Pre-release tracking for The Muppets shows that today's kids are assholes.

The New York Magazine blog Vulture has an article detailing the box office tracking for the three major family-skewing Thanksgiving releases set to drop this Wednesday.  For the purposes of this commentary, we'll be focusing on the pre-release data for The Muppets (review).  It appears that we are raising a nation of Statler and Waldorfs... According to NRG research polls:

Actual Dark Knight Rises news! I think I get the title now...

Just as it did four years ago, Warner Bros has debuted the first official look of the primary Batman villain on the cover of Empire.  I won't comment too much on the images, and I couldn't give too craps about what that thing Batman is holding happens to be (we'll know when we know).  But the article does contain one huge plot reveal, from Mr. Nolan himself ironically.

"It's really all about finishing Batman and Bruce Wayne's story. We left him in a very precarious place. Perhaps surprisingly for some people, our story picks up quite a bit later, eight years after The Dark Knight. So he's an older Bruce Wayne; he's not in a great state."

Male-driven dramas are Oscar-bait, female-driven dramas are Lifetime movies? Are male-driven melodramas given more weight than female-driven ones?

I'd like to toss out a random thought for discussion... I really liked The Descendants.  It's a very good drama with fine performances all-around.  It arguably deserves its status as an Oscar front-runner.  But let's discuss something for a moment.  If the film revolved around an aging woman who grapples with bonding with her daughters after her unfaithful husband goes into a coma, would we still be talking about its likely Oscar victories? Would it be considered an automatic Oscar contender or would it have to fight perceptions that it was a glorified Lifetime movie?  If the film centered not around George Clooney's husband/father, but rather Shailene Woodley's suffering older daughter, would the film still be considered 'prestigious' enough to be crowned an Oscar contender before most critics/press even saw it?

Amanda Seyfried's Gone gets a (possibly) uber-spoilerific trailer.

This looks pretty run-of-the-mill, although it's nice to see Seyfried back to doing star vehicles instead of being Justin Timberlake's hostage/love interest.  But if you watch this trailer, you might want to stop right before the 2:13 mark, or right after the title flashes.  The last ten seconds contain a button, which has apparently has Seyfried in a phone conversation with the killer in question.  Fair enough, except I think I recognize said murderer's voice.  While the murderer's identity shouldn't be too hard to figure as I'm pretty sure it follows two of the rules for deducing such a thing (which name actor is playing a seemingly useless character and which said actor gets unusually high billing for playing such a useless character).  Still, if I'm correct, it's awfully dirty pool for  Summit Entertainment to blatantly give away the game as such.  Anyway, the film looks generic if intriguing, Seyfried looks gorgeous per-usual, and it looks like serviceable junk to keep us entertained between the Oscars and the summer movie season.  But if you must watch, don't watch the whole thing.

Scott Mendelson   

Weekend Box Office (11/20/11): Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn scores 5th-biggest debut, while Happy Feet Two fails and Descendants scores in limited debut.

It is weird that I have so little to offer on a weekend when a film earned the fifth-biggest debut in US history, as well as the tenth-biggest worldwide bow.  But the Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn part I (essay) had an opening weekend that is so perfectly in line with the franchise, that it is not only unexpected, but leaves us with little doubt in regards to how the film will fare in the long haul.  For the record, Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn part I (trailer and teaser) opened with $139.5 million this weekend, $30 million of which came purely on Thursday midnight showings.  That's just shy of the $142 million debut of Twilight Saga: New Moon on this same weekend two years ago.  With a 1.93x weekend multiplier film was slightly more front-loaded than the first sequel (they both had $72 million opening Fridays), but less so than the original Twilight.  The original, with its $35 million opening day and $69 million opening weekend, opened with a 1.97x weekend multiplier this weekend three years ago).  The third film, Eclipse, opened on a Wednesday over the Independence Day holiday of 2010, which makes comparisons difficult.  The film played 80% female, 60% over-21, and earned a B+ from Cinemascore.

The Expendables 2 gets the most Expendables 2-ish poster possible.

Aside from the fact that a few of the top-billed stars aren't on the poster (where's Jet Li?), this looks like the best possible poster you could craft for The Expendables 2.  I expect we'll see a teaser before the year is out, perhaps attached to Sherlock Holmes 2 or Mission: Impossible IV.  It's a shame that Lionsgate didn't have the sense of humor to attach it to Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn part I, but oh well.  Thanks to JoBlo for the poster.

Scott Mendelson

Midnight Box Office (11/18/11): Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn part I scores another $30 million at 12:01am. Opening weekend between $118 million and $163 million.

Yup, Team Bella/Edward/Jacob did it again, as the fourth Twilight picture scored another massive midnight gross, which should lead the way to another massive single-day and a massive and hilariously front-loaded opening weekend.  Breaking Dawn part I earned $30.25 million at midnight, putting it just above the $30 million earned at 12:01am by Twilight Saga: Eclipse and comfortably ahead of the $26 million earned by Twilight Saga: New Moon.  The second film's numbers are better comparison points, since the first sequel opened on the exact same weekend two years ago (and the third film opened on a Wednesday, which negates any reasonable comparison).  This is also the weekend where Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part I earned $24 million in 12:01am showings last year, which amounted to a $62 million opening day and a $125 million weekend.  The Harry Potter and Twilight films have both the biggest midnight grosses around and the most heavily-front-loaded opening weekends in the business.  As you no doubt recall, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part II scored an eye-popping $43 million in midnight shows just four months ago, which led to a $92 million opening day and a $169 million opening weekend (records, all three).  Long story short, here's how Breaking Dawn part I will measure up if its opening weekend trajectory follows its most obvious comparisons...  Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part II (3.9x its midnight number) - $118 million, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part I (5.2x  its midnight number) - $157 million, Twilight Saga: New Moon (5.4x  its midnight number) - $163 million.  So there you have it, the 3-day opening weekend record is not in any plausible danger, but The Dark Knight may find itself as merely the third-biggest debut by Sunday evening.  Most impressively, Breaking Dawn part I is achieving these massive grosses without any IMAX or 3D price-bump.  Let's split the difference between $119 million and $165 million and call a $140 million opening weekend for Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn part I.  We'll know more when the Friday numbers roll in, although I will likely be otherwise occupied (family birthday party).

Scott Mendelson

Review: The Muppets (2011) is a touching and hilarious tribute to the iconic characters, plus a commentary on the pros and cons of nostalgia.

The Muppets
2011
105 minutes
rated PG

by Scott Mendelson

There is a part of me that doesn't want The Muppets to be a box office smash.  It's a wonderful film, one of the very best movies of the year, in fact. But there is a part of me that doesn't want this to be the opening chapter in another deluge of new Muppet movies, television shows, and the like. The film, as it stands, works fine as both a standalone film and an introduction to the world created by Jim Henson some forty years ago.  But it also has an unexpected power as something else: a farewell of sorts.  It is about the heartache of losing touch with old friends and not getting that last chance to say goodbye.  It is about, among other things, how we, as a society, seek a kind of closure for certain chapters in our lives, and can sometimes feel incomplete if we don't get it.  Maybe this new film will be a gateway drug to a whole new generation of kids, and I cannot begrudge them the pleasures that Kermit and his friends have given me.  But this new entry has our felt friends emerging out of exile and in arguably peak form, and it makes a strong argument for ending on top.  Come what may, The Muppets, if need be, exists as a triumphant last hurrah and/or fitting finale to a entertainment property that never really got its 'one last show'.

Too grownup for grownup movies? Or why the movie I'm most looking forward to this Oscar season is Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows.

This was a bit more free association than I intended.  Do forgive me...

As of this writing, I have not yet seen Clint Eastwood's J. Edgar.  I had some free time on Monday and, faced with two new releases that were both playing around the same time, I chose Immortals in 2D.  I actually had a few opportunities to see the Leonardo DiCaprio picture prior to release, but passed each time.  Like a lot of would-be Oscar contenders that drop during this time of the year, the poorly reviewed 'good for you' picture felt less like nutritious entertainment and more like homework. The conventional wisdom is that the problem with mainstream Hollywood is that it fashions its films for the tastes of fourteen-year old boys, while adult films for adult film-goers are relegated to the art-house if they are released at all.  But my situation is a little different.  I find that as I get older I am less and less enticed by the so-called grownup films.  Faced with a choice between seeing the newest Oscar-bait film immediately upon release (or at a press screening downtown at 'pain-in-the-ass-traffic o'clock') or checking out something vaguely more escapist, the choice is harder and harder.  I used to relish the opportunity to see the so-called 'grown up movies' as soon as possible.  Now, due to obvious demands on my time, the insane time-crunch that is the year-end release schedule, and the glut of often mediocre art-house product (Gee, I sure hope that sensitive, quirky, and somewhat handsome young man overcomes his problems with the help of an out-of-his-league hottie who exists purely to make him enjoy life again), it sometimes seems more like a burden.

Does the Twilight Saga endorse its own story?

I did not attend last night's Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn part I screening.  I was invited, but since I'm married with two kids, I try to reserve press screenings for the important stuff, like tonight's screening of The Muppets and the deluge of Oscar-bait movies I actually want to see (Young Adult next week, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy the week after).  So while I don't loathe the series like a lot of other people do, I'd still rather catch the latest entry on my own time, instead of plunging into rush hour traffic just 36 hours or so prior to opening morning.  So while other critics (mostly the 'geek crowd' oddly enough) are openly discussing the overt weirdness that is present both in the original Breaking Dawn book and the 'first part' of its film adaptation, the above graduation speech always stuck out for me.  The reason is simple: in about 75 seconds, Ana Kendrick seemingly condemns the entire narrative arc of Bella Swan.  Marrying the first serious boyfriend you get right out of high school?  "Bad".  Not going to college?  "Bad".  Not making any effort while you're young to see the world and/or have various adventures before settling down?  "Bad."  I've had conversations with a friend of mine about whether or not Stephenie Meyer actually endorses the narrative arc that Bella Swan undergoes during the four-novel series, as well as whether or not she wanted Edward Cullen and Bella to end up together at the end at all.