picture than the previous entry, if only because it's a much better film (although that may not be a factor until next weekend). There's nothing breathtaking about a well-marketed sequel in a popular franchise performing in line with expectations, but it's still nice when a good genre film opens well. Prom made just $1.8 million while Hoodwinked Too grossed just $1.1 million. I don't know how much Dylan Dog: Dead of Night made on just $270,000 on 875 screens.

Scott Mendelson

Fast Five scores $3.7 million in midnight screenings, could open between $19 million and $82 million for the weekend.

Fast Five (review), unofficial summer 2011 kick-off film, has grossed $3.7 million in midnight screenings. It's the biggest midnight debut in Universal history, so they have that going for them. What that means for the opening weekend is somewhat up to debate, but this is the kind of franchise that plays more to the general 'wait until the weekend' moviegoer than the hardcore 'must see it NOW' genre fans, so this number is pretty promising. With the exception of uber-frontloaded genre films, midnight screenings generally account for 5-6% of opening weekend business. Under that best-case scenario model, Fast Five is on track for a $74 million opening weekend. If it plays like Avatar (4.5%), then it gets an opening weekend of $82 million. However, for insanely anticipated films and/or heavily geek-centric franchises (think Twilight or Tron), the midnight numbers can account for 11-19% of the weekend box office. Under that worst-case scenario, Fast Five would only gross $19-34 million. In this case, I think we're clearly looking at a popular franchise that fans didn't quite feel the need to rush out and see right at midnight, meaning that the former scenario should apply. Of course, the last picture, Fast and Furious pulled a 2.5% midnight screening haul, turning a $1.8 million midnight showing into a $72 million opening weekend. That COULD happen here ($148 million opening weekend if it does), but I think we can presume that this fifth film is a bit more anticipated and front-loaded. We'll know soon enough once the Friday numbers start trickling in, but it appears that, pardon the obvious conclusion, Fast Five is off to a fast and/or furious start. For those who want a detailed look at the math regarding midnight screenings, go here.

Scott Mendelson

Another business SHOCKER! IMAX makes less with Green Hornet and Sucker Punch than with Avatar and Alice in Wonderland!!!

Yet another 'no shit, Sherlock!' business story this morning, as IMAX has announced a $1 million quarterly loss for the first chunk of 2011. Yes indeed, The Green Hornet, Mars Needs Moms, and Sucker Punch were just not enough to equal the money-making muscle of Avatar, Alice in Wonderland, and How to Train Your Dragon. And once again, I'm sure this particular company will be just fine as the summer season starts. They have a deluge of major new product over the next three months debuting in IMAX on an almost weekly basis starting tomorrow. They've got Fast Five (April 29th), Thor (May 6th), Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (May 20th), Kung Fu Panda 2 (May 26th), Super 8 (June 10th), Cars 2 (June 24th), Transformers: Dark of the Moon (July 1st), and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part II (July 15th). Green Lantern (June 17th) and Captain America (July 22nd) are forgoing IMAX at the moment, but that could change as the summer goes on. Point being, I'm pretty sure IMAX is going to be just fine.

Scott Mendelson

Review: Fast Five (2011)

Fast Five
2011
130 minutes
rated PG-13

by Scott Mendelson

Fast Five is frankly something of a miracle. Here is the fifth entry of a ten-year old franchise that has rarely surpassed mediocrity, but which now offers up a chapter that borders on genuine greatness. Here is a sequel that pays explicit attention to what came before and rewards viewers who actually watched and enjoyed the previous films. Unlike so many later sequels that basically just disregard the prior sequels and try to be a sequel to the original or a stand-alone reboot, Fast Five embraces its character relationships and continuity. I had not seen any of the Fast and the Furious films until the week prior to seeing Fast Five. Having watched the prior entries over a period of a few days, I really didn't care for any of them. As much as I enjoyed Fast Five, I cannot even imagine how rewarding this movie will be for those who have loved this series since the beginning.

Fast Five gets a Faster and Furiouser trailer.

Nothing new here, other than the fact that this latest trailer doesn't even try to justify the random 'see gyrating hotties!' shots that inevitably pop up in these kinds of trailers. I haven't seen a single film in this franchise, so even if I catch up, I'll likely wait until this one hits Blu Ray. Two notes. First, ONCE AGAIN, Universal simply must call the next film Faster and Furiouser. Second of all, the onscreen text left us hanging. It advertises 'past fast' and then 'beyond furious' but then fails to state just what lies beyond fast and beyond furious. So, put on your marketing caps and tell me: just what lies beyond fast and furious? The undiscovered country? The final frontier? World's End? You tell me...

Scott Mendelson

Fast Five gets a Super Bowl ad that makes me nostalgic for a franchise where I have yet to see a single installment.

Universal did a bang-up job two years ago with Fast & Furious, selling the return of the primary cast members as cause for celebration rather than desperation. They are pulling the same trick yet again, and this spot highlight the new player, Dwayne Johnson. Irony of ironies, these teasers are making me nostalgic for the series. I say 'irony of ironies' because I've never actually seen one. Ever. Never saw the first four, may or may not see this one. I do enjoy the ending tag, proclaiming that 'Summer starts April 29th'. That's a pretty bold gambit, and one that Marvel and Paramount might disagree with. Point being, one of Thor's primary trump cards is the idea that it's the summer kick-off film for 2011. If Fast Five steals Thor's thunder (pardon the pun), then Marvel might be in serious trouble a week later. But please, Universal, you simply must title one of these things 'Faster and Furiouser'.

Scott Mendelson