Weekend Finals... (updated from yesterday)

The List.

The Dark Knight - $75.1 million. The biggest non-opening weekend of all time, by a good $4 million (of course, adjusted for inflation, Shrek 2 and Spider-Man probably sold more tickets in their second weekends). A Damn fine hold (-52%) for an incredibly popular picture. The new ten-day total is and obscene $314 million. Despite all the talk of taking down Titanic (plausible but not probable), it's still playing like a hyper-popular version of Pirates Of The Caribbean 2: Dead Man's Chest. And remember, summer was pretty much over after Pirates 2 in 2006 (look out Jack Sparrow, it's Miami Vice, Snakes Of A Plane, and Lady In The Water!). But The Dark Knight still has to face The Mummy 3, The Pineapple Express, Tropic Thunder, and Star Wars: Clone Wars. So far, it's running about 15-20% ahead, so using that math, 120% of $421 million = $507 million. Poor Dark Knight, it might have to settle for being the number two grossing movie of all time. Smallest sign of peril - it's second Saturday ($28 million) was actually the third-biggest second Saturday, behind Shrek 2 and Spider-Man, despite having bigger second-Fridays then both of them. Smallest sign of uber-hope - it did more on Sunday than Friday.

Ironically, in the global market, it may have to settle for third place. Batman films have never been overseas juggernauts (as I've mentioned elsewhere, Batman lost the global crown to Indiana Jones 3 back in 1989), so Indiana Jones 4's $800 million global take could be out of reach. And, truth be told, the number one international hit of the year will likely be Harry Potter And The Half-Blood Prince, coming out November 21st. I am looking forward to Potter 6, as it's one of my favorite books of the series. I can't wait to watch the movie with people who don't read the books, as this story contains the biggest 'Holy crap!' moment of the entire series. Still, it's too early to make any ironclad predictions about Batman quite yet.

Stepbrothers opened with $31 million. Mazel tov to Sony, who really did a solid stealth campaign on this one. Even as someone who kinda liked Semi-Pro (the director's cut especially worked better as a light Woody Harrelson drama than a wacked-out Will Ferrell comedy), the marketing for Step-Brothers was far superior in every way (aside from Hairspray, New Line Cinema couldn't open an envelope during its last two years). A clear knowledge of what the movie was about, those clever video posters, and jokes that you could actually put in the trailer (yes it was R too, but Semi-Pro's jokes were the sort of verbal vulgarity that you couldn't put in a trailer). Love live the R-rated Will Ferrell comedy. Mama Mia! grossed $17.7 million in its second weekend. Down a solid 36 % for a 10-day $62.5 million total, this one is flying past Hairspray despite some struggling during the week. Granted, I think that Hairspray is a far better film in every way, but Mama Mia is a darn good time and its success can only be a good thing for the demographics that it targeted. Nice work, Universal. And, guys, lay off Pierce Brosnan. He sounds just fine if you don't look at his over-the-top mouth movements (for songs to be recorded and dubbed in) that were probably the fault of bad direction. On the soundtrack, he sounds just fine. He just looks goofy onscreen.

The X-Files: I Want To Believe: $10.0 million. It was like Serenity, only mediocre! I saw it Friday morning, and unless they get more money, get an R rating, and bring in Martin Campbell to revitalize the franchise, I'll be waiting till BluRay next time. It's not a ghastly movie, just a very cheap-looking, slow and mediocre one (it does have one great visual scene which will remind people of Brian DePalma). Anyway, only the die-hards came out for this one, and a pox on Fox for opening this on the same weekend as the Comic Con. For a movie this geek-entrenched, that was suicide. Waiting till next weekend and letting the cast a crew do a bit for the crowd this weekend could have given you an extra $5 million (of course, making a better movie wouldn't have hurt, but I digress). Rest in Peace, beloved television show. Burn in hell, dumbed-down overly on-the-nose movies that make the show look bad (Fight The Future, I'm talking about you too). Fun fact (minor spoiler) - at the end of the film, when a surprise cameo appears, I laughed to myself in realization that he/she was the only person who could cameo in this film because every other major supporting character on the show has been killed off.

Other bits -

Journey To The Center Of The Earth is holding incredibly, having dropped a mere 21% in weekend three. This $45 million production has already crossed $60 million. This one could theoretically make it to $90 million. Hancock has passed the $200 million mark, Wall-E will get there next weekend. Poor Hellboy II looks to stuggle to get to $80 million. A damn shame as this was one of the best films of the summer. Wanted looks to die at $135 million just as I figured (same situation as the equally terrible Tomb Raider), and Get Smart will top at $130 million (it cost $80 million, but a lot of that apparently was paid for by product plugs and tie-ins). Sex And The City has crossed $150 million, Prince Caspian has crossed $140 million (and $300 million globally), The Incredible Hulk has finally equaled the $132 million of Ang Lee's Hulk (sigh). Space Chimps looks to close out at $25 million (which would amusingly put it in the upper-wrung of bargain basement cartoons).

More wrongheaded predictions on Thursday night as The Mummy 3 looks to somehow measure up to its predecessor's shattering $69 million opening seven years ago (it was the mega-opening that started the trend of mega-openings).

Scott Mendelson

Weekend Box Office Bingo...

Another tough nut to crack. Here's my iron-clad prediction - The Dark Knight will be number 01 again (wow, I sure am ballsy).

The Dark Knight - $85 million. It's impossible to guess how much it will drop in the second weekend, especially in light of the obscene weekday business (it did $64 million on just Mon-Wed, which would have made it the third-biggest three-day opening of the year). Still, the rush of repeat business during the week could hurt would-be repeat business this weekend, as moviegoers decide to take a break from Batsy to check out the new releases (or, god willing, catch up on Hellboy II). Also, anecdotal evidence suggests that the press-coverage of said weekend and weekday coverage may scare away the casually interested, who may wait till the week or next weekend to avoid crowds. Still, the fan-love of this film and casual interest of this 'event' will more than prevent the usual 60%+ drop that mega-openers often face. So, yes, it most likely will crack $300 million by Sunday, if not Saturday. And, no, I will not be all that surprised if it only drops 37% and pulls off the first-ever $100 million non-opening weekend.

Stepbrothers - $22 million. Hard to peg, since the tracking is similar to Semi-Pro, which surprised with a mere $15 million last March. Still, the ad campaign is much better and forceful this time around (those video posters with Ferrell and Reilly picking on each other are genuinely clever), and the film feels like enough of a departure for Ferrell to bring in the faithful. The reviews are been mixed-to-positive and the film just looks funnier than Semi-Pro (although that film is slightly better than its reputation). For anyone looking for a straight comedy, this has been the only game in town thus far this summer. Although it will hurt the bottom line, as it did on Semi-Pro, it's nice that Ferrell is now making R-rated comedies. We'll see if that keeps up even if this one under performs.

X-Files: I Want To Believe - $20 million. At a cost of merely $35 million, this sequel merely needs to survive in order to turn a long-term profit. The reviews are mediocre, although many of the reviews are complaining that the film is either too much for newbies, not enough for newbies, or plays like an extended episode of the show (as if that's a bad thing considering the show's consistent quality). If not for the juggernaut that is Batman, I'd expect this one to get closer to $25 million, and that may still happen. The X-Files fan base is still relatively obsessed, and even the casual fans (like myself) are likely looking forward to a reunion with old friends. Again, I ask, if the film was going to be made so cheaply, why not go for an R-rating? THAT would have gotten the mainstream public at least a little curious. Anyway, I'd imagine that the film will do about 40% of its business over the next three days, but Fox was smart to restrict the budget and may yet get a franchise of 'stand-alone' episodes every few years.

Both of the above could easily switch places and either of them could hit the $25 million mark.

Check back tomorrow afternoon for a rundown of the Friday night numbers (remember, I won't be first because I want to wait till the ACCURATE estimates come in).

Scott Mendelson

X-Files - Scully's tragic journey

Salon's Rebecca Traister has a nice article up about her hero-worship of Dana Scully over the years. As the second movie is about to be released, it is worth noting that for me, and perhaps for the creator himself, Chris Carter, the show was never really about Fox Mulder. No, the journey that we were taking for nine long years was really the tragic assimilation and destruction of Dana Scully.

Fox Mulder was the freak, the loner, and the brainy, handsome loser. Instead of using his intelligence and knack for profiling to work in the prestigious behavioral science unit, he chose to work in the basement on a little-funded section called 'The X-Files'. Aliens, ghosts, monsters, ESP, and all manner of 'unexplained phenomena' was the gimmick. Obsessed with his nine-year old sister's apparent alien abduction, Mulder had allowed his obsessions to dominate his life and his career.

But Dana Scully was different. She had a promising career as both an FBI agent and a doctor. Assigned to basically spy on 'Spooky' Mulder, she quickly proved a solid counter balance. Mulder was quick to believe, while Scully used reason and science to counter her new partner's wild assumptions.

For the record, there is a common misconception about the show, that of Scully always being wrong and Mulder always being right. In more episodes than not, they ended up both being a little wrong. There usually was something unexplained and supernatural afoot, but there usually ended up being a scientific explanation behind the phenomena. It often was a haunted house or a monster in the woods, but there was usually established science behind the haunting and that monster always had a biological origin.

Alas, for Scully, her tragedy was that as the years went on, she quickly became enveloped in the far-reaching conspiracy that made up the 'mythology'. Her twin sister was murdered, she was abducted (by aliens?), she was rendered infertile, and had tracking devices planted in her neck. As the later seasons unfolded, she would lost not one, but two children that were apparently (miraculously?) born of her fertile womb (one child died of a mysterious illness, the other was giving to a random farm family for adaption). To be fair, Mulder paid a terrible price as well, losing his father to gunfire and learning some very disturbing secrets about his family history in the process. But, it was Mulder's quest and his choice about whether to endure. Scully was never all that willing a participant, yet Mulder's obsessions soon consumed her as well.

After nine-years of ghost busting and alien-hunting, she ended her television journey as just a female version of Mulder. Embittered, alone, as completely obsessed with the powers that lurk in the shadows and the things that go bump in the night, Scully's descent was complete. By the end, with Mulder having left her in the final season, she sounded every bit as loony as Fox Mulder, every bit as distrusting, and every bit as cut off from the society that the planned to make her home. In the end, as she helped Mulder escape from government custody and went on the lam with him, she had signed off on every bit of potential that she had arrived with. While fans begged and pleaded over the years to make Mulder and Scully a romantic couple, their final union was one of bitterness. Scully ended up with Mulder because she truly had no where else to go.

While the first reviews are not overwhelmingly optimistic, they seem to imply that it continues that arc of Dana Scully and correctly renders Fox Mulder as merely the antagonist in this most unfortunate relationship. Considering all she has lost, it would be only logical that Scully would often rue the day she ever met the sunflower seed-eating, porn-loving, paranoid-nutcase who would slowly but surely wreck her life.

Scott Mendelson

Space Chimps rockets to $9 million in five days. The Dark Knight does $203 million in same.

First of all, Mama Mia is already trailing Hairspray by about $30,000. And Space Chimps continues its epic quest to $25 million (it'll cross $10 million today). Oh, and Indiana Jones And The Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull is about $1.4 million away from surpassing Iron Man in the battle for, um... soon to be second-highest grossing movie of the summer.

On that note...

Like the headline says, The Dark Knight has crossed the $200 million mark in a mere five days. Dropping a low 14.8%, The Dark Knight placed second on all-time Tuesday numbers with $20.8 million. Transformers made $27 million on Tuesday, its first full opening day (it had advance-night Monday night screenings starting at 8pm). By the time you read this, The Dark Knight will have surpassed Batman Begins' entire domestic total in just over five days. On Friday, it will likely out-gross the $251 million take of the original Tim Burton Batman, making it the highest grossing Batman film ever. Of course, adjusted for inflation, the original would have made about $433 million today... but hey, it's only Tuesday right? Amazing.

Frankly, in the era of the modern blockbuster, this is completely unprecedented. It's not just the sheer amount of money, but the speed and consistency of those large amounts. It broke the $200 million mark three days faster than the three previous record holders. It broke the record for best opening week with two days left to go. It'll likely make about $75 million from Mon-Thur, a total that only the very biggest blockbusters make on their opening weekend.

After a long, long absence from the top-tiers, Batman is finally acting like Batman. For comparison, mixing and matching the screen count and per-screen averages of Batman and The Dark Knight gets you $81 million for the first three days. Multiply that by 1.75 for inflation, then add $20 million for the Heath Ledger morbid curiosity factor and the front-loaded nature of today's business, and you've got The Dark Knight's opening weekend take almost to the dollar. Think inflation is too much? Consider that Batman cost $35 million back in 1989, 5.14x less than the $180 million budget of The Dark Knight. Each of the first three Batman films did unprecedented short-term damage to cash registers, so don't believe all the polls and pundits who give all the credit to Heath Ledger. Batman & Robin blew out due to infamous word of mouth and Batman Begins was just a trial run to get people back in the mood. If you make a good live-action Batman film, everyone will show up.

The difference is that none of the sequels had this kind of consistency. The sequels, specifically Batman Returns, pretty much invented the 'quick-kill blockbuster', in which a film opens huge, then plummets back to earth but still makes enough money in the first ten days to be considered a hit. Usually it's word of mouth, sometimes it's just a pent-up demand by a specific demographic that never spreads past the cult. Dropping 45-50% over your second weekend used to be a sign of distress. Now, it's called having legs. For comparison, in 1992, Batman Returns plunged 45% in its second-weekend and the panic bells sounded around the industry. In 2005, Batman Begins dropped 45% in its second weekend and everyone was relieved that it had legs and word of mouth following a softer than expected opening. But the word of mouth on this one is stunning and the numbers are barely dropping (hell, it only dropped 44% from Sunday to Monday, which is probably also a record for any mega-opening).

Obviously only an idiot would make long-term projections after five-days. Eventually, unless it's Titanic, and we shall assume it's not, it will eventually slow down. Spider-Man seemed a legitimate threat for number 01 after pulling in $223 million in 10 days. But, after a month Spidey lost momentum and limped to $405 million (it ended up number 5, which is where Batman ended up at the end of its run back in 1989). After it's $50 million+ second weekend, there were predictions that The Passion Of The Christ would threaten Titanic's all-time berth. Eventually, the faithful decided not to see it again and the film settled into a still-stunning $371 million.

I still believe to this day that had The Phantom Menace been well-liked by the geeks that it would have found that extra $170 million and crossed over (the perception was that everyone hated it yet it still made $431 million). And the sky would have been the limit had Pearl Harbor opened in November 2001 instead of May 2001. So, let's not start sending taunting letters to Jim Cameron just yet. No matter what, these numbers can't keep up because A) other geek-targeted films will flood the marketplace starting Friday and B) kids will be going back to college and school within the next forty-days.

Here are some fun numbers to chew on - The Dark Knight almost equaled Spider-Man's $114.844 million three-day weekend in just two days (by Saturday, it had $114.815 million). The Dark Knight can drop 53% next weekend and still cross the $73 million mark, which would set the record for a best second-weekend. And, if The Dark Knight drops the same 37% that Spidey dropped on its second weekend, we'll have the first $100 million non-opening weekend in history. Is that feasible? Not really (no more so than it equaling the 10% second-weekend drop of Twister or the 20% drop of Jurassic Park). Is it possible? Absolutely. Success feeds success. All of the free coverage will only make the mildly curious that much more likely to check it out.

Plausible numbers from here - $300 million in 10 days. $400 million in 17 days. The previous record is 44 days for Shrek 2, so don't panic if it takes a 'whopping' 25 days to make that meager $400 million. I will say with absolute certainty that it will be the highest grossing film of the year by this time next week, at least domestically (Batman films have a habit of being beaten internationally by Indiana Jones and Harry Potter). For now, anyway, Batfans and geeks alike are partying like it's 1989.

Scott Mendelson

1989... 1992... 1995... 2008 (plus a history of the opening weekend)

When I was growing up, there was no bigger franchise than Batman. When it came to box-office records, especially short term records, there was Batman and then there was everyone else. So, it is with great pleasure that I again witness my favorite characters reclaim the crown, to reclaim the records that they more or less invented. Yes, ladies and gents, The Dark Knight has now claimed the record for...
the biggest midnight gross - $18.5 million
the biggest single day ever - $66 million
the biggest opening day ever - $66 million
the biggest Friday ever - $66 million
the biggest Sunday ever - $43 million
the biggest three-day IMAX opening weekend ever - $6.2 million
the biggest total three-day opening weekend ever - $158 million

It's Saturday total ($48 million) was the number two Saturday behind Spider-Man 3's $53 million. Can't have em all I guess. Now, who knows how long these records will hold up? A history of the modern opening weekend... from Batman to The Dark Knight.

Back in 1989, the opening weekend record was literally broken 3 times in a month, as of course 1989 was the first modern summer of mega-openers and somewhat quick-playing theatrical runs. Indiana Jones & The Last Crusade broke $29.3 million over Memorial Day weekend ($37 million over the five days). Ghostbusters II broke $29.4 million in the middle of June. And, one week later, Tim Burton's Batman rode a six-month tidal wave of unprecedented hype to became the first modern blockbuster (in ways both good and bad) with a whopping $42 million in three days. Over the next eight years, that record would be broken four times. Batman Returns scored $46 million in June of 1992, Jurassic Park used advance-night Thursday screenings to cross the $50 million mark in 1993, and Batman Forever reclaimed the crown with $53 million in 1995 (scoring on Friday the first $20 million single day). Then, finally, in 1997, The Lost World: Jurassic Park stole the record right back with a towering $72 million over the Fri-Sun portion of its Memorial Day weekend opening (total for four days - a seemingly insurmountable $90 million - with a record $26 million on Sunday).

That record held for 4.5 years, bettering even such sure-fire record breakers as Star Wars Episode One: The Phantom Menace (it's five day opening pulled in a then-record $106 million, but the Fri-Sun portion netted a 'mere' $65 million). The record finally fell in November, 2001, to Harry Potter And The Sorcerer's Stone, which netted a whopping (but more or less expected) $91 million in three days (it's $32 million opening Friday was the first single day to nab $30 million+). That record stood for a mere six months, before Sony shocked the living hell out of everyone and steered Spider-Man to a mammoth $114 million over three days (its Saturday scored the first $40 million+ single day). Stan Lee to this day complains that Batman co-creator Bob Kane never lived to see Spider-Man whup Batman's ass (Kane died in 1998). For comparison, in 13 years, we had gone from a record $42 million weekend to a record $43 million single day.

That stunning result (and really, at that time, it was an incredible and unexpected feat, resembling the excitement of the first Batman's record three day run) lasted a surprising four years. Surely, had certain movies opened on Friday instead of Wednesday or Thursday, the record would have fallen sooner. The Matrix Reloaded, The Passion Of The Christ, Spider-Man 2, Shrek 2 and Star Wars Episode III: Revenge Of The Sith... any of those five possibly would have broken the opening weekend record had they not opened on Wednesday or Thursday. In fact, Revenge Of The Sith's first three days were a then-record $126 million, but that was Thursday to Saturday (its opening Thursday broke the $50 million single day mark). The record breaker came in July 2006, when Pirates Of The Caribbean 2: Dead Man's Chest rode a tidal wave of audience goodwill towards the first installment to a $135 million opening three-day. The original film was a leggy word of mouth smash, parlaying a $73 million five-day opening to a $303 million finish. As is often the case when films build slowly through word of mouth, the sequel exploded out of the gate. The record would stand for less than a year, until Spider-Man 3 opened summer 2007 with a colossal $151 million. Alas, no one liked the film and it collapsed quickly, still winning the year with $337 million.

But now, be it due to a dark and tantalizing marketing campaign, audience goodwill over the much-liked Batman Begins, the general popularity of The Joker, the early critical raves, or the curiosity involving the death of Heath Ledger... or a likely combination of all of that... The Dark Knight has, at least for the moment, returned Batman back to its place at the top of the box office mantle. This really was a perfect storm for Warner Bros, with the studio daring to market this $180 million picture to an older audience, with a quote-filled ad campaign ('Why So Serious?' will soon become a catchphrase) that capitalized on the both revitalized and faithful interpretation of The Joker. While Warner will never admit it, Heath Ledger's death early this year was a lucky break, giving the picture tons of free publicity and making the film more of an event than it already was. The board was set, the pieces were in play, and the film itself delivered in spades. Uh, take that Stan Lee? How about... mazel tov, Jerry Robinson!

Whether The Dark Knight will keep any for any of the above records for any length of time is in question. Depending on if they choose to open on Fridays, a few titles have a chance to break this stunning number before the inevitable third Batman film is released. Among the contenders - Transformers 2, Iron Man 2, the final Harry Potter films, Spider-Man 4, and The Avengers. But for the moment, Bat geeks and fans of quality genre film making can rejoice. The record is finally being held by a movie that most people actually really like (something that hasn't happened since Spider-Man back in 2002).

Not to be completely outdone, Mama Mia opened to $27.7 million, just $400,000 more than Hairspray, thus besting the record for the best opening for a live-action musical. While it's probable that The Dark Knight and Mama Mia each lost a few bucks by competing against each other, Universal did a terrific job of counter programming. Alas, for Universal, the real casualty this weekend was the exceptional Hellboy II, which lost all of its geek audience to the tune of a record 71% drop in weekend two (biggest drop for any movie opening over $19 million). Although it'll pass Hellboy 1's $59 million gross in a few days, $100 million is now out of reach. It'll do just fine on DVD, but it's a shame that this terrific genre entry had to be cut down by an equally good comic book adventure's ascent.

Stay tuned for more as we see how quickly The Dark Knight can race to $200 million and whether the alleged 64% of those polled on Fandango will keep their word about seeing it again. Come what may, it's a good thing that The X-Files: I Want To Believe only cost $35 million.

Scott Mendelson

Apologies for the delays...

There is lots to discuss and 'report', but real life has intruded just a bit. I'm back in town and all is well, but my wife caught a bug so I'm on full-on dad duty for at least the rest of the day.

Future topics (I promise)

- The Dark Knight's opening weekend numbers (apparently realism was a bad instinct - yay for optimism).

- Ebert cuts ties with 'Ebert At The Movies' and Roeper is set to depart - what it means.

- Various political nuggets

- The politics of The Dark Knight and the fallacy of its alleged 9/11 allegories (it's in there, but not in the way the pundits are claiming).

More to come and my apologies for the delays.

Scott Mendelson

Weekend Box Office Bingo...

NOTE - This is early because I will be out of town from Thursday morning to around Sunday morning. I will be back on Sunday for a detailed rundown on The Dark Knight numbers.
I've argued with myself back and forth for the whole summer about whether The Dark Knight could take down Spider-Man 3's opening weekend record of $151 million. No more pussy footing around... time to make a call and live with it.

The Dark Knight - $125 million. Tonight I choose realism over possible hyperbole. Because young kids will not be as large a force as other recent tent-polers, and because no film has ever opened to over $100 million when opening against any other major film (Dark Knight has genuine competition with Mama Mia!), and because only one film (Pirates 2's $135 million) has ever opened to over $90 million in July...

The reviews are glowing (hell, my 'A-' review is almost a pan in comparison), the online sales are through the roof, and everyone that I know wants to see this movie. I haven't seen this kind of anticipation for any event movie in a long, long time. Perhaps this weekend Batman will reclaim its title amongst super heroes as box-office champion. This is a character whose first series that broke the opening weekend record three times in a row (the first three entries opened to $43 million, $46 million, and $52 million). Batman Begins had a learning curve, not everyone knew if they could trust the franchise after 1997's Batman & Robin. Batman Begins opened to $48 million over Fri-Sun and $72 million from Wed-Sun and earned $200 million the old fashioned way - slowly and through positive word of mouth.

And as we all know, sequels to word of mouth sensations usually explode over opening weekend (Austin Powers 2, Bourne Supremacy, Terminator 2). The theater count will be a record 4,366. Plus, the kids who won't be allowed to see it may be compensated by the adults who will be drawn by the reviews and the cinematic pedigree. And, one can't underestimate the sheer number of people who will show up merely to watch a very famous dead man live one last time onscreen.

But, keep in mind that for this record to fall, The Dark Knight would have to come close to or top Spider-Man 3's $59 million opening day. That means that Batman 2 would have to gross $11 million more in one day than Batman 1 made in its three day opening weekend. And, kids will be a factor, perhaps a fatal one. Almost every review warns not to bring the younger set, so that will be a potential deal breaker. Frankly, most of the press comes from the record-setting online ticket sales, but Sex & The City sold about as many tickets online prior to opening weekend just two months ago. I'm pretty sure that Warner Bros. is hoping for something more than $55 million. I say this to warn against the naysayers who cry foul if it does not shatter any records this weekend. Make no mistake, anything over $90 million is a huge win for this sure-to-be leggy word of mouth hit. So, either it opens like Spider-Man 3 or it opens like Spider-Man. Worst case scenario, it opens like The Matrix Reloaded with $85-90 million. Don't believe anyone who tells you that the latter is a failure. But gosh I'd love to be wrong on this one.

Mama Mia! - $30 million. The reviews are pretty decent, the show has a huge fan base, and the ads have been pretty prevalent. Universal is going after the same audience that New Line chased with Hairspray last year, and they probably will get it. Note - if The Dark Knight pulls is $150 million+, downgrade this prediction to $20 million.

Space Chimps - $155 million. Wouldn't that be ironic? Ok, seriously, about $5 million.

Scott Mendelson

Weekend Final Numbers...

The List

Hellboy II: 34.5 million. Played like a decent genre entry, and the only reason it may not get to $100 million is the issue of competition next weekend. Let's hope when everyone sees The Dark Knight on Friday or Saturday, that they decide to catch up on Hellboy II on Sunday and the weekend after.

Hancock - Once again, critics are rendered irrelevant. And since most critics were wrong, yay for that. Falling a relatively small 48%, Hancock finished weekend number two with 32 million. With a 12.5 day total of $164 million, Hancock is guaranteed to crack $200 million and end up the third or fourth highest grossing film of the summer, depending on how ol' Batsy holds up after its likely gigantic opening weekend. Yay for challenging, arty genre pictures!

Journey To The Center Of The Earth - $21 million. Played like a solid family film. Don't expect much in the way of legs, but this $45 million experiment should finish a touch under $50 million with decent overseas business to be a boon. Of course, unless Warner Bros. finds a way to replicate the 3D experience on DVDs and BluRays, expect this to be an under-performing family title.

Meet Dave - $5.2 million. Shades of Pluto Nash. Nothing more to see here folks, move on along.

Kung Fu Panda has crossed $202 million, becoming Dreamworks' biggest non-Shrek cartoon ever. Yay for quality cartoons!

The Incredible Hulk now has $129 million. With a little more push, it should surpass Ang Lee's $132 million Hulk gross from 2003. Yay for terrible business decisions!

While it sure didn't break out, Kit Kittridge surpassed its $10 million budget. It's all gravy from here folks.

I'll do a super early box office bingo for next weekend sometime tomorrow night. I'll be out of town from Thursday to Sunday, so expect a super-exhaustive weekend report to compensate for missing the Saturday morning rundown. I'm betting a friend $1.00 that The Dark Knight does not beat Spider-Man 3's $151 million record haul. It's a bet I'd be happy to lose, so we'll see if fanboy fanaticism translates into mainstream mania.

Scott Mendelson

It's funny... period.

It's called satire. Just because The New Yorker thinks you're smart enough to get it without labels and thought balloons doesn't mean you have to prove them wrong (yes, Obama, this means you too). Maybe Limbaugh is right. Maybe the outrage over Bush and Co. has killed the sense of humor of most liberals. It's called satire and it's a pretty sharp parody at that. Going crazy because you think that someone else isn't going to get it is the epitome of stupidity, and the founding block of censorship. If you don't think it's funny, so be it. But don't be so stupid to think that The New Yorker is suddenly pulling for McCain. And certainly don't be one of those people who is terrified that someone else isn't going to get the joke. Liberals need to learn to laugh at ourselves again, otherwise the right-wingers really do win.

Scott Mendelson

"Thoughtful Analysis" from a friend...

Just posting this as a pathetic attempt to latch onto a friend of mine. Stand-up comedian Moronzio Vance has recently posted this video rant, entitled 'Puff Daddy Is Poison" alleging that rapper Puff Daddy has the reverse midas touch for anyone who associates with him (think Forrest Gump, but for rappers). Find out why below. Apparently, it was popular enough for Puffy to respond in kind, so if I end up dead in the next week, don't let P-Diddy get away with it.



Scott Mendelson