Terminator Salvation debuts with $13.4 million.

Warner Bros. better hope and pray that audiences are just waiting to see Terminator Salvation at their convenience over the weekend, which they probably are (it's not a rush out and see immediately franchise for most people). But if this first-day $13.4 million Thursday number (which includes $3 million in midnight screenings) is in any way front-loaded or indicative of the demand for this picture, then Warner Bros is in serious trouble. Again, if the picture does $20 million or more tomorrow, then no harm no foul. Not every film opening over a long weekend explodes and peaks on opening day (think Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull or Shrek 2), but those slow builders are usually the exceptions.

Regardless, the troubling fact is that this fourth Terminator, despite the PG-13 rating, and slightly higher profile, made about $3 million less than the opening 1.5 days of Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines way back in July of 2003 (it had $4 million in Tuesday evening or midnight screenings and $12.4 million in Wednesday grosses). Now the T3 had the luxury of opening in the middle of summer vacation but, adjusted for inflation, the opening Thursday for Terminator Salvation is just under the first Thursday (second day of play) for Terminator 3. The reviews have been mainly lousy, even the fan boys are up in arms, so the word of mouth is an open question. It's worth remembering that while it may be cool to bash Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines today, the film maintains a 70% positive at Rotten Tomatoes, which is nearly double the fresh rating that this next sequel has earned. I'm wondering if critics and geeks are overcompensating and trashing Terminator Salvation as a result of the unabashed worship that they bestowed on the also not-that-great Star Trek two weeks ago. None the less, we'll know if this is just a bump in the road by tomorrow morning.

While Warner Bros. probably wanted an extra day to pad the total weekend take to make sure they were ahead of Night at the Museum 2 by Monday night, all they may have done is bought themselves a day or two of negative publicity by effectively slicing their opening day take into two days and thus making both days look underwhelming. We'll see.

Scott Mendelson