Weekend Actuals...

For the record, I kicked ass in the Box Office Mojo Derby game this weekend (placed third out of however many hundred in predicting the openers). Anyway...

The Incredible Hulk fell victim to credible front loading as it ended up with $55.4 million (a 2.6 multiplier). In real numbers, this is $8 million behind the $62 million that Hulk opened with back in 2003. Adjusted for inflation, it's almost $18 million behind. Say whatever you want about 'oh, it was dealing with the bad taste of the first one', but Marvel spent $160 million on this movie, and if it plays like Fantastic Four 1 or 2, or X-Men 1 (all of which opened to about $55 million), it won't even gross $160 million. So, basically, you spend $130 million on Hulk and it grosses about $132 million domestic. To 'reboot the franchise', you spend $160 million on The Incredible Hulk and then you hope and pray that it makes $160 million? That, ladies and gents, is why I'm glad I don't own Marvel stock.

Front loading (or word of mouth) also claimed The Happening, as it ended up in third place with $30.5 million (a lousy 2.38 multiplier). Word of mouth was pretty poisonous on this one, and I imagine my nightmare scenario of $75 million looks pretty plausible right now, if not enviable. Oh well, at a cost of about $60 million, it's still in the black after foreign and well before DVD. Still, Shyamalan can only annoy the masses so many times before they stop trying to kick that football.

Kung Fu Panda dropped a reasonable 44% to about $33.6 million. This is playing much more like a general audiences smash than a kid-friendly cartoon. Either way, word of mouth is terrific and it gets another weekend all to itself before the Pixar juggernaut plows into town. It's ten day total stands at $117 million, and it's doing very similar business to the craptastic Cars at this point (which ended up with $244 million).

Adam Sandler fans pulled a Punch Drunk Love this weekend, fleeing in terror from an Adam Sandler film that had the foul stench of quality to it. Don't Mess With The Zohan dropped a whopping 58% to end up with $16.3 million. The ten-day is $69 million, which puts it behind even last year's underwhelming I Now Pronounce You Chuck And Larry. Pity.

Indiana Jones And The Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull dropped a decent 35% despite losing almost 400 theaters. It ends weekend number 4 with $277 million and it's now Spielberg's third-highest grossing movie, behind Jurassic Park and ET.

Sex And The City dropped another 53% to end its third weekend with $119 million. It looks like it will indeed play like Eight Mile and The Village, movies that opened at about $50 million but absolutely collapsed after that, taking in 45% of their total take on opening weekend. A total of about $140 million should be in the cards. It's a terrific number, although the boffo opening and subsequent collapse adds an asterix to the whole dang thing.

Oh, and Iron Man is now at $297 million. So, so close...

Next week is battle of the (allegedly) crappy comedies, as Get Smart faces off against The Love Guru. From the sound of things, no matter who wins, we lose.

Scott Mendelson