Box Office Bingo...

This weekend is not one I would wager money on, as all three releases are hard to peg. As it is, this is just the calm before the super storm that is next weekend. Next weekend, there is a real possibility that a new opening weekend record will be set. Anticipation is through the roof, the reviews (those who broke the embargo, dammit) are ecstatic, and pre-sales are setting records. I already have my midnight Arclight Dome tickets, and I'm going in full space monkey gear. Yes, Space Chimps is really going to rip the snot out of the box office. But enough about next weekend...

Hellboy II - $35 million. The original opened to $23 million back in April of 2004, so inflation alone would probably get this follow-up to close to $30 million. This may or may not be a case of a small film that grows on video and then the sequel explodes on opening weekend (Terminator 2, Austin Powers 2, The Bourne Supremacy, probably The Dark Knight next weekend). But there are no stars in this sequel that mean anything to the general consumer. There are no catchphrases from the original to use as a lynch pin for an advertising campaign.

The positive reviews will help (I'll see it tonight at the Arclight), but the trailers are perhaps over-selling the fantastical and creepy elements instead of concentrating on the action. So basically expect the same people who turned up for the last one to show up here, with a marginal bump for those who saw and liked the original on video, the more front-loaded nature of movie going compared even to 2004, as well as a random smattering of art house geeks who want to see the next movie by the guy who directed Pans Labyrinth ('Pans Labyrinth 2 - This Time Shit Blows Up!'). Still, Universal (not Sony this time) did break the cardinal rule for sequels - never spend more on your sequel than the original made domestically. Hellboy made $60 million. Hellboy II cost about $75 million. We'll see if the rule applies this weekend.

Journey To The Center Of The Earth - $20 million. Really, this is just throwing darts at a wall. The main appeal (perhaps the only appeal save for die-hard Brendan Fraser fans like myself?) is the 3D imagery, which is supposed to be quite good. The reviews are surprisingly positive and the PG rating will help pull in the youngest action lovers who have been undernourished since Indiana Jones And The Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull 1.5 months ago. The good news is that this one only cost $45 million. The bad news is that while kids films usually print money on DVD, unless they figure out a way to do the 3D effect for BluRay, ala the upcoming Disney Hannah Montana concert film BluRay, I can't imagine this will be a very popular video title (ie - it's theatrical success or death).

After several years more or less out of action, it's great to see Brendan Fraser back in the game with this entry and the upcoming (and allegedly good) Mummy: Tomb Of The Dragon Emperor. The tricky performances he gives amidst all the green screen chaos, not condescending but not overly reverent, are not to be underestimated. Be it the Mummy series, George Of The Jungle, or Looney Tunes - Back In Action, Fraser does larger than life aww-shucks heroism better than anyone else today. And he bloody-well should have won an Emmy for his guest starring bits on Scrubs back in 2002 and 2004 (of course, everyone involved with that show should have won an Emmy by now, if not a Nobel Peace Prize).

Meet Dave - $15 million. Another tricky one to figure, since the advertising has been relatively low-key (save for the terrifying floating Eddie Murphy head), with most of the ads appearing on kid-friendly stations. Still, Eddie Murphy has done well in the PG family comedy arena in the last ten years (what, you thought that people saw Daddy Daycare for Angelica Huston and Lacey Chabert?).

But the title tells you nothing about the movie, as they should have kept the original title, 'Spaceship Dave'. Perhaps they were avoiding comparisons to Murphy's last sci-fi epic, the record all-time biggest money loser Pluto Nash (at a cost of about $130 million including marketing, it grossed $7.1 million worldwide). Still, it's PG, it's short (90 minutes), and it's Eddie Murphy in a high-concept kid-comedy. Figure it for at least $15 million although I wouldn't be shocked if it did 50% more.


Holdovers -

Hancock - $28 million. Last week's champion rode over vengeful reviews to a $62.6 million three-day take. Word of mouth was mixed, though better than the critical word. The fact that we're coming off a major holiday means that Hancock will drop at least 50%, but 55% is in line with recent July 4th openers. Still, if Hancock holds better and Hellboy II fails to build on its predecessor, Hancock will end up repeating its run at number 1, something that only Iron Man has achieved this summer.

Wall-E - $20 million. Expect a leveling off of its larger-than-expected 47% drop.

Wanted - $8 million. Down another 55%. Good riddance.

I'll update tomorrow when the Friday numbers roll in.

Scott Mendelson