There will be no predictions, no guesses, and no analysis for the moment. We're just taking a second to do the cold math, using franchises that were created/rebooted in the last ten years. Basically, the list is "If New Moon performs like the opening weekend to sequel Y, then it will gross X over its opening weekend". The variable in play is the increase in opening weekend from the first film in the franchise to the sequel, multiplied by $69.6 million (Twilight's opening weekend) using only three-day Fri-Sun numbers. An asterisk (*) means that said movie opened on a non-weekend day (Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday). Yes, I'm aware that comparing pure three-day openings to movies that opened over a longer weekend screws up the data (having four or five days to earn cash obviously spreads out the wealth more so than having three days), but this is not a science project. This is purely for enjoyment, and outliers are not meant to be taken as likely possibilities (never, ever use Shrek 2's five-day opening to compare anything). Enjoy. And yes, I will be recycling this chart when Iron Man 2 and the inevitable Star Trek 2 are released.
Every franchise that I can think of from 1999-2009. The Matrix Reloaded/The Matrix ($91.7m*/$27.7m*) 69.6 x 3.31 = $230 million.
The Dark Knight/Batman Begins ($158.4m/$48.7m*) 69.6 x 3.25 = $226 million.
Pirates... Caribbean 2/Pirates... Caribbean ($135.6m/$46.6m*) 69.5 x 2.91 = $202 million.
Harold & Kumar... Bay/Harold& Kumar... White Castle ($14.9m/$5.4m) 69.6 x 2.76 = $192 million.
Shrek 2/Shrek ($108m*/$42.3m) 69.6 x 2.55 = $177 million.
American Pie 2/American Pie ($45.1m/$18.7m) 69.6 x = 2.4 = $167 million.
The Ring Two/The Ring ($35m/$15m) 69.6 x 2.3 = $162 million
The Bourne Supremacy/The Bourne Identity ($52.5m/$27.1m) 69.6 x 1.93 = $134 million.
A Night at the Museum 2/A Night at the Museum ($54.1m/$30.4m) 69.6 x = 1.78 = $123 million.
Saw II/Saw ($31.7m/$18.2m) 69.6 x 1.74 = $121 million.
Quantum Of Solace/Casino Royale ($67.5m/$40.8m) 69.6x 1.65 = $115 million.
Final Destination 2/Final Destination ($16m/$10m) 69.6 x 1.6 = $111 million.
X2: X-Men United/X-Men ($85.5m/$54.4m) 69.6 x 1.57 = $109 million.
The Mummy Returns/The Mummy ($68.1m/$43.3m) 69.6 x 1.57 = $109 million.
Transformers 2/Transformers ($108.9m*/$70.5m*) 69.6 x 1.54 = $107 million.
Ice Age: The Meltdown/Ice Age ($68m/$46.3m) 69.6 x 1.46 = $102 million.
Madagascar 2/Madagascar ($63m/$47.2m*) 69.6 x 1.33 = $93 million.
The Two Towers/The Fellowship of the Ring ($62m*/$47.2m*) 69.6 x 1.31 = $91.4 million.
National Treasure 2/National Treasure ($44.7m/$35.1m) 69.6 x 1.27 = $88 million.
2 Fast 2 Furious/Fast and the Furious ($50.4m/$40m) 69.5 x 1.26 = $88 million.
Shanghai Knights/Shanghai Noon ($19.6m/$15.6m*) 69.6 x 1.26 = $87 million.
Attack of the Clones/The Phantom Menace ($80m*/$64.8m*) 69.6 x 1.23 = $86 million
Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer/Fantastic Four ($58m/$56m) 69.6 x 1.03 = $72 million.
Ocean's 12/Ocean's 11 ($39.1m/$38.1m) 69.6 x 1.02 = $71 million.
Harry Potter 2/Harry Potter 1 ($88.3m/$90.2m) 69.6 x 0.98 = $68 million.
Prince Caspian/Lion, Witch, and Wardrobe ($55m/$65.5m) 69.6 x 0.89 = $62 million.
The Incredible Hulk/The Hulk ($55.4m/$62.1m) 69.6 x 0.89 = $62 million.
Spider-Man 2/Spider-Man $88.1m*/$114.8m) 69.6 x 0.76 = $53 million.
Texas Chainsaw Massacre: Beginning/Texas Chainsaw Massacre ($18.5m/$28m) 69.6 x 0.66 = $46 million.
Halloween 2/Halloween ($16.3m/$26.3m*) 69.6 x 0.62 = $43 million.
Angels and Demons/The Da Vinci Code ($46.2m/$77m) 69.6 x 0.6 = $41 million.
Scooby Doo 2: Monster's Unleashed/Scooby Doo ($29.4m/$54.1m) 69.6 x 0.54 = $37 million.
The Grudge 2/The Grudge ($20.8m/$39.1m) 69.6 x 0.53 = $37 million.
Scary Movie 2/ Scary Movie ($20.5m*/$42.3m) 69.6 x 0.48 = $33 million.
Tomb Raider Cradle of Life/Tomb Raider ($21.7m/$47.7m) 69.6 x 0.45 = $32 million.
Hostel 2/Hostel ($8.2m/$19.5m) 69.6 x 0.42 = $29 million.
For those 'fair play' sorts, here are just franchises where both entries had stand-alone three day Fri-Sun opening weekends or both opened on the same day for their four or five-day weekend.Harold & Kumar... Bay/Harold& Kumar... White Castle ($14.9m/$5.4m) 69.6 x 2.76 = $192 million.
American Pie 2/American Pie ($45.1m/$18.7m) 69.6 x = 2.4 = $167 million.
The Ring Two/The Ring ($35m/$15m) 69.6 x 2.3 = $162 million
The Bourne Supremacy/The Bourne Identity ($52.5m/$27.1m) 69.6 x 1.93 = $134 million.
Night at the Museum 2/Night at the Museum ($54.1m/$30.4m) 69.6 x = 1.78 = $123 million.
Saw II/Saw ($31.7m/$18.2m) 69.6 x 1.74 = $121 million.
Quantum Of Solace/Casino Royale ($67.5m/$40.8m) 69.6x 1.65 = $115 million.
Final Destination 2/Final Destination ($16m/$10m) 69.6 x 1.6 = $111 million.
X2: X-Men United/X-Men ($85.5m/$54.4m) 69.6 x 1.57 = $109 million.
The Mummy Returns/The Mummy ($68.1m/$43.3m) 69.6 x 1.57 = $109 million.
Ice Age: The Meltdown/Ice Age ($68m/$46.3m) 69.6 x 1.46 = $102 million.
The Two Towers/The Fellowship of the Ring ($62m*/$47.2m*) 69.6 x 1.31 = $91.4 million.
National Treasure 2/National Treasure ($44.7m/$35.1m) 69.6 x 1.27 = $88 million.
2 Fast 2 Furious/Fast and the Furious ($50.4m/$40m) 69.5 x 1.26 = 88 million.
Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer/Fantastic Four ($58m/$56m) 69.6 x 1.03 = $72 million.
Ocean's 12/Ocean's 11 ($39.1m/$38.1m) 69.6 x 1.02 = $71 million.
Harry Potter 2/Harry Potter 1 ($88.3m/$90.2m) 69.6 x 0.98 = $68 million.
Prince Caspian/Lion, Witch, and Wardrobe ($55m/$65.5m) 69.6 x 0.89 = $62 million.
The Incredible Hulk/The Hulk ($55.4m/$62.1m) 69.6 x 0.89 = $62 million.
Texas Chainsaw Massacre: Beginning/Texas Chainsaw Massacre ($18.5m/$28m) 69.6 x 0.66 = $46 million.
Angels and Demons/The Da Vinci Code ($46.2m/$77m) 69.6 x 0.6 = $41 million.
Scooby Doo 2: Monster's Unleashed/Scooby Doo ($29.4m/$54.1m) 69.6 x 0.54 = $37 million.
The Grudge 2/The Grudge ($20.8m/$39.1m) 69.6 x 0.53 = $37 million.
Tomb Raider Cradle of Life/Tomb Raider ($21.7m/$47.7m) 69.6 x 0.45 = $32 million.
Hostel 2/Hostel ($8.2m/$19.5m) 69.6 x 0.42 = $29 million.
Well, that was fun. Wow... that was more thorough than I intended. For all the talk about how Hollywood makes nothing but sequels, there were only around forty original films that received a second theatrical chapter over the last ten years (give or take any one or two that I missed). As we can see, comedies seem to gain the most between chapters (since comedies tend to open smaller and find a bigger life on DVD) while horror sequels generally tend to fair the worst. And, of course, the bigger the opening weekend for the first chapter, the less room for growth for the second one ($69.6 million is pretty huge to begin with). And the list above pretty much proves my 'Tomb Raider trap' theory, since all of the bottom rung entries were sequels to originals that no one liked in the first place, even in cases where the sequels were actually far better films. Where does this leave the probable opening weekend of New Moon? Since (to paraphrase Senor Chang) I am a box-office genius(!), I can predict that Twilight Saga: New Moon will gross between $29 million and $230 million for the Fri-Sun portion.
Scott Mendelson
No comments:
Post a Comment