Apologies for the delays...

There is lots to discuss and 'report', but real life has intruded just a bit. I'm back in town and all is well, but my wife caught a bug so I'm on full-on dad duty for at least the rest of the day.

Future topics (I promise)

- The Dark Knight's opening weekend numbers (apparently realism was a bad instinct - yay for optimism).

- Ebert cuts ties with 'Ebert At The Movies' and Roeper is set to depart - what it means.

- Various political nuggets

- The politics of The Dark Knight and the fallacy of its alleged 9/11 allegories (it's in there, but not in the way the pundits are claiming).

More to come and my apologies for the delays.

Scott Mendelson

Weekend Box Office Bingo...

NOTE - This is early because I will be out of town from Thursday morning to around Sunday morning. I will be back on Sunday for a detailed rundown on The Dark Knight numbers.
I've argued with myself back and forth for the whole summer about whether The Dark Knight could take down Spider-Man 3's opening weekend record of $151 million. No more pussy footing around... time to make a call and live with it.

The Dark Knight - $125 million. Tonight I choose realism over possible hyperbole. Because young kids will not be as large a force as other recent tent-polers, and because no film has ever opened to over $100 million when opening against any other major film (Dark Knight has genuine competition with Mama Mia!), and because only one film (Pirates 2's $135 million) has ever opened to over $90 million in July...

The reviews are glowing (hell, my 'A-' review is almost a pan in comparison), the online sales are through the roof, and everyone that I know wants to see this movie. I haven't seen this kind of anticipation for any event movie in a long, long time. Perhaps this weekend Batman will reclaim its title amongst super heroes as box-office champion. This is a character whose first series that broke the opening weekend record three times in a row (the first three entries opened to $43 million, $46 million, and $52 million). Batman Begins had a learning curve, not everyone knew if they could trust the franchise after 1997's Batman & Robin. Batman Begins opened to $48 million over Fri-Sun and $72 million from Wed-Sun and earned $200 million the old fashioned way - slowly and through positive word of mouth.

And as we all know, sequels to word of mouth sensations usually explode over opening weekend (Austin Powers 2, Bourne Supremacy, Terminator 2). The theater count will be a record 4,366. Plus, the kids who won't be allowed to see it may be compensated by the adults who will be drawn by the reviews and the cinematic pedigree. And, one can't underestimate the sheer number of people who will show up merely to watch a very famous dead man live one last time onscreen.

But, keep in mind that for this record to fall, The Dark Knight would have to come close to or top Spider-Man 3's $59 million opening day. That means that Batman 2 would have to gross $11 million more in one day than Batman 1 made in its three day opening weekend. And, kids will be a factor, perhaps a fatal one. Almost every review warns not to bring the younger set, so that will be a potential deal breaker. Frankly, most of the press comes from the record-setting online ticket sales, but Sex & The City sold about as many tickets online prior to opening weekend just two months ago. I'm pretty sure that Warner Bros. is hoping for something more than $55 million. I say this to warn against the naysayers who cry foul if it does not shatter any records this weekend. Make no mistake, anything over $90 million is a huge win for this sure-to-be leggy word of mouth hit. So, either it opens like Spider-Man 3 or it opens like Spider-Man. Worst case scenario, it opens like The Matrix Reloaded with $85-90 million. Don't believe anyone who tells you that the latter is a failure. But gosh I'd love to be wrong on this one.

Mama Mia! - $30 million. The reviews are pretty decent, the show has a huge fan base, and the ads have been pretty prevalent. Universal is going after the same audience that New Line chased with Hairspray last year, and they probably will get it. Note - if The Dark Knight pulls is $150 million+, downgrade this prediction to $20 million.

Space Chimps - $155 million. Wouldn't that be ironic? Ok, seriously, about $5 million.

Scott Mendelson

Weekend Final Numbers...

The List

Hellboy II: 34.5 million. Played like a decent genre entry, and the only reason it may not get to $100 million is the issue of competition next weekend. Let's hope when everyone sees The Dark Knight on Friday or Saturday, that they decide to catch up on Hellboy II on Sunday and the weekend after.

Hancock - Once again, critics are rendered irrelevant. And since most critics were wrong, yay for that. Falling a relatively small 48%, Hancock finished weekend number two with 32 million. With a 12.5 day total of $164 million, Hancock is guaranteed to crack $200 million and end up the third or fourth highest grossing film of the summer, depending on how ol' Batsy holds up after its likely gigantic opening weekend. Yay for challenging, arty genre pictures!

Journey To The Center Of The Earth - $21 million. Played like a solid family film. Don't expect much in the way of legs, but this $45 million experiment should finish a touch under $50 million with decent overseas business to be a boon. Of course, unless Warner Bros. finds a way to replicate the 3D experience on DVDs and BluRays, expect this to be an under-performing family title.

Meet Dave - $5.2 million. Shades of Pluto Nash. Nothing more to see here folks, move on along.

Kung Fu Panda has crossed $202 million, becoming Dreamworks' biggest non-Shrek cartoon ever. Yay for quality cartoons!

The Incredible Hulk now has $129 million. With a little more push, it should surpass Ang Lee's $132 million Hulk gross from 2003. Yay for terrible business decisions!

While it sure didn't break out, Kit Kittridge surpassed its $10 million budget. It's all gravy from here folks.

I'll do a super early box office bingo for next weekend sometime tomorrow night. I'll be out of town from Thursday to Sunday, so expect a super-exhaustive weekend report to compensate for missing the Saturday morning rundown. I'm betting a friend $1.00 that The Dark Knight does not beat Spider-Man 3's $151 million record haul. It's a bet I'd be happy to lose, so we'll see if fanboy fanaticism translates into mainstream mania.

Scott Mendelson

It's funny... period.

It's called satire. Just because The New Yorker thinks you're smart enough to get it without labels and thought balloons doesn't mean you have to prove them wrong (yes, Obama, this means you too). Maybe Limbaugh is right. Maybe the outrage over Bush and Co. has killed the sense of humor of most liberals. It's called satire and it's a pretty sharp parody at that. Going crazy because you think that someone else isn't going to get it is the epitome of stupidity, and the founding block of censorship. If you don't think it's funny, so be it. But don't be so stupid to think that The New Yorker is suddenly pulling for McCain. And certainly don't be one of those people who is terrified that someone else isn't going to get the joke. Liberals need to learn to laugh at ourselves again, otherwise the right-wingers really do win.

Scott Mendelson

"Thoughtful Analysis" from a friend...

Just posting this as a pathetic attempt to latch onto a friend of mine. Stand-up comedian Moronzio Vance has recently posted this video rant, entitled 'Puff Daddy Is Poison" alleging that rapper Puff Daddy has the reverse midas touch for anyone who associates with him (think Forrest Gump, but for rappers). Find out why below. Apparently, it was popular enough for Puffy to respond in kind, so if I end up dead in the next week, don't let P-Diddy get away with it.



Scott Mendelson

Random curiosity...

Anyone else find it a little odd? This weekend is set to open two would-be mega-blockbusters (relative to cost and expectation). But the MPAA got it wrong on both of them. The Dark Knight is rated PG-13, but it probably deserves an R. Yet Mama Mia! is also rated PG-13, yet it is tame enough to merit a PG, if not a G. Random thought...

Scott Mendelson

Friday Numbers...

The List

Because July 4th fell on a Friday last weekend, the Friday to Friday drops are obscenely small and give us almost no information over how the holdovers will fare over the weekend. Thus we'll concentrate on the newbies and there isn't much to report there either.



Hellboy II pulled in a solid $13.9 million. Assuming moderate frontloading (sequel, genre film), figure this terrifically entertaining film to pull in about the $35 million I called yesterday (I like being right, especially about good movies doing well). Nice work Universal. I was at a Guillermo del Toro Q&A at the Arclight last night, and I can tell you that he is very appreciative of the support he got from Universal compared to Sony (those NBC tie-in ads were brilliant). I can't say where the movie will go from here, as while word of mouth is likely to be terrific, it's obviously going to get hammered by Space Chimps next weekend. Still, this is a terrific number for an offbeat, terrific movie.

Journey To The Center Of The Earth pulled in a solid $6.7 million. If this plays like a regular movie, it'll pull in about $18 million. If it plays like a kids film (with the huge uptick for Saturday and Sunday matinees), expect around $23 million. We'll see. Either way, this is a fine number for a moderately budgeted experiment (is Brendan Fraser the Al Jolson of 3D?).

Meet Dave... at least $15 million? I didn't say that, did I? Oh well. Eddie Murphy's barely advertised family sci-fi comedy was dead on arrival with a pathetic $1.7 million. Even being generous and treating it as a family film, it's best case scenario is $6 million for the weekend. If Murphy caves in and signs on for a Brett Ratner directed, PG-13 rated Beverly Hills Cop IV in the coming weeks, we'll know why.

More when the finals come out on Monday night or Tuesday morning.

Scott Mendelson

Yes, ladies and gents, Senator Patrick Leahy is in The Dark Knight...

I was so caught up in the movie last Wednesday night that I didn't realize who this was. But sure enough, not only is Vermont Democratic Senator Patrick Leahy in The Dark Knight, but he gets a major moment with The Joker. Leahy is a well-known Batman nut, having appeared in Batman & Robin and voiced a minor character in Batman: The Animated Series (he was the sheriff in the western-flashback Jonah Hex episode - Showdown), and written an introduction to The Dark Knight archives volume 1, a hardcover collection of the first four issues of Batman.

The Leahy clip (not a spoiler in any way)

And because it's actually relevant to the plot of The Dark Knight, here is Patrick Leahy opposing the gutless FISA 'compromise' that allows the Bush administration to continue warrentless spying and gives them retroactive immunity in civil courts for previous illegal eavesdropping. Barack Obama inexplicably caved on this one, but hardcore progressives like Leahy and Russ Feingold did not.

Scott Mendelson

Box Office Bingo...

This weekend is not one I would wager money on, as all three releases are hard to peg. As it is, this is just the calm before the super storm that is next weekend. Next weekend, there is a real possibility that a new opening weekend record will be set. Anticipation is through the roof, the reviews (those who broke the embargo, dammit) are ecstatic, and pre-sales are setting records. I already have my midnight Arclight Dome tickets, and I'm going in full space monkey gear. Yes, Space Chimps is really going to rip the snot out of the box office. But enough about next weekend...

Hellboy II - $35 million. The original opened to $23 million back in April of 2004, so inflation alone would probably get this follow-up to close to $30 million. This may or may not be a case of a small film that grows on video and then the sequel explodes on opening weekend (Terminator 2, Austin Powers 2, The Bourne Supremacy, probably The Dark Knight next weekend). But there are no stars in this sequel that mean anything to the general consumer. There are no catchphrases from the original to use as a lynch pin for an advertising campaign.

The positive reviews will help (I'll see it tonight at the Arclight), but the trailers are perhaps over-selling the fantastical and creepy elements instead of concentrating on the action. So basically expect the same people who turned up for the last one to show up here, with a marginal bump for those who saw and liked the original on video, the more front-loaded nature of movie going compared even to 2004, as well as a random smattering of art house geeks who want to see the next movie by the guy who directed Pans Labyrinth ('Pans Labyrinth 2 - This Time Shit Blows Up!'). Still, Universal (not Sony this time) did break the cardinal rule for sequels - never spend more on your sequel than the original made domestically. Hellboy made $60 million. Hellboy II cost about $75 million. We'll see if the rule applies this weekend.

Journey To The Center Of The Earth - $20 million. Really, this is just throwing darts at a wall. The main appeal (perhaps the only appeal save for die-hard Brendan Fraser fans like myself?) is the 3D imagery, which is supposed to be quite good. The reviews are surprisingly positive and the PG rating will help pull in the youngest action lovers who have been undernourished since Indiana Jones And The Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull 1.5 months ago. The good news is that this one only cost $45 million. The bad news is that while kids films usually print money on DVD, unless they figure out a way to do the 3D effect for BluRay, ala the upcoming Disney Hannah Montana concert film BluRay, I can't imagine this will be a very popular video title (ie - it's theatrical success or death).

After several years more or less out of action, it's great to see Brendan Fraser back in the game with this entry and the upcoming (and allegedly good) Mummy: Tomb Of The Dragon Emperor. The tricky performances he gives amidst all the green screen chaos, not condescending but not overly reverent, are not to be underestimated. Be it the Mummy series, George Of The Jungle, or Looney Tunes - Back In Action, Fraser does larger than life aww-shucks heroism better than anyone else today. And he bloody-well should have won an Emmy for his guest starring bits on Scrubs back in 2002 and 2004 (of course, everyone involved with that show should have won an Emmy by now, if not a Nobel Peace Prize).

Meet Dave - $15 million. Another tricky one to figure, since the advertising has been relatively low-key (save for the terrifying floating Eddie Murphy head), with most of the ads appearing on kid-friendly stations. Still, Eddie Murphy has done well in the PG family comedy arena in the last ten years (what, you thought that people saw Daddy Daycare for Angelica Huston and Lacey Chabert?).

But the title tells you nothing about the movie, as they should have kept the original title, 'Spaceship Dave'. Perhaps they were avoiding comparisons to Murphy's last sci-fi epic, the record all-time biggest money loser Pluto Nash (at a cost of about $130 million including marketing, it grossed $7.1 million worldwide). Still, it's PG, it's short (90 minutes), and it's Eddie Murphy in a high-concept kid-comedy. Figure it for at least $15 million although I wouldn't be shocked if it did 50% more.


Holdovers -

Hancock - $28 million. Last week's champion rode over vengeful reviews to a $62.6 million three-day take. Word of mouth was mixed, though better than the critical word. The fact that we're coming off a major holiday means that Hancock will drop at least 50%, but 55% is in line with recent July 4th openers. Still, if Hancock holds better and Hellboy II fails to build on its predecessor, Hancock will end up repeating its run at number 1, something that only Iron Man has achieved this summer.

Wall-E - $20 million. Expect a leveling off of its larger-than-expected 47% drop.

Wanted - $8 million. Down another 55%. Good riddance.

I'll update tomorrow when the Friday numbers roll in.

Scott Mendelson

What Wall-E gets wrong about obesity and the enviroment? (Sweet Mother of Mercy... A non-Batman post!!!)

In the category of 'smart, thoughtful articles that you don't have to agree with to appreciate', Slate.com has a terrifically detailed article up now that deals with some of the allegedly simplistic ideas and potential falsehoods found in the latter half of Pixar's Wall-E. I don't agree with every point in the piece, hell I may not agree with the scope of the article, but it's worth a read anyway.

I found the first half of Wall-E visually stimulating, but narratively inert as I didn't get into the robot love story. The second half is thoughtful when it fixates on specific characters (I find the captain's verbal and physical battles with the mother ship to be incredibly compelling), but it also makes broad somewhat stereotypical (and possibly false) statements and tries to pass them off as cutting-edge social satire. Also worth skimming is this heartfelt rebuttal to the 'fat = lazy' message of the second half of the Pixar film.

For a mathematically plausible, genuinely terrifying look at a similar scenario, check out Mike Judge's little seen 2006 comedy Idiocracy. It's disjointed, sloppy, and reeks of studio tinkering, but the central conceit is genuinely disturbing to the point where it works better as a horror film than a comedy.

Now, to be fair, Wall-E is overall a pretty good movie and is another entry in the thesis that permeates most of Pixar's pictures. Safety of survival vs the danger of living.

"I don't want to survive... I want to live!", the captain joyously screams at a key climactic moment. And that is the key dilemma for the Pixar universe.

In Toy Story 2, Woody must choose between living and dying as the favorite toy, or living forever as a collectors item. In Finding Nemo, Nemo's father must learn for his son to truly live, he must be allowed to venture outward and risk the various dangers that life puts in our paths. In The Incredibles, the whole family constantly battles with living in peace in normalcy, or living to their fuel super powered potential with the risks that come with that. Remy the Rat doesn't just want to exist in the world, he wants to contribute, to make it better using his natural gifts as a chef.

Base survival vs. full-blooded contribution and living. It's a fitting moral for a company that constantly challenges itself and has given the world such wonderful and thoughtful entertainment. I'd rather disagree with the a few points here and there of a good movie than suffer through a mediocre movie that has nothing to say.

Scott Mendelson